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Forums - Sales Discussion - Prediction ps4 will sell 130+mill systems.

 

Ps4 will end at?

110mill 16 21.92%
 
120mill 25 34.25%
 
130mill 18 24.66%
 
140mill 7 9.59%
 
It will beat ps2. 7 9.59%
 
Total:73
xl-klaudkil said:

For the gamers who thinks ps5 would release in 2019 could i ask what you expect hardware wise compared to the xbox one x?
How much will it cost?
And with what exclusive games will sony release the system with since all there dev studios are working on big ps5 games?

Sony doesnt need to rush, graphics like in horizon and god of war are good enough to last 2 years.

A system launch in 2019 is made prob wirh 2017-2018 tech and thats not a big leap


Mark my words sony is going to do the nintendo switch route, prob with horizon zero dawn 2 as there ps4 launch game in holiday 2020 begin 2021.

I'm a believer in 2019 launch date. The reason for this is ps4 pro. Sony was able to launch that machine in 2016 with 16nm transistor technology and polaris gpu. This proves that sony can launch new consoles with the latest transitors and cpu/gpu architectures very quickly.

As for specs, I have written this in my previous posts.

I expect a 8 core zen2 cpu with no additional threads so 8/8 clocked at 3,4 ghz.

For the gpu I expect they will just double the gpu cores they have in ps4 pro and clock it higher to about 1,2 ghz. This will give about 10,9 TF. Navi will be the gpu architecture. The system will have 16 GB of gddr6 and will be using TSMC 7nm transistor technology.

I upped clock rate for both the cpu and gpu from my previous posts as I believe sony should have no issue reaching those clocks.

449$ launch price.

As for games I believe we will see cross platform, TLOU 2 or Last stranding are good candidates for this. And even after this I believe sony will still support the ps4 for another 2 years with first party titles. This should work with no issues as ps5 will play all ps4 games.



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with upcoming games and another price cut for holidays i think it could happen



thismeintiel said:

Personally, I expect a Zen+ (possibly Zen 2, if they can get it out in time and cheap enough) CPU with 8 cores, a big step up from the Jaguar cores found in this gen.  A GPU that's basically an underclocked or slightly parred down Vega 64, which would be ~11-12 Tflops.  With 16 GB of GDDR6 RAM and 1-2 GB of DDR4 RAM for the OS.  I expect a price of $399-$449.  Who knows what they are doing for exclusives.  I'm sure they will have one or two, while relying on cross-gen support, like usual.

That all sounds very reasonable and is likely to happend imo.
To those saying its too weak, its not the CPU will be enough to make a impact on games.

Keep price around that 399$ point is much more important than it haveing a few extra Tflops.

Look at the Switch, its 400 Gflops when docked (PS4pro / Xbox One X are like 10 to 15 times as powerfull).
Does it matter? is the switch a flop that cant sell because its underpowered compaired to Sony/MS mid gen refreshed consoles?
its still selling fine.

Last edited by JRPGfan - on 25 March 2018

thismeintiel said: 

You do realize that the PS2 launched a year after the PS1 sold ~21M units.  And the PS3 was originally going to launch during a year when the PS2 sold ~20M.  Sony could have easily kept those sales going.  But, they didn't.  There's no reason to cling onto an old system, when the competition is moving on.  Or when you can sell to those who have had a PS for 5-6 years and are looking to upgrade, then selling to mid/late gen adopters in a few years after price cuts.  It's the model they have followed for most of their gens.  The only outlier is the PS3, which was mainly due to them wishing to make up for early losses, and because price cuts didn't happen til mid-gen to where the PS3 really took off.  PS4 is more than likely going to be more like the first two gens.


6 years for a gen, when tech is advancing quickly, is hardly rushing it.  Personally, I expect a Zen+ (possibly Zen 2, if they can get it out in time and cheap enough) CPU with 8 cores, a big step up from the Jaguar cores found in this gen.  A GPU that's basically an underclocked or slightly parred down Vega 64, which would be ~11-12 Tflops.  With 16 GB of GDDR6 RAM and 1-2 GB of DDR4 RAM for the OS.  I expect a price of $399-$449.  Who knows what they are doing for exclusives.  I'm sure they will have one or two, while relying on cross-gen support, like usual.

Wait, are you seriously suggesting that Sony is going to make a hybrid?  Seriously?  So they can have a new system that is going to be weaker than the Pro?  They came out with a highly successful traditional console that beat the hot new Switch in last NPD, even with a $299 price, in its 5th year, and is going to sell 115M+.  No.  Sony is sticking traditional.

Ok. so basically the gist of wjat you are saying ia that the PS5 is coming out in 2019 right? to keep with the PS "tradition" of launching a new console every 6yrs.

To keep this simple, I'm saying there is not a chance in hell that the PS5 comes out before 2020. If you are aware of any of my previous posts on this topic then you will know I firmly believe the earliest it comes oit is 2020. However I am even willing to double down on that.... its likely to come out later than 2020 ams not a day before it than any other scenario.

If MS ia not launching in 2020, sony wont release in 2020. If MS launches in 2019, sony will wait till 2020. Though there is also no chance that MS launches in 2019.

Think of this as a bet if you will..... time will tell.



Intrinsic said:
thismeintiel said:

We have had a recent rumor that dev kits are already in the hands of 3rd party devs.  Sony seems to be getting stricter recently about leaks, so we may not hear any real details til we are closer to its launch.  Still, even if it doesn't launch in 2019, it will launch in 2020 at the absolute latest.  Sony is not going to give MS the chance of having a 2-3 years head start on them, if MS decides to jump ship on this gen early to get a head start, which helped them with the 360.  At the latest, I expect MS to be ready by 2020 to push out another console. 

A year isn't that big of a deal, but 2-3 is just too much in this day and age.  A few of those who like to adopt tech early may jump ship if the XB2 is powerful enough and has a good price.  And they could possibly get quite a few mid-gen adopters as they will be ready to drop their price as the PS5 launches.  If they are really cutthroat, they would be able to get a $150-$200 price advantage by the time the PS5 comes out, which would be quite the obstacle.

You say 2-3 yrs as if MS is releasing their own console this year. And no way they are releasing next year either. 

Errorist76 said:

There have been specific rumors about developer kits already being with developers since mid of last year already.

Nah man..... thats not even nearly specific. Nothing like what these rumors are really like. Unless you really believe that within a year afetr releasing the PS4pro and trying to get support for it sony was already giving third parties dev kits? Ridiculous. Hell, I would have even given that rumor more credibility if they didn't mention third parties. Third parties are the last to get dev kits.

You guys should all just relax...... not a chance in hell the PS5 comes out next year (which is 2019). And if sony somehow manages to have another 18-20M year in 2019; it won't be coming out in 2020 either.

You're naive if you think sales numbers dictate a release date. New tech like this is planned years in advance. They can’t just decide to change the chipset and wait another year.



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Errorist76 said:
Intrinsic said:

You say 2-3 yrs as if MS is releasing their own console this year. And no way they are releasing next year either. 

Nah man..... thats not even nearly specific. Nothing like what these rumors are really like. Unless you really believe that within a year afetr releasing the PS4pro and trying to get support for it sony was already giving third parties dev kits? Ridiculous. Hell, I would have even given that rumor more credibility if they didn't mention third parties. Third parties are the last to get dev kits.

You guys should all just relax...... not a chance in hell the PS5 comes out next year (which is 2019). And if sony somehow manages to have another 18-20M year in 2019; it won't be coming out in 2020 either.

You're naive if you think sales numbers dictate a release date. New tech like this is planned years in advance. They can’t just decide to change the chipset and wait another year.

Time will tell, but 2019 is waay to early.

Money rules everything and right now ps4 is making sony more then ps2 ever did, noo way they will just stop that.

 

Times are changing and .2-4 tflop increase is not wat gamers want nowadays,then ps5 will be extremely outdated at launch.

And i donr want to buy a new console every 2 years.



 

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KBG29 said:

This would be a horrible move. If PS5 is that weak, then Sony would very likely be looking at another PS3 situation, only instead of being to expensive and unecissary, it would be to cheap and unimpressive. That would actually be worse, because at least to expensive and unecissary can get cheaper and become a neccesity. To cheap and unimpressive really has no where to turn.

xl-klaudkil said:

Time will tell, but 2019 is waay to early.

Money rules everything and right now ps4 is making sony more then ps2 ever did, noo way they will just stop that.

 

Times are changing and .2-4 tflop increase is not wat gamers want nowadays,then ps5 will be extremely outdated at launch.

And i donr want to buy a new console every 2 years.

I'm sorry, but what the heck are you guys expecting from these new consoles?  They're consoles.  They aren't going to have the most state of the art chipsets in these things, that came out that same year, but still be $399-$449.  Besides, ~12 Tflops and Zen+ is weak for who exactly?  Maybe the top tier of PC gaming enthusiasts.  At the start of the gen, we found out via Steam that over half of the gamers on there had PCs weaker than the PS4.  How many do you think, even if some upgraded, have a PC that have an 8 core Zen CPU, or equivalent, paired with a Vega 64 GPU, or equivalent.  Maybe 25%?  Probably less, I'd say.

These consoles are about getting as much power as you can out of them, while not losing your shirt with a $399-$449 price tag.  Console gamers are going to think they are powerful, even those who also game on PCs, since they most likely have PCs weaker than that.  If you want the newest chips, you can always switch to PC gaming strictly, but be prepared to pay for it.

JRPGfan said:

thismeintiel said:

Personally, I expect a Zen+ (possibly Zen 2, if they can get it out in time and cheap enough) CPU with 8 cores, a big step up from the Jaguar cores found in this gen.  A GPU that's basically an underclocked or slightly parred down Vega 64, which would be ~11-12 Tflops.  With 16 GB of GDDR6 RAM and 1-2 GB of DDR4 RAM for the OS.  I expect a price of $399-$449.  Who knows what they are doing for exclusives.  I'm sure they will have one or two, while relying on cross-gen support, like usual.

That all sounds very reasonable and is likely to happend imo.
To those saying its too weak, its not the CPU will be enough to make a impact on games.

Keep price around that 399$ point is much more important than it haveing a few extra Tflops.

Look at the Switch, its 400 Gflops when docked (PS4pro / Xbox One X are like 10 to 15 times as powerfull).
Does it matter? is the switch a flop that cant sell because its underpowered compaired to Sony/MS mid gen refreshed consoles?
its still selling fine.

Exactly.  I don't know about these people who are expecting Zen 3 and Navi+ GPUs in these things, yet don't expect them to be $599+.  Console gamers game because they are getting good specs for a good price.  It's not top of the line, but you don't want to pay for top of the line, so you stick with consoles.  I mean if you want to make a beast of a PC in 2019/2020 for $1000, go right ahead, but don't expect the PS5 to match it.



thismeintiel said:

I'm sorry, but what the heck are you guys expecting from these new consoles?  They're consoles.  They aren't going to have the most state of the art chipsets in these things, that came out that same year, but still be $399-$449.  Besides, ~12 Tflops and Zen+ is weak for who exactly?  Maybe the top tier of PC gaming enthusiasts.  At the start of the gen, we found out via Steam that over half of the gamers on there had PCs weaker than the PS4.  How many do you think, even if some upgraded, have a PC that have an 8 core Zen CPU, or equivalent, paired with a Vega 64 GPU, or equivalent.  Maybe 25%?  Probably less, I'd say.

These consoles are about getting as much power as you can out of them, while not losing your shirt with a $399-$449 price tag.  Console gamers are going to think they are powerful, even those who also game on PCs, since they most likely have PCs weaker than that.  If you want the newest chips, you can always switch to PC gaming strictly, but be prepared to pay for it.


Exactly.  I don't know about these people who are expecting Zen 3 and Navi+ GPUs in these things, yet don't expect them to be $599+.  Console gamers game because they are getting good specs for a good price.  It's not top of the line, but you don't want to pay for top of the line, so you stick with consoles.  I mean if you want to make a beast of a PC in 2019/2020 for $1000, go right ahead, but don't expect the PS5 to match it.

Those of us expecting actual next gen worthy tech, are not suggesting that PS5 will arrive in 2019 or even 2020. Yes, in 2019 or 2020, Ryzen + Navi with 12TFLOPs, 16GB of GRRD6, and a HDD is probably the best you are going to get. The question is, what is the point? This will not deliver anything remotely close to the generation over generation improvement that we have seen between PS Consoles.

Why should Sony release a new PS in 2019 or 2020 if next gen worthy tech is not ready? They can just make another PS4 revision, and continue to expand their userbase, and create good will with the consumers. If they are doing a 7nm revision of the PS4 and PS4 Pro, then a PS4 Premium to hold people over until PS5 is all they need. This will allow them to keep the focus on PS4 while as they start to reach out for the casual crowd with $199.99, $149.99, and $99.99 price points. The most important thing for them is to reach as many people as possible, and get as many people as possible using the PS4 OS, PSN, and the PS Store. Keeping the focus on PS4 a few more years will help them reach a wider audience, and set them up better for a true next gen PS5.

 

PS5 should release either late 2021 or 2022 when they can deliver AMD's Next gen GPU architecture at around 20TFLOPs, 64GB of RAM, and NVMe storage in every unit. That will be possible in the $400 to $500 price range by then, and it will deliver the generation over generation improvement we accustom to from PlayStation. This is the safe bet, as it gives them a steady baseline for years to come. If they drop in 2019 - 2020 with the specs being thrown around, the doors are wide open for competition to come out with devices that greatly outclass the PS5 within 18 to 24 months of release, at lower prices. 



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Errorist76 said:
Intrinsic said:

You say 2-3 yrs as if MS is releasing their own console this year. And no way they are releasing next year either. 

Nah man..... thats not even nearly specific. Nothing like what these rumors are really like. Unless you really believe that within a year afetr releasing the PS4pro and trying to get support for it sony was already giving third parties dev kits? Ridiculous. Hell, I would have even given that rumor more credibility if they didn't mention third parties. Third parties are the last to get dev kits.

You guys should all just relax...... not a chance in hell the PS5 comes out next year (which is 2019). And if sony somehow manages to have another 18-20M year in 2019; it won't be coming out in 2020 either.

You're naive if you think sales numbers dictate a release date. New tech like this is planned years in advance. They can’t just decide to change the chipset and wait another year.

What am I reading???

Forget sales numbers. Look at install base. Not just that, but look at PS+ subscriptions. Its likw people are forgetting the wholw point of consoles is to sell ga,es and in this gen.... run a service.

And the wait another year thing? Wake the fuck up..... Next gen consoles won't come until 7nm fabrication becomes a thing. Right now at best thats looking at 2020  for 7nm to become mature enough (aka cheap enough) to go into consoles. But lets not even stop there.... say sony and amd design a chipset to leverage 7nm fabrication. And make no mistake they have probably already designed said chipset or are well underway. You know why they haven't released it yet?

No 7nm.

You know what they stand to gain by waiting another year after whenever 7nm actually shows up? Cheaper APUs as a result of improved yeilds. The ONLY thing that will make sony release as early ia possible is if MS is releasing their hardware asap. Thats it. 

And I'm the one that is naive? smh....... do you guys think these companies look forward to releasing new hardware? lol......



KBG29 said: 

Those of us expecting actual next gen worthy tech, are not suggesting that PS5 will arrive in 2019 or even 2020. Yes, in 2019 or 2020, Ryzen + Navi with 12TFLOPs, 16GB of GRRD6, and a HDD is probably the best you are going to get. The question is, what is the point? This will not deliver anything remotely close to the generation over generation improvement that we have seen between PS Consoles.

Why should Sony release a new PS in 2019 or 2020 if next gen worthy tech is not ready? They can just make another PS4 revision, and continue to expand their userbase, and create good will with the consumers. If they are doing a 7nm revision of the PS4 and PS4 Pro, then a PS4 Premium to hold people over until PS5 is all they need. This will allow them to keep the focus on PS4 while as they start to reach out for the casual crowd with $199.99, $149.99, and $99.99 price points. The most important thing for them is to reach as many people as possible, and get as many people as possible using the PS4 OS, PSN, and the PS Store. Keeping the focus on PS4 a few more years will help them reach a wider audience, and set them up better for a true next gen PS5.

 

PS5 should release either late 2021 or 2022 when they can deliver AMD's Next gen GPU architecture at around 20TFLOPs, 64GB of RAM, and NVMe storage in every unit. That will be possible in the $400 to $500 price range by then, and it will deliver the generation over generation improvement we accustom to from PlayStation. This is the safe bet, as it gives them a steady baseline for years to come. If they drop in 2019 - 2020 with the specs being thrown around, the doors are wide open for competition to come out with devices that greatly outclass the PS5 within 18 to 24 months of release, at lower prices. 

Errrr..... no. Doesn't work that way. Unless of course you're just living out some kinda tech fantasy.

Say in 2020 sony releases a console with the at the time 6-12 month old 7nm fab process. And say they have a GPU that is oushing say 12TF.

If sony waits till 2020.... that doesn,t automatically mean they will be using some sort of next next gwn tech and be able to go from 12TF to 20TF. Just not possible. The most they get from waiting a year or two is that yeilds improve at 7nm chip foundaries which means they save money which could also mean that they could go with a slightly more powerful version of whatever they were workng on... either from uppping the clocks a bit (due to processs maturity) or adding a few more cores in there.

So basically, they may go from 12TF to like 14TF/15TF at best. Or stick with the 12TF but release at a lower price point. Or release it anyway and make a killing at retail per console sold.

And dont worry.... nothing will be able to outclass anything untill 3nm chips become available. Which could very well be by 2024-2026.