I had a rather interesting discussion with a longtime friend of mine about next gen and ps4 sales, he firmly believes the rumours of ps5 being annouced and released next. Year.

I on the other hand firmly disagrees.

My prediction for ps5 is set on middel or the end of 2020 or begin middle 2021 release, sony just doesnt need to rush the ps5 and in 2019 not only will all big sony devs still working on ps4 games so i wonder what games ps5 would get in 2019 i also wonder how more powerfull and expensive can and would it be compared to the xbox one x, i just dont see sony doing that.

I then claimed ps4 would easily hit 130+mill where he started lauging and believes it wont even hit 110mill.

Here is what i predict.

250 or 200 dollar/euro ps4 2018.

20mills (250 price) or 22mill (200 price)

Then another 16-18 mill in 2019.

12-14mill if ps5 gets released or else 14-16mill in 2020.

2021 150dollar/euro ps4.

8-12mill

2022 ps5 will finnaly start selling much more and ps4 will slow down a lot

Prob around 4-6mill.

2023 maybe if lucky 2-3mill

Making the totall of around 130-140mill when all is said and done.

Your friend is a pessimist.
If he thinks it wont hit 110m lifetime sales.

After 2018, it ll be around 95m or so (imo) if it does like 20m this year.
2019, 2020,2021 ect.... how does it not do another 15m to go over 110m (in those 3 years)?

110m+ is all but guaranteed, 130m is possible but might be pushing it a bit.

He belives ps5 will be announced this year at e3 or psx and ps4 sales will crumble down.

Many gamers really dont understand that damn thing is officaly still 299 after 5 years, there is enough room for growth.

Yeah I think 110m is set in stone, theres just no way it does less lifetime imo.
120m+ is pretty likely to happend.
130m+ is if things go "right" for them the next 2-3 years (like it things go well).

Sony does have to start cutting prices though, it shouldnt be 299$ in its 5th year.

I dont own stock in sony.
To me top priority is getting the console into as many hands as possible, that can then enjoy what I do.
Is it silly that I want others to enjoy games because I do? probably,... I could just be happy Im able to do so but yeah.

Yes I think in its 5th year it should be cheaper, and they have done deals before (where I assume their still makeing profit).
So yeah they could cut price, and just sell it at break even point (like 199?) that would be cool.

Dont they only make a bit of a profit with a hardware sale? And prob a lot more with the services and games a person buys when they bought the hardware?

A bigger instal base does mean a lot more revenue so cutting the price could and should in the long term make them much more money.

Yet,ps4 is still selling like hot cakes so i understand that they want to wait as long as possible.

I think it'll end up more like 120 million, 130 million sounds too high for me.

120-130 million for PS4 and 50-60 million for XBO has been my guess for a few years now which combined would put them right around PS2+XB & PS3+360.

it wont. people never remember the fact that the PS2 sold a ton after PS3 release because it was still marketed, it had more support than the PS3 up until 2008 and it was cheap as hell. the PS2 was like 150 dollars and it wasn't an online console

games were cheap, it was a good dvd player, no internet means the games dont mean any less since most games weren't online so they didn't die.

PS4 will sell 110 million. thats around the relative maximum this piece of hardware will sell. nothing significantly more.  tho. my estimate is closer to 105 million.

I do hope it sells more but I highly doubt it. unless god of war and the last of us two move an ungodly amount of units which I assume fans of the games already own a ps4 anyway. for the most part

online consoles simply won't sell much after their generation is over because they get massively less support. the ps3 support pretty much 100% ended on PS4 relaease and it got like 1 more COD and a cpl sports games but that to be expected. PS2 had god of war 2 post ps3 release and a lot of other exclusives.