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Forums - Sales Discussion - Monster Hunter World Sales Prediction!

Barkley said:
xMetroid said:
Kind of early but i dont see the game picking up as much as Horizon in Europe and NA. Only Japan will save the sales imo.

I think the PS4 version can do around 3.5 millions and Xbone around 600k (no japan).

Which honestly would be a disappointement for Capcom. It would need to sell a lot better than the 3DS games (some passed 4 million) to be a succes. In other words, a game with an incredibly higher dev budget performing under a 3DS games would be terrible so i hope im wrong but we will see. I think a lot of people are expecting the game but i dont see it having legs just like DQ in japan.

Why would it? $60 vs $40 has already been mentioned but let's put it into context. Remember twice the development cost doesn't mean it needs to sell twice as many copies to make as much profit.

I'm going to pull figures out of my ass but it's just an example so it works, let's say the Development costs were as follows:

MH (3ds title) - $15 Million
MH: World - $75 Million

Now let's say they both sell 4 million copies.

3DS: 4m * $40 = $160m. Profit: $145 Million
World: 4m * $60 = $240m. Profit: $165 Million

Even if the development costs for World were five times higher it's offset by the $60 over $40 pricetag.

 

That's revenue, not profit.

Nintendo also published MH in the West, while Capcom is publishing MHW by themselves, further driving up the costs. 

You really underestimate how much of a lazy cash grab the Monster Hunter games on the 3DS were, they came out yearly with barely any difference between them. Budget must have been even lower than your estimate.



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Hiku said:
xMetroid said:
 It would need to sell a lot better than the 3DS games (some passed 4 million) to be a succes. In other words, a game with an incredibly higher dev budget performing under a 3DS games would be terrible

Assuming the 3DS games just barely broke even, yes. But that's not likely the case.
The more the 3DS games exceeded the point of just making back the development costs, the more wiggle room Monster Hunter: World has to avoid "terrible" by falling short of that.
Also, you have to take in account all the Monster Hunter: World collaborations they have going on, etc.
And let's mention higher development budget, while ignoring that PS4/XBO games sell for $40.

According to what you just said, if Monster Hunter: World sold 1 copy less than MH4 (keep in mind that PS4 games retail for more than 3DS games) it would be terrible according to what you just said. And that's not counting what they can make from microtransactions and collaborations. Not to mention that this is an opportunity for them to get money from a new market that normally never gave them money for Monster Hunter before.

No, 1 copies less or a couple thousands is around the same, it would be bad to not even outperform it with all the marketing and being on 3 platforms even if the price is higher. I don't think it can perform that badly tho.

 

Y'all also acting like the game won't be 40 $ after a month and 20$ after a year. Thing is, Capcom made this game to make it a global hit and if it only surpasses by little the money made from the 3DS games with more marketing, 3 system and a much bigger budget, then what is the point of doing it again.

 

Games like that will also take more time to make, so i'm pretty sure they hope it will drive for a long time with DLC and such when they could just make a new one every year on 3DS.

Last edited by xMetroid - on 28 January 2018

more than 3 less then 10.



Switch!!!

Probably 4-5 million. What was Capcom goal for the sales?



I'm withdrawing my prediction. Based on the numbers I have with my company and friends at other companies, this was a pretty big deal. I have no idea what the final number will be, but many people at least in Austin are forced to do digital since everything is sold out.



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TheGamer_1995 said:

I think the main reason for Capcom was to popularize MH in the West and what consoles are more fit for the job than the classic PS4/Xone combo.

Well that is what they say is the main reason, but that is just the consequence of them not expecting there to be a platform to replace the 3DS which would rack in the Japanese sales. In their mind, they were forced to focus on the West by the circumstances of the dedicated gaming platform market. The only thing they didn't consider was the Switch. 



Hiku said:
sc94597 said:

Well that is what they say is the main reason, but that is just the consequence of them not expecting there to be a platform to replace the 3DS which would rack in the Japanese sales. In their mind, they were forced to focus on the West by the circumstances of the dedicated gaming platform market. The only thing they didn't consider was the Switch. 

There is that, but they've probably been intending to grow MH in the west at some point regardless.

Well yes, of course. They've been doing that since MHTri, and especially pushed MH4U in the West. 

I think the thing Capcom needs to do is consistently localize their games. There is no reason why MHP3 (PSP) and MHXX (Switch/3DS) shouldn't have come to the West. The argument that MHXX would eat into MHW's sales seems very odd to me. It's almost as if Capcom thinks that people would play MHXX, not like the series, and then decide not to buy MHW, but it's not like there aren't other Monster Hunter games which people could've tested, and it's just as possible that MHXX would've persuaded people to like the series. Or they could've just announced a localization for release after MHW. I am just not seeing a situation where somebody would say, yeah I am just going to buy MHXX instead of MHW if they have the ability to buy MHW. 

But anyway, my point is that they need to continually localize their games. 



3.5 - 4.0 million. 30% DAR.



AngryLittleAlchemist said:

xMetroid said:

I think the PS4 version can do around 3.5 millions and Xbone around 600k (no japan).


Which honestly would be a disappointement for Capcom. It would need to sell a lot better than the 3DS games (some passed 4 million) to be a succes. In other words, a game with an incredibly higher dev budget performing under a 3DS games would be terrible so i hope im wrong but we will see. I think a lot of people are expecting the game but i dont see it having legs just like DQ in japan.

3DS game = $40

Regular PS4/XBONE game = $60

lol

3DS game = $40

Regular PS4/XBONE game = $60

 

A month later:

3DS game = $40

PS4/XBONE = $40

 

Three month later:

3DS game = $40

PS4/XBONE = $20

 

half year later:

3DS game = $40

PS4/XBONE = PS+/Live Gold

 

Black Friday

3DS game = $30



rodea_sky_soldier said:
AngryLittleAlchemist said:

3DS game = $40

Regular PS4/XBONE game = $60

lol

3DS game = $40

Regular PS4/XBONE game = $60

 

A month later:

3DS game = $40

PS4/XBONE = $40

 

Three month later:

3DS game = $40

PS4/XBONE = $20

 

half year later:

3DS game = $40

PS4/XBONE = PS+/Live Gold

 

Black Friday

3DS game = $30

OH yeah after 3 months I were able to got:

- COD WWII

- Battlefront II 

- Persona 5

And a Bunch of Ps4 titles for $20 each after three months... And they will be the ps+ free games for march this year.... Oh wait....