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Forums - Sales Discussion - Monster Hunter World Sales Prediction!

V-r0cK on 26 January 2018

+4M LT. I think this game could have some good legs.



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xMetroid on 26 January 2018

Kind of early but i dont see the game picking up as much as Horizon in Europe and NA. Only Japan will save the sales imo.

I think the PS4 version can do around 3.5 millions and Xbone around 600k (no japan).

Which honestly would be a disappointement for Capcom. It would need to sell a lot better than the 3DS games (some passed 4 million) to be a succes. In other words, a game with an incredibly higher dev budget performing under a 3DS games would be terrible so i hope im wrong but we will see. I think a lot of people are expecting the game but i dont see it having legs just like DQ in japan.



Dr.Vita on 28 January 2018

2.2M lifetime in Japan
6M lifetime worldwide




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Playstation Vita Media Create Sales (2014 vs 2015 vs 2016)
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Prediction: Nothing will outsell PSP anymore (except Playstation home consoles)

Alkibiádēs on 28 January 2018
Hiku said:
xMetroid said:
 It would need to sell a lot better than the 3DS games (some passed 4 million) to be a succes. In other words, a game with an incredibly higher dev budget performing under a 3DS games would be terrible

Assuming the 3DS games just barely broke even, yes. But that's not likely the case.
The more the 3DS games exceeded the point of just making back the development costs, the more wiggle room Monster Hunter: World has to avoid "terrible" by falling short of that.
Also, you have to take in account all the Monster Hunter: World collaborations they have going on, etc.

You're assuming Capcom wants to make less profit as in the past. If they're anything like my company, they want more profit, not less. 

Not only is the development budget much higher, Monster Hunter World has a far bigger marketing push behind it than the 3DS games. 



"The strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must" - Thoukydides

AngryLittleAlchemist on 28 January 2018

xMetroid said:

I think the PS4 version can do around 3.5 millions and Xbone around 600k (no japan).


Which honestly would be a disappointement for Capcom. It would need to sell a lot better than the 3DS games (some passed 4 million) to be a succes. In other words, a game with an incredibly higher dev budget performing under a 3DS games would be terrible so i hope im wrong but we will see. I think a lot of people are expecting the game but i dont see it having legs just like DQ in japan.

3DS game = $40

Regular PS4/XBONE game = $60



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sc94597 on 28 January 2018

My last prediction was made in this thread, and I think I'll stand by it. 

sc94597 said: 

So right now, according to Vgchartz's U.S preorders (8 weeks left until release) MHW (PS4 version) is pretty comparable to other Monster Hunter games sitting at 48,885 (for comparison MH4U was at 112,790 at the same point before release.) You are also underestimating how first-week heavy Monster Hunter's sales are. If the game sells 2 million first week (on PS4) it's not going to sell 6 million lifetime.The game is also likely to sell about half as much in Japan as the best selling handheld titles, based on COMG preorders. 

6.5 million on the PS4 is way too high, 2.5-3.5 million is a much more probable bet. 

I don't think MHW will outsell MHF3 (and definitely not Freedom Unite's 5.5 million sales.) Whether or not it outsells 4U depends on how well the XBO or PC versions sell, which I don't predict to sell that much (300-500k and 500k-700k respectively.) I think it has a decent chance of outselling X though. 

It is going to sell excellently for a console monster hunter game, but "best selling MH of all time" is setting oneself up for disappointment. 

Region |  First Week | Lifetime

Japan   | 1.05 mil       | 1.8 mil

NA        | 600k (All Platforms) | 1.3 mil (All Platforms) 

EU        | 200k (All Platforms) | 600k (All Platforms) 

ROTW  | 100k (All Platforms) | 300k (All Platforms) 

Total     | 1.95 million (All Platforms) | 4 million (All Platforms) 

It will be very successful all things considered, but it's not going to rival the likes of Street Fighter IV, Resident Evil 6, or Resident Evil 4 like some are suggesting. 

Last edited by sc94597 - on 28 January 2018

AngryLittleAlchemist on 28 January 2018
vivster said:
Ck1x said:
I think this game will have to rely heavily on what it can sell on PS4 to get close to 6 million. A lot of people still forget that this is still Monster Hunter and a reason many won't like the gameplay style.

The reviews are very good. By the time people realize that the gameplay is actually boring they have already bought it.

So do you not actually like Monster Hunter? I thought I asked already and you said you were joking. Lol sorry for random question i'm just curious.



Alkibiádēs on 28 January 2018
AngryLittleAlchemist said:

xMetroid said:

I think the PS4 version can do around 3.5 millions and Xbone around 600k (no japan).


Which honestly would be a disappointement for Capcom. It would need to sell a lot better than the 3DS games (some passed 4 million) to be a succes. In other words, a game with an incredibly higher dev budget performing under a 3DS games would be terrible so i hope im wrong but we will see. I think a lot of people are expecting the game but i dont see it having legs just like DQ in japan.

3DS game = $40

Regular PS4/XBONE game = $60

The 3DS games were made in less than a year with small teams...



"The strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must" - Thoukydides

AngryLittleAlchemist on 28 January 2018
Alkibiádēs said:
AngryLittleAlchemist said:

3DS game = $40

Regular PS4/XBONE game = $60

The 3DS games were made in less than a year with small teams...

Yeah, but the price offsets some of the higher costs of development. Maybe not completely, but it's still selling at almost 2x the price of the 3DS games.



sc94597 on 28 January 2018

I think it is wrong to compare how successful the game is with respect to the 3DS titles, because the 3DS is no longer an option for Monster Hunter (it's slowly dieing) and therefore no opportunity cost exists where Capcom would release MH5 for the 3DS and get a ton of sales. They were thinking about the future of the series after the 3DS passed away, and that meant multiplatform on home consoles.

The only thing they didn't consider was the Switch's success, but it is perfectly easy to re-purpose MHW's assets for Switch Monster Hunter games. 

Remember, Capcom loves to recycle and re-release Monster Hunter games.

It only makes sense for Capcom to regret MHW if there were a better alternative, but there wasn't. Now there might be (Switch), but they could just as easily make games for all platforms, including Switch from now on and get just as much profit as they did with the 3DS. 

The more you think about it,the more you realize that Capcom had to do things the way they did with the knowledge they had. Now they have new knowledge, and will do different things.