Lonely_Dolphin said:
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Oh I don't have any problem with Let's Go, it's a day one buy for me. I definitely see where you are coming from about that game. About Smash, it's just in my experience that that franchise mostly appeals to Nintendo fans mostly, and not really most other gamers, and by this point most Nintendo fans have already bought a Switch. I don't know just my opinion but I could be wrong.
I've always thought it'd be more like 17-18 million
| RolStoppable said: There's not much to go on in terms of sell-through so far. Japan is up year over year for the fiscal year period; strangely enough, the legs of the big 2017 games have notably decreased in recent weeks, but there has been no negative effect on hardware sales. The momentum is definitely healthy, but it has to be seen how the year over year comparison develops in the second fiscal quarter, because the current fiscal year has no Splatoon 2. Sales in the USA don't look as good, but they haven't been that great last year either. Reliable sales data for Europe is hardly ever made public, so nothing to draw conclusions from. Regardless of how fiscal quarter 1 and 2 play out, it isn't that much of a stretch to do disproportionally better during the holiday quarter. Should Nintendo lag behind their expected pace, they can make up for it by offering better holiday deals than initially planned. That would have a negative impact on profits, but the topic here is the unit forecast for Switch hardware shipments. 20m can be broken down to 3.33m + 3.33m + 10m + 3.33m throughout the fiscal year, because the holiday quarter tends to be roughly as much as the other three quarters combined. If fiscal quarter 1 turned out to be 2.5m, that would be significantly behind the desired pace, but selling an extra 0.83m during the holiday quarter isn't that big of a task, especially with a one-two-punch of Pokémon and SSB. No reason to overreact when sales in a month or two are on the disappointing side. Always remember that anytime momentum slows down for a console, there are obvious remedies: Price cut and big games. The only caveat is that a price cut is less effective if it's done without big games, but in Switch's case there are 2017 games still going strong and the holiday 2018 is set. We already know that Nintendo has the games, plus their financials make it clear that a price cut is perfectly feasible if deemed necessary. Switch would have to fall flat for the entire April to September period for there to be serious concerns that Nintendo won't be able to ship 20m units this fiscal year. |
:D
Poliwrathlord said:
Oh I don't have any problem with Let's Go, it's a day one buy for me. I definitely see where you are coming from about that game. About Smash, it's just in my experience that that franchise mostly appeals to Nintendo fans mostly, and not really most other gamers, and by this point most Nintendo fans have already bought a Switch. I don't know just my opinion but I could be wrong. |
I agree with 100%. with zelda, mario odyssey, and mario kart already on switch, i don't see smash boosting sales much. people said the same thing about mario odyssey with the hype being through the roof, and it being one of the highest rated games of all time, and its sales are phenomenal, yet switch in ocotber and december had average sales, pent up demand included. There best bet is pokemon. i see that being hit or miss in terms of moving hardware.
They missed a pretty big opportunity this E3 when they still didn't do any good bundles or price cuts. This holiday would be there last chance.
People may think Smash is all they need, but it isn't good enough at all. major 3rd party was lacking, and 1st party is starting to feel like it is lacking as well. Only having Smash and Mario Party this year won't cut it good enough. Next year they need Animal Crossing and a really good Pokemon game.
Nah, I don't think so.
Switch now has no system sellers at all in the first 10 months of the year, there is nothing to spur the system's momentum until Pokemon in November, and Smash not coming out until less than 3 weeks before Christmas will limit its impact.
They really should have had Smash out in September or October, then 20m would've been a breeze. As things stand I expect hardware sales to slump badly between now and Let's Go.
I hope so. A lot of people I know are still waiting for a few more good games to come out for the Switch in order to justify buying it. If more people on the fence cross over then 20 million is possible.
| Megiddo said: 20 million Switch units is still possible. 100 million software units is far, far, far out of reach. |
If I remember correctly they reported 67M in the last fiscal year, so 100M doesn't seem that far off
The Nintendo eShop rating Thread: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=237454 List as Google Doc: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aW2hXQT1TheElVS7z-F3pP-7nbqdrDqWNTxl6JoJWBY/edit?usp=sharing
The Steam/GOG key gifting thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/242024/the-steamgog-key-gifting-thread/1/
Free Pc Games thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/248138/free-pc-games/1/
| quickrick said: I agree with 100%. with zelda, mario odyssey, and mario kart already on switch, i don't see smash boosting sales much. people said the same thing about mario odyssey with the hype being through the roof, and it being one of the highest rated games of all time, and its sales are phenomenal, yet switch in ocotber and december had average sales, pent up demand included. There best bet is pokemon. i see that being hit or miss in terms of moving hardware. |
I think you're mistaken here because for one SMO launched in the last 3 days of October so most of it's impact is in November where Switch blew away other platforms. and secondly we know from Nintendo's themselves that around 2m units were moved in December because they confirmed 10m sold via their PR in the first week of December then with the end of year financial report almost 13m had been moved these are not average sales like you're saying.
This is till march. By that time we will also have Daemon X machina or fire emblem or both plus new surprises. And I wouldn't underestimate the power of Pokémon. I think if Nintendo can make enough they will sell. And smash is just the icing on the cake.
Just a guy who doesn't want to be bored. Also
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