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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - So... Will Nintendo be able to ship those 20 million Switch units?

curl-6 on 15 June 2018
Miyamotoo said:
curl-6 said:

I wasn't referring to the financial year. The problem is that there is nothing to spur Switch sales between now and Pokemon. That's 5 long months for momentum to diminish.

Hole thread is about point of forecasted 20m Switch units that Nintendo are for FY 2018. Games like Paladins, Fortnite, Splatoon 2: Octo Expansion, Captain Toad, Crash Bandicoot, Mario Teniss Aces, Octopath Traveler, Okami HD, Monster Hunter XX, Yokai Watch, Dark Souls Remastered, Fifa 19, Super Mario Party...are more than enugh to at least keep momentum for Switch (but probably we will have better sales than in same time period of last year) until Pokemon arives in November. Also we will probably have some other annulments of releases that will be out before Pokemon (more 3rd party games), for instance Paladins and Fortnite were announced and released on same day.

None of those are killer apps though, not the kind of games that will make any significant amount of people run out and buy a Switch.



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Miyamotoo on 15 June 2018
curl-6 said:
Miyamotoo said:

Hole thread is about point of forecasted 20m Switch units that Nintendo are for FY 2018. Games like Paladins, Fortnite, Splatoon 2: Octo Expansion, Captain Toad, Crash Bandicoot, Mario Teniss Aces, Octopath Traveler, Okami HD, Monster Hunter XX, Yokai Watch, Dark Souls Remastered, Fifa 19, Super Mario Party...are more than enugh to at least keep momentum for Switch (but probably we will have better sales than in same time period of last year) until Pokemon arives in November. Also we will probably have some other annulments of releases that will be out before Pokemon (more 3rd party games), for instance Paladins and Fortnite were announced and released on same day.

None of those are killer apps though, not the kind of games that will make any significant amount of people run out and buy a Switch.

Well Fortnite can be killer app, and you relly dont need killer up to keep momentum and to have stronger sales than last year, lineup that I mentione is quite good and enugh to keep momentum and to actualy have stronger sales than Switch had in same time period last year, especially because in that period Switch had stock problems. Of Course when Pokemon arrives sales will skyrocket from November.

Last edited by Miyamotoo - on 15 June 2018

curl-6 on 15 June 2018
Miyamotoo said:
curl-6 said:

None of those are killer apps though, not the kind of games that will make any significant amount of people run out and buy a Switch.

Well Fortnite can be killer app, and you relly dont need killer up to keep momentum and to have stronger sales than last year, lineup that I mentione is quite good and enugh to keep momentum and to actualy have stronger sales than Switch had in same time period last year. Of Course when Pokemon arrives sales will skyrocket from November.

Fortnite's already available on every other device under the sun including on the go with tablets though, so there's no real reason for people to run out en masse and get a Switch for it. Last year during this period Switch had Splatoon 2 in July and Mario Odyssey in October, which gave the system big boosts. This year it won't get anything of that caliber until November. 



Miyamotoo on 15 June 2018
curl-6 said:
Miyamotoo said:

Well Fortnite can be killer app, and you relly dont need killer up to keep momentum and to have stronger sales than last year, lineup that I mentione is quite good and enugh to keep momentum and to actualy have stronger sales than Switch had in same time period last year. Of Course when Pokemon arrives sales will skyrocket from November.

Fortnite's already available on every other device under the sun including on the go with tablets though, so there's no real reason for people to run out en masse and get a Switch for it. Last year during this period Switch had Splatoon 2 in July and Mario Odyssey in October, which gave the system big boosts. This year it won't get anything of that caliber until November. 

Yeah, but Switch offers totally normal controls and its first huge free to play game alongside Paladins on Switch, and game is huge in any case so definitely will have some impact on Switch sales. Last year Switch also had huge stock problems in this time period so boost was limited, Mario Odyssey was in October while this year we have Pokemon in November (so we talking only about one month difrence) and Smash Bros in December, so we definatly talking about much stonger Q4 for Switch compared to last year.

So like I wrote, you relly dont need killer up to keep momentum or to even have stronger sales than last year, lineup that I mentione is quite good and enugh to keep momentum and to actualy have stronger sales than Switch had in same time period last year, especially because in that period Switch had stock problems. Of Course when Pokemon arrives sales will skyrocket from November.

 



curl-6 on 15 June 2018
Miyamotoo said:
curl-6 said:

Fortnite's already available on every other device under the sun including on the go with tablets though, so there's no real reason for people to run out en masse and get a Switch for it. Last year during this period Switch had Splatoon 2 in July and Mario Odyssey in October, which gave the system big boosts. This year it won't get anything of that caliber until November. 

Yeah, but Switch offers totally normal controls and its first huge free to play game alongside Paladins on Switch, and game is huge in any case so definitely will have some impact on Switch sales. Last year Switch also had huge stock problems in this time period so boost was limited, Mario Odyssey was in October while this year we have Pokemon in November (so we talking only about one month difrence) and Smash Bros in December, so we definatly talking about much stonger Q4 for Switch compared to last year.

So like I wrote, you relly dont need killer up to keep momentum and to have stronger sales than last year, lineup that I mentione is quite good and enugh to keep momentum and to actualy have stronger sales than Switch had in same time period last year, especially because in that period Switch had stock problems. Of Course when Pokemon arrives sales will skyrocket from November.

Most kids/casuals are fine with the tablet version though, and most more serious gamers will play it on PC/PS4/Xbox instead.

And I don't buy that lasting the next 5 months without system selling software won't affect Switch's momentum. To keep new customers buying your system you need to offer them a reason to buy, whether it be killer app software, a redesign, a price cut, etc. None of that is likely to happen in the next 5 months.



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Miyamotoo on 15 June 2018
curl-6 said:
Miyamotoo said:

Yeah, but Switch offers totally normal controls and its first huge free to play game alongside Paladins on Switch, and game is huge in any case so definitely will have some impact on Switch sales. Last year Switch also had huge stock problems in this time period so boost was limited, Mario Odyssey was in October while this year we have Pokemon in November (so we talking only about one month difrence) and Smash Bros in December, so we definatly talking about much stonger Q4 for Switch compared to last year.

So like I wrote, you relly dont need killer up to keep momentum and to have stronger sales than last year, lineup that I mentione is quite good and enugh to keep momentum and to actualy have stronger sales than Switch had in same time period last year, especially because in that period Switch had stock problems. Of Course when Pokemon arrives sales will skyrocket from November.

Most kids/casuals are fine with the tablet version though, and most more serious gamers will play it on PC/PS4/Xbox instead.

And I don't buy that lasting the next 5 months without system selling software won't affect Switch's momentum. To keep new customers buying your system you need to offer them a reason to buy, whether it be killer app software, a redesign, a price cut, etc. None of that is likely to happen in the next 5 months.

Most, but for some people maybe they only need one huge free to play game on Switch before they jump on Switch wagon, Fortnite will definatly have some impact on Switch sales, we will see how much exatly. Well we disagree, we can only wait and see, dont forget, Nintendo shipped 2.9m Switch units in January-March period that had only few releases, in both April-June and July-September periods Switch has much stronger line up than it had in January-March, also for instance in last year April-June period Nintendo shiped 2m Switch units, for same period of this year we probably talking at least 2.5m but probably around 3m so we talking about higher sales not just about keeping momentum.

Also you forgetting that Switch last year had huge stock problems from April to September, so Switch could have easily stronger sales in any case, especially because actually has quite solid lineup from May.

Last edited by Miyamotoo - on 15 June 2018

sethnintendo on 15 June 2018

I'm pretty sure they can ship them now supply constraints over. Wouldn't better question be if they can sell them?  If they drop Animal Crossing in Japan somehow then hell fucking yeah.



Miyamotoo on 15 June 2018
sethnintendo said:

I'm pretty sure they can ship them now supply constraints over. Wouldn't better question be if they can sell them?  If they drop Animal Crossing in Japan somehow then hell fucking yeah.

With Pokemon, Smash Bros and Yokai Watch, Japan will be on fire in any case.



Barkley on 15 June 2018
sethnintendo said:

I'm pretty sure they can ship them now supply constraints over. Wouldn't better question be if they can sell them?  If they drop Animal Crossing in Japan somehow then hell fucking yeah.

It is the better question, I can see them still shipping 20m this FY, and selling around 18m or so to consumers for the FY.



curl-6 on 15 June 2018
Miyamotoo said:
curl-6 said:

Most kids/casuals are fine with the tablet version though, and most more serious gamers will play it on PC/PS4/Xbox instead.

And I don't buy that lasting the next 5 months without system selling software won't affect Switch's momentum. To keep new customers buying your system you need to offer them a reason to buy, whether it be killer app software, a redesign, a price cut, etc. None of that is likely to happen in the next 5 months.

Most, but for some people maybe they only need one huge free to play game on Switch before they jump on Switch wagon, Fortnite will definatly have some impact on Switch sales, we will see how much exatly. Well we disagree, we can only wait and see, dont forget, Nintendo shipped 2.9m Switch units in January-March period that had only few releases, in both April-June and July-September periods Switch has much stronger line up than it had in January-March, also for instance in last year April-June period Nintendo shiped 2m Switch units, for same period of this year we probably talking at least 2.5m but probably around 3m so we talking about higher sales not just about keeping momentum.

Also you forgetting that Switch last year had huge stock problems from April to September, so Switch could have easily stronger sales in any case, especially because actually has quite solid lineup from May.

Last year from April-June Switch was still a hot new product driven by the earth-shattering arrival of BOTW; this year it's no longer the latest thing and hasn't recently gotten a killer app. But yeah, we'll have to wait and see. It will skyrocket in November, but between now and then I expect sales to be meh.