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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - So... Will Nintendo be able to ship those 20 million Switch units?

They need more, unless Pokemon exceeds expectation



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Wyrdness said:
Megiddo said:

Last fiscal year had BOTW, Mario Kart 8, Splatoon 2, and Mario Odyssey

This fiscal year there's Smash & Pokemon

Smash and Pokemon are bigger sellers than all those games with the exception of MK.

Not spin-off Pokémon usually, but then again this is that spin-off that has the potential to sell as much as mainline games.



They aren't going to come close to 20m, but I've been saying that for a while though. I also think next year will be much better.



Likely. Needs to go up by around 30% compared to last FY. Better stock (which leads to better deals from retailers or even Nintendo themselves) compared to last year, due to supply issues, should be enough for that increase YoY. Pokemon in the holidays will surprise the doubters.

I do expect/hope they announce something for August-September. Though they have a good amount of 3rd party games that could go there (DBFZ, Dark Souls, MHXX), so maybe Nintendo just wants to give them a month with no 1st party game taking all the spotlight (like November last year).



Bet with bluedawgs: I say Switch will outsell PS4 in 2018, he says PS4 will outsell Switch. He's now permabanned, but the bet will remain in my sig.

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Lonely_Dolphin said:
Poliwrathlord said:
I say no. Smash isn't as much of a system seller as people think it is, and I don't think a watered down pokemon can carry it to 20M.
What makes you think Smash isn't a system seller? Also the main audience they're trying to sell Pokemon Let's go to wont care much about the quality me thinks. The game doesn't look blatantly bad to those who don't mind only having a small fraction of Pokemon.

Oh I don't have any problem with Let's Go, it's a day one buy for me. I definitely see where you are coming from about that game. About Smash, it's just in my experience that that franchise mostly appeals to Nintendo fans mostly, and not really most other gamers, and by this point most Nintendo fans have already bought a Switch. I don't know just my opinion but I could be wrong.



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There's not much to go on in terms of sell-through so far. Japan is up year over year for the fiscal year period; strangely enough, the legs of the big 2017 games have notably decreased in recent weeks, but there has been no negative effect on hardware sales. The momentum is definitely healthy, but it has to be seen how the year over year comparison develops in the second fiscal quarter, because the current fiscal year has no Splatoon 2. Sales in the USA don't look as good, but they haven't been that great last year either. Reliable sales data for Europe is hardly ever made public, so nothing to draw conclusions from.

Regardless of how fiscal quarter 1 and 2 play out, it isn't that much of a stretch to do disproportionally better during the holiday quarter. Should Nintendo lag behind their expected pace, they can make up for it by offering better holiday deals than initially planned. That would have a negative impact on profits, but the topic here is the unit forecast for Switch hardware shipments. 20m can be broken down to 3.33m + 3.33m + 10m + 3.33m throughout the fiscal year, because the holiday quarter tends to be roughly as much as the other three quarters combined. If fiscal quarter 1 turned out to be 2.5m, that would be significantly behind the desired pace, but selling an extra 0.83m during the holiday quarter isn't that big of a task, especially with a one-two-punch of Pokémon and SSB.

No reason to overreact when sales in a month or two are on the disappointing side. Always remember that anytime momentum slows down for a console, there are obvious remedies: Price cut and big games. The only caveat is that a price cut is less effective if it's done without big games, but in Switch's case there are 2017 games still going strong and the holiday 2018 is set. We already know that Nintendo has the games, plus their financials make it clear that a price cut is perfectly feasible if deemed necessary.

Switch would have to fall flat for the entire April to September period for there to be serious concerns that Nintendo won't be able to ship 20m units this fiscal year.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments

I've always thought it'd be more like 17-18 million



RolStoppable said:
There's not much to go on in terms of sell-through so far. Japan is up year over year for the fiscal year period; strangely enough, the legs of the big 2017 games have notably decreased in recent weeks, but there has been no negative effect on hardware sales. The momentum is definitely healthy, but it has to be seen how the year over year comparison develops in the second fiscal quarter, because the current fiscal year has no Splatoon 2. Sales in the USA don't look as good, but they haven't been that great last year either. Reliable sales data for Europe is hardly ever made public, so nothing to draw conclusions from.

Regardless of how fiscal quarter 1 and 2 play out, it isn't that much of a stretch to do disproportionally better during the holiday quarter. Should Nintendo lag behind their expected pace, they can make up for it by offering better holiday deals than initially planned. That would have a negative impact on profits, but the topic here is the unit forecast for Switch hardware shipments. 20m can be broken down to 3.33m + 3.33m + 10m + 3.33m throughout the fiscal year, because the holiday quarter tends to be roughly as much as the other three quarters combined. If fiscal quarter 1 turned out to be 2.5m, that would be significantly behind the desired pace, but selling an extra 0.83m during the holiday quarter isn't that big of a task, especially with a one-two-punch of Pokémon and SSB.

No reason to overreact when sales in a month or two are on the disappointing side. Always remember that anytime momentum slows down for a console, there are obvious remedies: Price cut and big games. The only caveat is that a price cut is less effective if it's done without big games, but in Switch's case there are 2017 games still going strong and the holiday 2018 is set. We already know that Nintendo has the games, plus their financials make it clear that a price cut is perfectly feasible if deemed necessary.

Switch would have to fall flat for the entire April to September period for there to be serious concerns that Nintendo won't be able to ship 20m units this fiscal year.

:D



Poliwrathlord said:
Lonely_Dolphin said:
What makes you think Smash isn't a system seller? Also the main audience they're trying to sell Pokemon Let's go to wont care much about the quality me thinks. The game doesn't look blatantly bad to those who don't mind only having a small fraction of Pokemon.

Oh I don't have any problem with Let's Go, it's a day one buy for me. I definitely see where you are coming from about that game. About Smash, it's just in my experience that that franchise mostly appeals to Nintendo fans mostly, and not really most other gamers, and by this point most Nintendo fans have already bought a Switch. I don't know just my opinion but I could be wrong.

I agree with 100%. with zelda, mario odyssey, and mario kart already on switch, i don't see smash boosting sales much. people said the same thing about mario  odyssey with the hype being through the roof, and it being one of the highest rated games of all time, and its sales are phenomenal, yet switch in ocotber and december had average sales, pent up demand included. There best bet is pokemon. i see that being hit or miss in terms of moving hardware.



They missed a pretty big opportunity this E3 when they still didn't do any good bundles or price cuts. This holiday would be there last chance.

People may think Smash is all they need, but it isn't good enough at all. major 3rd party was lacking, and 1st party is starting to feel like it is lacking as well. Only having Smash and Mario Party this year won't cut it good enough. Next year they need Animal Crossing and a really good Pokemon game.