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Forums - Sales - Prediction ps4 will sell 130+mill systems.

 

Ps4 will end at?

110mill 16 21.92%
 
120mill 25 34.25%
 
130mill 18 24.66%
 
140mill 7 9.59%
 
It will beat ps2. 7 9.59%
 
Total:73

For the gamers who thinks ps5 would release in 2019 could i ask what you expect hardware wise compared to the xbox one x?
How much will it cost?
And with what exclusive games will sony release the system with since all there dev studios are working on big ps5 games?

Sony doesnt need to rush, graphics like in horizon and god of war are good enough to last 2 years.

A system launch in 2019 is made prob wirh 2017-2018 tech and thats not a big leap


Mark my words sony is going to do the nintendo switch route, prob with horizon zero dawn 2 as there ps4 launch game in holiday 2020 begin 2021.



 

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It will most likely happen unless PS5 gets released early.

2018 - 20m
2019 - 17m
2020 - 10m (PS5 released this year)
2021 - 5m
2022 onwards - 3m

 

These are probably conservative estimates. The PS4 is wildly more popular than the PS3 with much more potential in price cuts and thus should sell better in it's twilight years.



Intrinsic said:
thismeintiel said:

We have had a recent rumor that dev kits are already in the hands of 3rd party devs.  Sony seems to be getting stricter recently about leaks, so we may not hear any real details til we are closer to its launch.  Still, even if it doesn't launch in 2019, it will launch in 2020 at the absolute latest.  Sony is not going to give MS the chance of having a 2-3 years head start on them, if MS decides to jump ship on this gen early to get a head start, which helped them with the 360.  At the latest, I expect MS to be ready by 2020 to push out another console. 

A year isn't that big of a deal, but 2-3 is just too much in this day and age.  A few of those who like to adopt tech early may jump ship if the XB2 is powerful enough and has a good price.  And they could possibly get quite a few mid-gen adopters as they will be ready to drop their price as the PS5 launches.  If they are really cutthroat, they would be able to get a $150-$200 price advantage by the time the PS5 comes out, which would be quite the obstacle.

You say 2-3 yrs as if MS is releasing their own console this year. And no way they are releasing next year either. 

Errorist76 said:

There have been specific rumors about developer kits already being with developers since mid of last year already.

Nah man..... thats not even nearly specific. Nothing like what these rumors are really like. Unless you really believe that within a year afetr releasing the PS4pro and trying to get support for it sony was already giving third parties dev kits? Ridiculous. Hell, I would have even given that rumor more credibility if they didn't mention third parties. Third parties are the last to get dev kits.

You guys should all just relax...... not a chance in hell the PS5 comes out next year (which is 2019). And if sony somehow manages to have another 18-20M year in 2019; it won't be coming out in 2020 either.

You said 2021-2022.  If MS releases in 2019, that would be 2-3 years.  If MS releases in 2020, that's still a range of 1-2 years.  Which is why I said 2-3 years.

@ bold

You do realize that the PS2 launched a year after the PS1 sold ~21M units.  And the PS3 was originally going to launch during a year when the PS2 sold ~20M.  Sony could have easily kept those sales going.  But, they didn't.  There's no reason to cling onto an old system, when the competition is moving on.  Or when you can sell to those who have had a PS for 5-6 years and are looking to upgrade, then selling to mid/late gen adopters in a few years after price cuts.  It's the model they have followed for most of their gens.  The only outlier is the PS3, which was mainly due to them wishing to make up for early losses, and because price cuts didn't happen til mid-gen to where the PS3 really took off.  PS4 is more than likely going to be more like the first two gens.

xl-klaudkil said:

For the gamers who thinks ps5 would release in 2019 could i ask what you expect hardware wise compared to the xbox one x?
How much will it cost?
And with what exclusive games will sony release the system with since all there dev studios are working on big ps5 games?

Sony doesnt need to rush, graphics like in horizon and god of war are good enough to last 2 years.

A system launch in 2019 is made prob wirh 2017-2018 tech and thats not a big leap


Mark my words sony is going to do the nintendo switch route, prob with horizon zero dawn 2 as there ps4 launch game in holiday 2020 begin 2021.

6 years for a gen, when tech is advancing quickly, is hardly rushing it.  Personally, I expect a Zen+ (possibly Zen 2, if they can get it out in time and cheap enough) CPU with 8 cores, a big step up from the Jaguar cores found in this gen.  A GPU that's basically an underclocked or slightly parred down Vega 64, which would be ~11-12 Tflops.  With 16 GB of GDDR6 RAM and 1-2 GB of DDR4 RAM for the OS.  I expect a price of $399-$449.  Who knows what they are doing for exclusives.  I'm sure they will have one or two, while relying on cross-gen support, like usual.

Wait, are you seriously suggesting that Sony is going to make a hybrid?  Seriously?  So they can have a new system that is going to be weaker than the Pro?  They came out with a highly successful traditional console that beat the hot new Switch in last NPD, even with a $299 price, in its 5th year, and is going to sell 115M+.  No.  Sony is sticking traditional.



zorg1000 said:

What exactly would this PS4 Premium be?

PS4 Premium would be the last revision of the PS4. It would use the same 7nm Jaguar tech as the PS4 Super Slim and PS4 Pro Slim, but be clocked around 3.0GHz. It would then double the GPU of the Pro and bump the clock up to 1.1GHz allowing them to reach 10TFLOPs. It would have 16GB GDDR, and a UHD Blu-ray drive. It would take the $399.99 slot in the PlayStation lineup and be for those that want a native 4k system in the two or three year leading up to PS5.

Intrinsic said:
KBG29 said:
Sony has so many options it is rally hard to predict. PS4 could easily surpass the PS2 record one way, or it could struggle to reach 120M, it depends on what they do.

Personally, I hope they release a PS4 Premium next year to sit along side the PS4 Super Slim and PS4 Pro Slim.

I think PS4 Slim and PS4 Pro should drop to $249.99 & $349.99 permanently this holiday.

In 2019 Holiday, I would have;

PS4 Premium - $399.99
PS4 Pro Slim - $299.99
PS4 Super Slim - $199.99

I would bring PS5 out late 2021 or 2022 on 7nm+ AMD parts using Ryzen 3 and Next Gen for the CPU and GPU.


This would allow the PS4 to maximize its sales potential, and allow PS5 to deliver a truly next gen experience.

You wan't strange things. What sense does it make making a PS4 premium? Make something that will sell even less than the PS4pro, which in of itself is only managing around 20% of total PS4 sales? Why would they do that?

This is the time of the gen when maximizing sales potential should be about slashing prices. Getting the base PS4 under $199 and the PS4pro to $299. There is no reason to make a "premium " console to release in 2019 when MS would just release the XB2 in 2020 with hardware tha will run circles around the premium PS4 and with hardware that even if sony released a PS5 a year or two from their console it would be using similar parts.

Makes no sense.

PS4 Premium would only be aimed at 4K consumers and the core PlayStation community. It would bridge the gap between 2019 - 2021 or 2022 when PS5 arrives.

Microsoft could put out a Ryzen based console in 2020 on 7nm, but I don't think it will be enough to blow people away.

Waiting until late 2021 or 2022 when 7nm+/Next Gen GPU, 64GB RAM, and NVMe become a possibility at $500 will deliver a huge leap over a 7nm, 24GB, and HDD based system. I think both Sony and Microsoft know that they can't build next gen consoles without M.2 NVMe drives, or they will get obliterated by other tech within 18 - 24 months of launch. I also believe AMD's Next Gen GPU will be built to handle Real Time Ray Tracing, which is what next gen should be focused on from the graphical side of things. 

From my point of view PS5 in 2019 or 2020 makes no sense, but having no native 4K option between now and a 2021 or 2022 PS5 is bad buisness. But, like I said, Sony has many options. 



Stop hate, let others live the life they were given. Everyone has their problems, and no one should have to feel ashamed for the way they were born. Be proud of who you are, encourage others to be proud of themselves. Learn, research, absorb everything around you. Nothing is meaningless, a purpose is placed on everything no matter how you perceive it. Discover how to love, and share that love with everything that you encounter. Help make existence a beautiful thing.

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thismeintiel said:
Intrinsic said:

You say 2-3 yrs as if MS is releasing their own console this year. And no way they are releasing next year either. 

Nah man..... thats not even nearly specific. Nothing like what these rumors are really like. Unless you really believe that within a year afetr releasing the PS4pro and trying to get support for it sony was already giving third parties dev kits? Ridiculous. Hell, I would have even given that rumor more credibility if they didn't mention third parties. Third parties are the last to get dev kits.

You guys should all just relax...... not a chance in hell the PS5 comes out next year (which is 2019). And if sony somehow manages to have another 18-20M year in 2019; it won't be coming out in 2020 either.

You said 2021-2022.  If MS releases in 2019, that would be 2-3 years.  If MS releases in 2020, that's still a range of 1-2 years.  Which is why I said 2-3 years.

@ bold

You do realize that the PS2 launched a year after the PS1 sold ~21M units.  And the PS3 was originally going to launch during a year when the PS2 sold ~20M.  Sony could have easily kept those sales going.  But, they didn't.  There's no reason to cling onto an old system, when the competition is moving on.  Or when you can sell to those who have had a PS for 5-6 years and are looking to upgrade, then selling to mid/late gen adopters in a few years after price cuts.  It's the model they have followed for most of their gens.  The only outlier is the PS3, which was mainly due to them wishing to make up for early losses, and because price cuts didn't happen til mid-gen to where the PS3 really took off.  PS4 is more than likely going to be more like the first two gens.

xl-klaudkil said:

For the gamers who thinks ps5 would release in 2019 could i ask what you expect hardware wise compared to the xbox one x?
How much will it cost?
And with what exclusive games will sony release the system with since all there dev studios are working on big ps5 games?

Sony doesnt need to rush, graphics like in horizon and god of war are good enough to last 2 years.

A system launch in 2019 is made prob wirh 2017-2018 tech and thats not a big leap


Mark my words sony is going to do the nintendo switch route, prob with horizon zero dawn 2 as there ps4 launch game in holiday 2020 begin 2021.

6 years for a gen, when tech is advancing quickly, is hardly rushing it.  Personally, I expect a Zen+ (possibly Zen 2, if they can get it out in time and cheap enough) CPU with 8 cores, a big step up from the Jaguar cores found in this gen.  A GPU that's basically an underclocked or slightly parred down Vega 64, which would be ~11-12 Tflops.  With 16 GB of GDDR6 RAM and 1-2 GB of DDR4 RAM for the OS.  I expect a price of $399-$449.  Who knows what they are doing for exclusives.  I'm sure they will have one or two, while relying on cross-gen support, like usual.

Wait, are you seriously suggesting that Sony is going to make a hybrid?  Seriously?  So they can have a new system that is going to be weaker than the Pro?  They came out with a highly successful traditional console that beat the hot new Switch in last NPD, even with a $299 price, in its 5th year, and is going to sell 115M+.  No.  Sony is sticking traditional.

That would be a weak as next gen.

And noo i mean release a tripple a exclusive at launch.

What ninty did with zelda/switch deff helped making ot sell so many systems



 

My youtube gaming page.

http://www.youtube.com/user/klaudkil

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xl-klaudkil said:
thismeintiel said:

You said 2021-2022.  If MS releases in 2019, that would be 2-3 years.  If MS releases in 2020, that's still a range of 1-2 years.  Which is why I said 2-3 years.

@ bold

You do realize that the PS2 launched a year after the PS1 sold ~21M units.  And the PS3 was originally going to launch during a year when the PS2 sold ~20M.  Sony could have easily kept those sales going.  But, they didn't.  There's no reason to cling onto an old system, when the competition is moving on.  Or when you can sell to those who have had a PS for 5-6 years and are looking to upgrade, then selling to mid/late gen adopters in a few years after price cuts.  It's the model they have followed for most of their gens.  The only outlier is the PS3, which was mainly due to them wishing to make up for early losses, and because price cuts didn't happen til mid-gen to where the PS3 really took off.  PS4 is more than likely going to be more like the first two gens.

6 years for a gen, when tech is advancing quickly, is hardly rushing it.  Personally, I expect a Zen+ (possibly Zen 2, if they can get it out in time and cheap enough) CPU with 8 cores, a big step up from the Jaguar cores found in this gen.  A GPU that's basically an underclocked or slightly parred down Vega 64, which would be ~11-12 Tflops.  With 16 GB of GDDR6 RAM and 1-2 GB of DDR4 RAM for the OS.  I expect a price of $399-$449.  Who knows what they are doing for exclusives.  I'm sure they will have one or two, while relying on cross-gen support, like usual.

Wait, are you seriously suggesting that Sony is going to make a hybrid?  Seriously?  So they can have a new system that is going to be weaker than the Pro?  They came out with a highly successful traditional console that beat the hot new Switch in last NPD, even with a $299 price, in its 5th year, and is going to sell 115M+.  No.  Sony is sticking traditional.

That would be a weak as next gen.

And noo i mean release a tripple a exclusive at launch.

What ninty did with zelda/switch deff helped making ot sell so many systems

That would not be weak.  That would be ~6x-6.5x stronger than the OG PS4, which is a bigger leap (~5.5x) than the XBO saw over the 360.  That is 100% warranting of a new gen.  It's also ~7.9x-8.6x the power of the XBO S, ~2.6x-3x the power of the Pro, and 1.8x-2x the power of the X.  Then, you have the PS5 Pro, which if they follow the same design principle (doubling the GPU), we'll have a system ~24 Tflops in 2022.



thismeintiel said:
xl-klaudkil said:

That would be a weak as next gen.

And noo i mean release a tripple a exclusive at launch.

What ninty did with zelda/switch deff helped making ot sell so many systems

That would not be weak.  That would be ~6x-6.5x stronger than the OG PS4, which is a bigger leap (~5.5x) than the XBO saw over the 360.  That is 100% warranting of a new gen.  It's also ~7.9x-8.6x the power of the XBO S, ~2.6x-3x the power of the Pro, and 1.8x-2x the power of the X.  Then, you have the PS5 Pro, which if they follow the same design principle (doubling the GPU), we'll have a system ~24 Tflops in 2022.

Yea,noo lets hope that doesnt happen and sony nust waits and creates awesome games.

Difference in graphics wont matter that much anymore.

Zelda whas by far goty next year and yea..them graphics.

Let sony wait till 2021 to release a strong and cheap ps5 rhat could rund 4k native at 60fps instead of againnn sub 30fps.



 

My youtube gaming page.

http://www.youtube.com/user/klaudkil

xl-klaudkil said:
thismeintiel said:

That would not be weak.  That would be ~6x-6.5x stronger than the OG PS4, which is a bigger leap (~5.5x) than the XBO saw over the 360.  That is 100% warranting of a new gen.  It's also ~7.9x-8.6x the power of the XBO S, ~2.6x-3x the power of the Pro, and 1.8x-2x the power of the X.  Then, you have the PS5 Pro, which if they follow the same design principle (doubling the GPU), we'll have a system ~24 Tflops in 2022.

Yea,noo lets hope that doesnt happen and sony nust waits and creates awesome games.

Difference in graphics wont matter that much anymore.

Zelda whas by far goty next year and yea..them graphics.

Let sony wait till 2021 to release a strong and cheap ps5 rhat could rund 4k native at 60fps instead of againnn sub 30fps.

Well, I can guarantee you that the latest they'll wait is 2020.  And you are never getting 60fps on every game.  Devs just choose to prioritize graphics and resolution over fps.  Personally, I prefer a steady 30-45 fps for most games.  Next gen the standard will be 4K, though.  Whether it is native or checkerboard.  We will still get devs with unoptimized engines or less than stellar skills, though.  However, where they had to drop their resolutions to 900p, I don't see the resolutions falling below 1400p.



thismeintiel said:

6 years for a gen, when tech is advancing quickly, is hardly rushing it.  Personally, I expect a Zen+ (possibly Zen 2, if they can get it out in time and cheap enough) CPU with 8 cores, a big step up from the Jaguar cores found in this gen.  A GPU that's basically an underclocked or slightly parred down Vega 64, which would be ~11-12 Tflops.  With 16 GB of GDDR6 RAM and 1-2 GB of DDR4 RAM for the OS.  I expect a price of $399-$449.  Who knows what they are doing for exclusives.  I'm sure they will have one or two, while relying on cross-gen support, like usual.

Wait, are you seriously suggesting that Sony is going to make a hybrid?  Seriously?  So they can have a new system that is going to be weaker than the Pro?  They came out with a highly successful traditional console that beat the hot new Switch in last NPD, even with a $299 price, in its 5th year, and is going to sell 115M+.  No.  Sony is sticking traditional.

This would be a horrible move. If PS5 is that weak, then Sony would very likely be looking at another PS3 situation, only instead of being to expensive and unecissary, it would be to cheap and unimpressive. That would actually be worse, because at least to expensive and unecissary can get cheaper and become a neccesity. To cheap and unimpressive really has no where to turn.

xl-klaudkil said:

That would be a weak as next gen.

And noo i mean release a tripple a exclusive at launch.

What ninty did with zelda/switch deff helped making ot sell so many systems

Couldn't agree more.

Sony shouldn't just slap the PlayStation 5 name on a box because 6 years have passed. They should put it on a box that can where the name with honor. I would rather see another optional PS4 unpgrade than damage the brand with a lame duck for an entire generation. 

I think you are absolutely right about having some big guns from the start. This gen they got lucky because MS did about everything they could wrong. With PS5, I think they will need some heavy hitters from the beggining to build strong momentum. A truly next gen PS5 with Horizon 2 and Gran Turismo from day one, would be a great way to get things moving. They have to follow it up with more titles on a regular bases though. 

 

Back to the orinigal topic. I think we all have to reset and realize PS4 is still $299.99 after 5 years, and still selling at peak numbers. This is a device that can easily hit $149.99 in the future, and could go as low as $99.99 for an all digital unit at some point. There is a massive amount of sales potiental still left in this platform, and Sony would be insane to snuff it out to soon.

They have everything they need to break the PS2's record, and establish a strong userbase that can be transition to PS5 in the future. They should continue to build good relations with the consumer on the PS4 platform, and deliver a PS5 that will wow people, and make them want to upgrade, as opposed to making a under powered device that feels like they are being forced to upgrade.



Stop hate, let others live the life they were given. Everyone has their problems, and no one should have to feel ashamed for the way they were born. Be proud of who you are, encourage others to be proud of themselves. Learn, research, absorb everything around you. Nothing is meaningless, a purpose is placed on everything no matter how you perceive it. Discover how to love, and share that love with everything that you encounter. Help make existence a beautiful thing.

Kevyn B Grams
10/03/2010 

KBG29 on PSN&XBL

I believe it will sell between 115-135 million units. It depends when ps5 is coming out and what launch price.

If it launches 2019 for 399$ than ps4 will probably sell about 115 million systems. And if launched later or with higher launch price than I believe ps4 can reach 135+ million units.



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