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Forums - Sales Discussion - Monster Hunter World Sales Prediction!

pattyboy60 on 28 January 2018

FW: 1.7 million LT: 6 million



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TheGamer_1995 on 28 January 2018

For people having low expectations for the West, just consider this: The Last Mainline MH game (MH4U) sold 300k FW in US and EU and LT sales of 1.2m on the dying 3ds (MH4U released prior to the Pokemon Go craze and the slight resurrection of the 3ds in 2016)
Also, a lot of MH fans from the PSP days are coming back for this and the number of people who played MH on the PSP (and are more likely to own a PS4 than a 3DS now) back in the days is way higher than it says here on VGC because a lot of people back then were downloading their PSP games Illegally.
So I don’t see how this game sells at the very least 2m copies LT in the West alone.



TheGamer_1995 on 28 January 2018
sc94597 said:

I think it is wrong to compare how successful the game is with respect to the 3DS titles, because the 3DS is no longer an option for Monster Hunter (it's slowly dieing) and therefore no opportunity cost exists where Capcom would release MH5 for the 3DS and get a ton of sales. They were thinking about the future of the series after the 3DS passed away, and that meant multiplatform on home consoles.

The only thing they didn't consider was the Switch's success, but it is perfectly easy to re-purpose MHW's assets for Switch Monster Hunter games. 

Remember, Capcom loves to recycle and re-release Monster Hunter games.

It only makes sense for Capcom to regret MHW if there were a better alternative, but there wasn't. Now there might be (Switch), but they could just as easily make games for all platforms, including Switch from now on and get just as much profit as they did with the 3DS. 

The more you think about it,the more you realize that Capcom had to do things the way they did with the knowledge they had. Now they have new knowledge, and will do different things. 

I think the main reason for Capcom was to popularize MH in the West and what consoles are more fit for the job than the classic PS4/Xone combo.



Alkibiádēs on 28 January 2018
TheGamer_1995 said:
sc94597 said:

I think it is wrong to compare how successful the game is with respect to the 3DS titles, because the 3DS is no longer an option for Monster Hunter (it's slowly dieing) and therefore no opportunity cost exists where Capcom would release MH5 for the 3DS and get a ton of sales. They were thinking about the future of the series after the 3DS passed away, and that meant multiplatform on home consoles.

The only thing they didn't consider was the Switch's success, but it is perfectly easy to re-purpose MHW's assets for Switch Monster Hunter games. 

Remember, Capcom loves to recycle and re-release Monster Hunter games.

It only makes sense for Capcom to regret MHW if there were a better alternative, but there wasn't. Now there might be (Switch), but they could just as easily make games for all platforms, including Switch from now on and get just as much profit as they did with the 3DS. 

The more you think about it,the more you realize that Capcom had to do things the way they did with the knowledge they had. Now they have new knowledge, and will do different things. 

I think the main reason for Capcom was to popularize MH in the West and what consoles are more fit for the job than the classic PS4/Xone combo.

The Switch and PS4.



"The strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must" - Thoukydides

Barozi on 28 January 2018

Sales will be good no doubt.
Looking at TrueAchievements on Xbox One it's already in the same league as LT sales for AC Ezio Collection, Naruto Shippuden Ultimate Ninja Storm 4, NFS Payback and Prey.

My guess would be 250k-300k physical and around 100k digital first week for Xbox One.
PS4 should be much higher.



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Tbone on 28 January 2018

Ps4

1.8 million first week 

Lifetime over 5 million.

Last edited by Tbone - on 28 January 2018

 

Barkley on 28 January 2018
xMetroid said:
Kind of early but i dont see the game picking up as much as Horizon in Europe and NA. Only Japan will save the sales imo.

I think the PS4 version can do around 3.5 millions and Xbone around 600k (no japan).

Which honestly would be a disappointement for Capcom. It would need to sell a lot better than the 3DS games (some passed 4 million) to be a succes. In other words, a game with an incredibly higher dev budget performing under a 3DS games would be terrible so i hope im wrong but we will see. I think a lot of people are expecting the game but i dont see it having legs just like DQ in japan.

Why would it? $60 vs $40 has already been mentioned but let's put it into context. Remember twice the development cost doesn't mean it needs to sell twice as many copies to make as much profit.

I'm going to pull figures out of my ass but it's just an example so it works, let's say the Development costs were as follows:

MH (3ds title) - $15 Million
MH: World - $75 Million

Now let's say they both sell 4 million copies.

3DS: 4m * $40 = $160m. Profit: $145 Million
World: 4m * $60 = $240m. Profit: $165 Million

Even if the development costs for World were five times higher it's offset by the $60 over $40 pricetag.

 



Nozz-A-La on 28 January 2018
Alkibiádēs said:
AngryLittleAlchemist said:

3DS game = $40

Regular PS4/XBONE game = $60

The 3DS games were made in less than a year with small teams...

The situation now is different. A new monster hunter for 3ds wouldn't sell as much as past entries did. The 3ds is nearly dead so it was the right decision to change the platform. canpcom knew that they couldn't make as much profit on ps4. Nevertheless the game seems to sell better than capcom thought since it is out of stock at some retailers. Still you're downplaying the games success. At some point developer have to change the system.

The new pokemon game won't make as much profit on the Nintendo switch as it did on 3ds and still it's in development for switch and not for 3ds. Even though it will sell less or equal with much higher development costs. It's simply not possible to stick with the cash cow that the 3ds is forever. The games can still be successful and profitable for the publishers.



pastro243 on 28 January 2018

4 million, a success all in all



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Barozi on 28 January 2018
Barkley said:
xMetroid said:
Kind of early but i dont see the game picking up as much as Horizon in Europe and NA. Only Japan will save the sales imo.

I think the PS4 version can do around 3.5 millions and Xbone around 600k (no japan).

Which honestly would be a disappointement for Capcom. It would need to sell a lot better than the 3DS games (some passed 4 million) to be a succes. In other words, a game with an incredibly higher dev budget performing under a 3DS games would be terrible so i hope im wrong but we will see. I think a lot of people are expecting the game but i dont see it having legs just like DQ in japan.

Why would it? $60 vs $40 has already been mentioned but let's put it into context. Remember twice the development cost doesn't mean it needs to sell twice as many copies to make as much profit.

I'm going to pull figures out of my ass but it's just an example so it works, let's say the Development costs were as follows:

MH (3ds title) - $15 Million
MH: World - $75 Million

Now let's say they both sell 4 million copies.

3DS: 4m * $40 = $160m. Profit: $145 Million
World: 4m * $60 = $240m. Profit: $165 Million

Even if the development costs for World were five times higher it's offset by the $60 over $40 pricetag.

 

Also the fact that they can keep 70% of every digital sale, while they only get ~50% of every physical sale.