Great first post/question!

I think they'll hit 20 million..but barely. Pokemon and Smash are big system sellers. Mario Party and Fortnite are titles that can move units too by word of mouth. Hell I know a few people who bought a Switch solely as a mobile version of Fortnite. I also think Nintendo will show some stuff we haven't seen yet that will be available within this fiscal year that will help sales.

smash and 3d mario have always been very close in sales, and 3d mario has taken it to a new level, I don't see smash doing the same.

Smash has sold 10m plus consistently in its last two outings with each increasing in sales (Brawl sold 13m while Smash 4 sold 14.5m total), Ultimate will sell 15m LT easily and could go on to hit 20m on Switch only other title that consistently hits numbers like these is Pokemon and MK.

when would it ever be too late to announce a game? :S

I think they will make it. Pokemon looks better than expected.... Smash is a new game.

No fucking way. But it's going to be fun to see them trying.

EDIT: Ok, if they cut the price or release a new Switch version, like Switch Lite or Switch XL, yes. With the current information we have, no.

Yes.

Maybe.

But mainly, yes. Considering the projection was for FY '19, this should happen almost easily. Obviously shipped units though, because I doubt sales will reach higher than 17-18 million.

Those games are still charting on a weekly/monthly basis in all of the big regions.

Smash & Pokemon can each ship 10-15 million this fiscal year. So thats ~25 million with just those 2 titles.

Lets say the other 1st/2nd party titles like Labo, Tropical Freeze, Hyrule Warriors, Sushi Striker, Mario Tennis, Captain Toad, Octopath, Mario Party average ~1.5 million.

The big 4 of 2017 should each do a few million and the smaller exclusives of 2017 should each do a few 100k.

The 1st/2nd party titles alone can do ~60 million and as of March 31, 2018 1st/2nd party titles made up ~60% of total software so assuming a similar ratio this year and the numbers dont seem out of place.

Something to keep in mind when it comes to fiscal years for Nintendo.

We have ~9 months left, not the end of the year.

Fire Emblem can potentially make it for March. I'm not sure about Daemon x Machina as I haven't checked out the Treehouse footage. Looks interesting though.

Plus, there is bound to be another direct around the end of Summer/start of Fall.

Hmm, the fiscal year is young, so much is possible. So far it seems they might fall short. Pokemon and Smash surely will move units, but they come late, Pokemon will affect five months of sale, Smash even only four. So far it seems unlikely, but maybe I'll get surprised.