So... Will Nintendo be able to ship those 20 million Switch units?

[zorg1000]

Mnementh said:

zorg1000 said:

Last year Switch shipped like ~7.2 million from Oct-Dec with Mario Odyssey in Oct (~9m) & Xenoblade 2  in Dec (~1m) as 1st party titles.

This year has Mario Party in Oct (~1m), Pokemon in Nov (~10m) & Smash Bros in Dec (~10m) as first party titles.

On top of that, this year could have holiday bundles/deals unlike last year. It wouldnt surprise me if they ship 10 million Switches in that quarter alone.

I'm aware how holidays drive sales. But still I think they'll fall short. I think Nintendo needs to ramp up to 200K weekly at the end of Q2.

Well if they do ship 10 million over the holiday quarter than they need to average ~3.33 million in the other 3 quarters.

Last year the 3 non-holiday quarters averaged 2.6 million. Q1 only did 1.96 million due to severe production shortages, thats no longer a factor so shipments this quarter should be higher even if sell through is slightly lower.

Also with Pokemon+Smash in Nov/Dec vs Odyssey in Oct last year, it should cause for bigger post-holiday momentum so Q4 should be higher.

 

Even if they miss their target, they should still be pretty close.