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Forums - Sales Discussion - Prediction ps4 will sell 130+mill systems.

 

Ps4 will end at?

110mill 16 21.92%
 
120mill 25 34.25%
 
130mill 18 24.66%
 
140mill 7 9.59%
 
It will beat ps2. 7 9.59%
 
Total:73
JRPGfan on 24 March 2018
thismeintiel said:
xl-klaudkil said:

Dont worry this guy has noo clue whatsoever what he's talking about.

5mill in 2020 xd lol!

I expect most of this year to be down slightly, but once we get to the holidays and have more than a week's worth of PS4 at $199, or even a PS4 at $249 for the rest of the year, it should make up for it, and PS4 should either be slightly above last year, or it will be on par with last year.  2019, I expect sales to drop by 2M-3M, so ~17M-18M.  Personally, I do expect the PS5 in late 2019, but that doesn't mean the PS4 will stop selling.  It'll definitely be $199 by then.  So, 2020 should be ~15M.  Then, Sony should have one more cut, at least to $169, which should lead to 2021 being 12M-13M.  After that, it will probably see steeper drops.

I dont expect PS5 until 2020, but I agree with what you wrote.
2018 ~20m (~95m)
2019 ~17-18m (~112-113m)
2020 ~15m (~127-128m)  (PS5 has launched, so 2021 will be lower than 2020 sales, however they dont just stop)

= PS4 ends up over 130m lifetime sales.

I think this is possible if sony plays its cards right.



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The_Liquid_Laser on 24 March 2018

130m sounds about right, but I'm not sure how much precision you are attaching to that number. I'd say 130m +/- 10m.



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Errorist76 on 24 March 2018
Intrinsic said:
As it stands I am even beginning to have my doubts it comes out in 2020. I am leaning more towards 2021/2022 now.

The thing is, any hardware they have to put in the PS5 in 2020 is pretty much what they will go with in 2021/2022. Only difference being that it would be cheaper.

Still betting on 2019 for the 25th anniversary.



Intrinsic on 24 March 2018
Errorist76 said:
Intrinsic said:
As it stands I am even beginning to have my doubts it comes out in 2020. I am leaning more towards 2021/2022 now.

The thing is, any hardware they have to put in the PS5 in 2020 is pretty much what they will go with in 2021/2022. Only difference being that it would be cheaper.

Still betting on 2019 for the 25th anniversary.

If there was any possibility of that happening, by now the rumor mill would be filled with very very specific and accurate information of what the next console will be packing. 



zorg1000 on 24 March 2018
Intrinsic said:
Errorist76 said:

Still betting on 2019 for the 25th anniversary.

If there was any possibility of that happening, by now the rumor mill would be filled with very very specific and accurate information of what the next console will be packing. 

Were there specific and accurate rumors about PS4 back in March 2012?



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Lawlight on 24 March 2018
zorg1000 said:
Intrinsic said:

If there was any possibility of that happening, by now the rumor mill would be filled with very very specific and accurate information of what the next console will be packing. 

Were there specific and accurate rumors about PS4 back in March 2012?

The rumour were specific and some were accurate.



thismeintiel on 24 March 2018
Intrinsic said:
Errorist76 said:

Still betting on 2019 for the 25th anniversary.

If there was any possibility of that happening, by now the rumor mill would be filled with very very specific and accurate information of what the next console will be packing. 

We have had a recent rumor that dev kits are already in the hands of 3rd party devs.  Sony seems to be getting stricter recently about leaks, so we may not hear any real details til we are closer to its launch.  Still, even if it doesn't launch in 2019, it will launch in 2020 at the absolute latest.  Sony is not going to give MS the chance of having a 2-3 years head start on them, if MS decides to jump ship on this gen early to get a head start, which helped them with the 360.  At the latest, I expect MS to be ready by 2020 to push out another console. 

A year isn't that big of a deal, but 2-3 is just too much in this day and age.  A few of those who like to adopt tech early may jump ship if the XB2 is powerful enough and has a good price.  And they could possibly get quite a few mid-gen adopters as they will be ready to drop their price as the PS5 launches.  If they are really cutthroat, they would be able to get a $150-$200 price advantage by the time the PS5 comes out, which would be quite the obstacle.



 

Errorist76 on 24 March 2018
Intrinsic said:
Errorist76 said:

Still betting on 2019 for the 25th anniversary.

If there was any possibility of that happening, by now the rumor mill would be filled with very very specific and accurate information of what the next console will be packing. 

There have been specific rumors about developer kits already being with developers since mid of last year already.



Miyamotoo on 24 March 2018

120m+ is almost certain at this point, 130m+ is possible, but 140m+ is unlikely.



LethalP on 24 March 2018
MasterThief said:

it wont. people never remember the fact that the PS2 sold a ton after PS3 release because it was still marketed, it had more support than the PS3 up until 2008 and it was cheap as hell. the PS2 was like 150 dollars and it wasn't an online console

games were cheap, it was a good dvd player, no internet means the games dont mean any less since most games weren't online so they didn't die.

PS4 will sell 110 million. thats around the relative maximum this piece of hardware will sell. nothing significantly more.  tho. my estimate is closer to 105 million.

 

I do hope it sells more but I highly doubt it. unless god of war and the last of us two move an ungodly amount of units which I assume fans of the games already own a ps4 anyway. for the most part

 

online consoles simply won't sell much after their generation is over because they get massively less support. the ps3 support pretty much 100% ended on PS4 relaease and it got like 1 more COD and a cpl sports games but that to be expected. PS2 had god of war 2 post ps3 release and a lot of other exclusives.

Like someone said, 90-95 million is likely by the end of 2018. Could sell between 15-20 million in 2019. And the PS3 sold 8.5 million in 2013 (release year of PS4). I see no reason the PS4 should do less considering the PS4 will be cheaper in 2020 than the PS3 was in 2013. Not to mention the PS3 sold some 10 million units after the PS4 was released and again, I see the PS4 doing better than PS3 post PS5 release.