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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - So... Will Nintendo be able to ship those 20 million Switch units?

That 20m is shipped, so sell through need only be around 18-19 million. So far the Switch has sold 1.4m this fiscal year according to VGC, and it sold 170k on the latest update. If we assume it sells that much every week from June until November, that would be 3.7 million, for 5.1m total. This means Pokemon and Smash would have to push 13-14m systems in 5 months. I'm quite skeptical it'll happen, but we'll see!

EDIT: 3DS with the wombo combo of huge price cut, value saving bundle, SM3DL and MK7 still "only" managed 10m in the same 5 month period. Really don't think it's gonna happen unless Mario Tennis Aces/Octopath/Mario Party/etc. prove to be substantial enough that Switch reaches higher than 5m before November.

Last edited by Lonely_Dolphin - on 14 June 2018

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Mnementh said:
Hmm, the fiscal year is young, so much is possible. So far it seems they might fall short. Pokemon and Smash surely will move units, but they come late, Pokemon will affect five months of sale, Smash even only four. So far it seems unlikely, but maybe I'll get surprised.

Last year Switch shipped like ~7.2 million from Oct-Dec with Mario Odyssey in Oct (~9m) & Xenoblade 2  in Dec (~1m) as 1st party titles.

This year has Mario Party in Oct (~1m), Pokemon in Nov (~10m) & Smash Bros in Dec (~10m) as first party titles.

On top of that, this year could have holiday bundles/deals unlike last year. It wouldnt surprise me if they ship 10 million Switches in that quarter alone.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 said:
Mnementh said:
Hmm, the fiscal year is young, so much is possible. So far it seems they might fall short. Pokemon and Smash surely will move units, but they come late, Pokemon will affect five months of sale, Smash even only four. So far it seems unlikely, but maybe I'll get surprised.

Last year Switch shipped like ~7.2 million from Oct-Dec with Mario Odyssey in Oct (~9m) & Xenoblade 2  in Dec (~1m) as 1st party titles.

This year has Mario Party in Oct (~1m), Pokemon in Nov (~10m) & Smash Bros in Dec (~10m) as first party titles.

On top of that, this year could have holiday bundles/deals unlike last year. It wouldnt surprise me if they ship 10 million Switches in that quarter alone.

I'm aware how holidays drive sales. But still I think they'll fall short. I think Nintendo needs to ramp up to 200K weekly at the end of Q2.



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Megiddo said:
Mar1217 said:
People shouldn't forget that we're talking about the 2018-2019 fiscal that ends at the end of March for Nintendo.

So it got plenty of times to do that :P Also, they're probably gonna push out FE Three Houses for the beginning of 2019 (Feb/Mar). That's 2 other decent games to look foward that can push sales.

 

No because their FE trailer said "Spring 2019". Spring begins March 21 so at the very earliest you'd only get 1-2 weeks of sales.

Kirby was set for spring and came out on the 16th



MasonADC said:
Megiddo said:

 

No because their FE trailer said "Spring 2019". Spring begins March 21 so at the very earliest you'd only get 1-2 weeks of sales.

Kirby was set for spring and came out on the 16th

Nah they only said 2018 for Kirby.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cc3PAAije0Y

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Lonely_Dolphin said:
MasonADC said:

Kirby was set for spring and came out on the 16th

Nah they only said 2018 for Kirby.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cc3PAAije0Y

In the september direct? 



Yes they will, the switch has a killer q4 lineup. 10 million is minimum for that quarter



Mnementh said:
zorg1000 said:

Last year Switch shipped like ~7.2 million from Oct-Dec with Mario Odyssey in Oct (~9m) & Xenoblade 2  in Dec (~1m) as 1st party titles.

This year has Mario Party in Oct (~1m), Pokemon in Nov (~10m) & Smash Bros in Dec (~10m) as first party titles.

On top of that, this year could have holiday bundles/deals unlike last year. It wouldnt surprise me if they ship 10 million Switches in that quarter alone.

I'm aware how holidays drive sales. But still I think they'll fall short. I think Nintendo needs to ramp up to 200K weekly at the end of Q2.

Well if they do ship 10 million over the holiday quarter than they need to average ~3.33 million in the other 3 quarters.

Last year the 3 non-holiday quarters averaged 2.6 million. Q1 only did 1.96 million due to severe production shortages, thats no longer a factor so shipments this quarter should be higher even if sell through is slightly lower.

Also with Pokemon+Smash in Nov/Dec vs Odyssey in Oct last year, it should cause for bigger post-holiday momentum so Q4 should be higher.

 

Even if they miss their target, they should still be pretty close.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

I think it will be around 15 - 16million. Which is still Amazing numbers.



Pocky Lover Boy! 

Yes. Pokemon and Smash are both 10m+ sellers, and for two very different fanbases (there's some overlap, but you know what I mean). Plus, a REAL Mario Party. There's no danger of them not making it to 20 million, unless they aren't able to produce enough.

And people will probably dismiss this, but some friends of mine want a Switch now for Fortnite. They hate the phone version and want a real controller, but also want to play on the go. So, there's at least a small amount of people that the "port"ability convinces.