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Forums - Gaming Discussion - 2017 is not ps4's peak year!

Shadow1980 said:
JRPGfan said:

Wasnt the PS2's best year in 2007? 2008? (where it was 129$)

Late 2006 they dropped the price of the unit, because of of the comeing PS3?
Which got the PS2 down to 129$ which resulted in 2007 being its best selling year? (more than at 199$)

This "no reason to think that a $199 PS4 will necessarily sell better than a $299 PS4." sounds odd to me.
Also it did with the PS2,.... it got a big price cut right before the PS3 launch, and next year it sold the most its ever sold.
The same thing could happend with the PS4, if it gets a big price cut in its later years.

going by this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PlayStation_2_sales
(maybe I just read it wrong?)

 

"There is no evidence that simply having a good games lineup in a given year will help a system sell better than any other year."

How can a strong lineup not effect sales? that just doesnt make sense to me.
I havnt looked into it, but that just sounds wrong to me.

A strong lineup won't effect any given year or month. It's more important for the long-term health of the system. Pricing is the other big factor. And price cuts are the biggest driver of sales growth, not games. We never see any instances in the history of sales data where a system's peak year coincided with any particular lineup of games. Individual games tend to do very little to affect hardware sales, a few notable system-sellers notwithstanding. Every time we see a system reach peak sales, it was due to a price cut or new form factor being introduced, and we have repeated instances of systems reaching their peaks at a given price point, after which any further price cuts fail to result in any further growth outside a very short time frame.

And your assessment of the PS2 is completely wrong. We have sales data for it, and I have annotated charts for every system:

 

2002 was the peak year in the U.S. as a result of the May 2002 price cut that dropped it from $299 to $199. A subsequent price cut in May 2003 did hardly anything. It sold worse each quarter from Q3 2003 to Q1 2004 than it did in the Q3 '01 to Q1 '02 period. Another price cut to $149 likewise had a modest effect. The PS2 Slim (launched at the aforementioned $149 price point) did not have any initial effect on sales due to shortages, but it did produce the strongest Q1 ever for the PS2. However, Q2 '05 was up only 10.5% YoY, Q3 was up a meager 1.4%, and Q4 was only up 9.5% even with the previous Q4 suffering from Slim shortages. This suggests the $149 Slim's effect to be relatively small, and most of the effect was shunted into Q1 '05 because of shortages during the 2004 holidays. The Slim was itself cut to a bargain basement price of $139 in 2006, with no real effect.

Two price cuts. A Slim model, which later got its own price cut. None of that had anywhere near the effect of that initial price cut to $199. Two hundred bucks was the PS2's sweet spot price. Once the effects of that price cut wore off, it was all downhill from there. All subsequent price reductions and the release of a Slim model caused small, short term boosts at best.

It may seem counterintuitive to you that the PS2 sold better at $199 than it did at any other price, and even sold better at $299 than it did at $149, but the truth is often counterintuitive. The facts are what they are. It is most certainly within the realm of possibility that the PS4 could sell worse at $199 than it did at $299.

From what I remember FF VII was at least one game that totally changed the sales pattern of PS1.

Shadow1980 said:
DonFerrari said:

I'm inclined to agree with you.

My dear number cruncher... could you please put a graph for the aligned sales (date of first release and aligned per region option) for PS2, Wii and PS4?

I don't have sales data for the PS2 for Europe, just shipment data. But I could manage something. I do have to go to work shortly, but I'll get around to making something afterward if I remember to do so.

Well if you don't have precise numbers for a region on some time maybe some extrapolation based on the others could do =]



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

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DonFerrari said:

From what I remember FF VII was at least one game that totally changed the sales pattern of PS1.

That was a rare exception. FFVII did indeed open the floodgates for the PS1 in the U.S., and was arguably as important for the PS1 as SMB was for the NES, Sonic for the Genesis, and Halo for Xbox. There are system-sellers, then there are brand-makers, games so important they're arguably responsible for making a particular console brand a commercial success and a household name. Since there are no monthly U.S. sales figures for the Genesis and thus I can't say for sure about the effects of Sonic on Genesis hardware, FFVII is the only known game released after launch to cause a system with weak or otherwise unimpressive baseline sales (the PS1 was trailing the N64 during the Jan.-Aug. 1997 period in the U.S.) to suddenly reverse course and have very strong sales going forward, and even then that was mostly in the U.S. Its effect appears to have been smaller in Japan (where the PS1 was already starting to build up a significant audience in 1996). In Europe the PS1 appears to have already started to improve before FFVII, as shipments started to rapidly increase well before FFVII released in the region, though without actual sales data (because shipments ≠ sales and can only give us an upper limit on LTD sales) we can't say for sure.

 

DonFerrari said:

Well if you don't have precise numbers for a region on some time maybe some extrapolation based on the others could do =]

If you'll excuse a rough estimate for the PS4's final U.S. & Europe tallies for 2017 (the actual final bar shouldn't be more than a couple of pixels off, though):

Note that Sony stopped breaking down PS2 shipments by region after Q1 2007.



Visit http://shadowofthevoid.wordpress.com

In accordance to the VGC forum rules, §8.5, I hereby exercise my right to demand to be left alone regarding the subject of the effects of the pandemic on video game sales (i.e., "COVID bump").

Shadow1980 said:
DonFerrari said:

From what I remember FF VII was at least one game that totally changed the sales pattern of PS1.

That was a rare exception. FFVII did indeed open the floodgates for the PS1 in the U.S., and was arguably as important for the PS1 as SMB was for the NES, Sonic for the Genesis, and Halo for Xbox. There are system-sellers, then there are brand-makers, games so important they're arguably responsible for making a particular console brand a commercial success and a household name. Since there are no monthly U.S. sales figures for the Genesis and thus I can't say for sure about the effects of Sonic on Genesis hardware, FFVII is the only known game released after launch to cause a system with weak or otherwise unimpressive baseline sales (the PS1 was trailing the N64 during the Jan.-Aug. 1997 period in the U.S.) to suddenly reverse course and have very strong sales going forward, and even then that was mostly in the U.S. Its effect appears to have been smaller in Japan (where the PS1 was already starting to build up a significant audience in 1996). In Europe the PS1 appears to have already started to improve before FFVII, as shipments started to rapidly increase well before FFVII released in the region, though without actual sales data (because shipments ≠ sales and can only give us an upper limit on LTD sales) we can't say for sure.

 

DonFerrari said:

Well if you don't have precise numbers for a region on some time maybe some extrapolation based on the others could do =]

If you'll excuse a rough estimate for the PS4's final U.S. & Europe tallies for 2017 (the actual final bar shouldn't be more than a couple of pixels off, though):

Note that Sony stopped breaking down PS2 shipments by region after Q1 2007.

For your first answer... That is why I say to people in VGC you can either count any SW as system seller (because almost any game will have someone that bought the console to play that game) or you only consider those very rare cases you pointed... all the others are system sellers as part of the pack of good games.

Every time I see the graphics with Wii I think what a beast it was and how soon it died. This year mark the year PS4 shall start recovering a little of the gap in the USA (won't pass Wii imho), nice bounce back for PS2 in Europe mid life, will be almost impossible for PS4 to pass it over there, and Japan just show how bad console sales have become =[

About that other one with continuous line for total shipment/sale when you have time please, want to see the curve tendency.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

How many prople are still waiting after all these years to buy a PS4 for a specific 2018 game release?



''Hadouken!''

DonFerrari said:

For your first answer... That is why I say to people in VGC you can either count any SW as system seller (because almost any game will have someone that bought the console to play that game) or you only consider those very rare cases you pointed... all the others are system sellers as part of the pack of good games.

Every time I see the graphics with Wii I think what a beast it was and how soon it died. This year mark the year PS4 shall start recovering a little of the gap in the USA (won't pass Wii imho), nice bounce back for PS2 in Europe mid life, will be almost impossible for PS4 to pass it over there, and Japan just show how bad console sales have become =[

About that other one with continuous line for total shipment/sale when you have time please, want to see the curve tendency.

Regarding system-sellers, lots of games can be system-sellers in the broadest possible sense that someone bought the system for that game. I bought an XBO for the MCC, for example, but that doesn't mean enough people did so to cause a measurable effect on sales. Likewise, I imagine there's probably more than a few people out there that might have bought a particular console for an even more niche title than a Halo compilation. But there are system-sellers and then there are system-sellers. I'm talking the ones that have a real impact, meaning significant month-over-month and/or year-over-year boosts, not the ones that pushed maybe a few hundred or a few thousand extra units. Those are hard to come by.

For the U.S., it's harder to tell because sales are tracked monthly by the sole "official" sales tracker and thus a bump that would be noticed in a single week would be "washed out" by monthly tracking (a 50% boost for one week would produce a roughly 12.5% boost for a 4-week month, barely noticeable and indiscernible from statistical noise), but there appear to be very few system-sellers here. This generation, the only games that caused a clear, demonstrable increase to sales that can't be explained by other factors are Destiny and its expansion The Taken King, Arkham Knight (and its special edition Batman-themed console), Halo 5, Mario Kart 8, and possibly Uncharted 4 and Super Mario Odyssey. That's it. Nothing else has produced an effect that is noticeable in the sales data.

Japan tracks data weekly, so there are more obvious system-sellers, but most have a very modest effect, with only a handful producing a significant enough increase in sales to where you'd notice the effect if sales were tracked monthly. GTAV, MGS5, FFXV, and DQXI were by far the biggest system-sellers for the PS4 in Japan. There's a few others, but they're blips in comparison. Most weekly data points show variation that can be chalked up to statistical noise, as the sales curve always kind of "wiggles" around week to week even in the absence of anything that can effect sales.

So, even when we have sales being tracked weekly, we see very few games that produce a significant uptick in hardware sales, and from what I can piece together, the Japanese hardware markets seems more responsive to software overall than the U.S. market does.

 

Regarding the Wii, it had a sales curve in line with other Nintendo consoles, just proportionally much larger. Nintendo's home consoles have always peaked early, and ever since the N64 they've had terrible legs because they've had terrible long-term support. I've noticed that systems that get abandoned after their successor comes out tend to die quickly. There's nothing to generate interest anymore (different phenomenon from system-selling titles), and no confidence in the market. The parent company has moved on, as have third parties, assuming they gave the system any appreciable amount of support. The same was the case with the Wii, and will probably be the case with the Switch once its successor comes out.

 

As for the PS4, in the U.S. it simply doesn't have the market share the PS2 did. The overall market for "conventional" consoles has remained steady, but even with the XBO failing to replicate the success of the 360, Xbox is still strong enough to prevent PlayStation from dominating like it once did. And the Japanese home console market has definitely declined. The Switch being a hybrid system is probably why it's selling so well. It's like the Japanese market views it as a handheld for the most part, though maybe not as a true 3DS successor seeing as it didn't have any immediate effect on 3DS sales.

As for Europe, the PS4 is so far tracking about on par or slightly ahead of the PS2 in terms of LTD sales. The dip in shipments in 2004 is most likely due to the same Slim shortages that affected the U.S., an issue that resolved itself in 2005. That being said, the PS2 did have strong legs. While the LTD shipment count as of the end of 2006 was at just over 44M (meaning it had to sell a bit less than that unless it totally sold out), it continued to have strong legs, and was at 55.28M shipped by the end of 2012. That means the PS4 will have to sell another 15M for 2018+2019 combined to keep pace with the PS2. That means that both years would have to average almost as well as 2017. That's not going to happen. And it would have to sell at least another 11M in 2020 onward, which I doubt will happen either. I personally think the PS4 will likely end up at around 45M lifetime in Europe. Well short of the PS2, but far ahead of the PS1 and enough to make it the second best-selling home console ever in the region.



Visit http://shadowofthevoid.wordpress.com

In accordance to the VGC forum rules, §8.5, I hereby exercise my right to demand to be left alone regarding the subject of the effects of the pandemic on video game sales (i.e., "COVID bump").

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StuOhQ said:
I could see it being up YoY, as well. Eventually, you'd feel like the market would just be completely saturated. Late double-dippers on a PS4 pro might sustain it.

I honestly think the continued success of the PS4 has a little to do with XBO defectors at this point in the game.

The market is no where near saturation for ps4.

The one week pricecut to 199showed that,just imagine ps4 didnt sell out that week.



 

My youtube gaming page.

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Shadow1980 said:
DonFerrari said:

For your first answer... That is why I say to people in VGC you can either count any SW as system seller (because almost any game will have someone that bought the console to play that game) or you only consider those very rare cases you pointed... all the others are system sellers as part of the pack of good games.

Every time I see the graphics with Wii I think what a beast it was and how soon it died. This year mark the year PS4 shall start recovering a little of the gap in the USA (won't pass Wii imho), nice bounce back for PS2 in Europe mid life, will be almost impossible for PS4 to pass it over there, and Japan just show how bad console sales have become =[

About that other one with continuous line for total shipment/sale when you have time please, want to see the curve tendency.

Regarding system-sellers, lots of games can be system-sellers in the broadest possible sense that someone bought the system for that game. I bought an XBO for the MCC, for example, but that doesn't mean enough people did so to cause a measurable effect on sales. Likewise, I imagine there's probably more than a few people out there that might have bought a particular console for an even more niche title than a Halo compilation. But there are system-sellers and then there are system-sellers. I'm talking the ones that have a real impact, meaning significant month-over-month and/or year-over-year boosts, not the ones that pushed maybe a few hundred or a few thousand extra units. Those are hard to come by.

For the U.S., it's harder to tell because sales are tracked monthly by the sole "official" sales tracker and thus a bump that would be noticed in a single week would be "washed out" by monthly tracking (a 50% boost for one week would produce a roughly 12.5% boost for a 4-week month, barely noticeable and indiscernible from statistical noise), but there appear to be very few system-sellers here. This generation, the only games that caused a clear, demonstrable increase to sales that can't be explained by other factors are Destiny and its expansion The Taken King, Arkham Knight (and its special edition Batman-themed console), Halo 5, Mario Kart 8, and possibly Uncharted 4 and Super Mario Odyssey. That's it. Nothing else has produced an effect that is noticeable in the sales data.

Japan tracks data weekly, so there are more obvious system-sellers, but most have a very modest effect, with only a handful producing a significant enough increase in sales to where you'd notice the effect if sales were tracked monthly. GTAV, MGS5, FFXV, and DQXI were by far the biggest system-sellers for the PS4 in Japan. There's a few others, but they're blips in comparison. Most weekly data points show variation that can be chalked up to statistical noise, as the sales curve always kind of "wiggles" around week to week even in the absence of anything that can effect sales.

So, even when we have sales being tracked weekly, we see very few games that produce a significant uptick in hardware sales, and from what I can piece together, the Japanese hardware markets seems more responsive to software overall than the U.S. market does.

 

Regarding the Wii, it had a sales curve in line with other Nintendo consoles, just proportionally much larger. Nintendo's home consoles have always peaked early, and ever since the N64 they've had terrible legs because they've had terrible long-term support. I've noticed that systems that get abandoned after their successor comes out tend to die quickly. There's nothing to generate interest anymore (different phenomenon from system-selling titles), and no confidence in the market. The parent company has moved on, as have third parties, assuming they gave the system any appreciable amount of support. The same was the case with the Wii, and will probably be the case with the Switch once its successor comes out.

 

As for the PS4, in the U.S. it simply doesn't have the market share the PS2 did. The overall market for "conventional" consoles has remained steady, but even with the XBO failing to replicate the success of the 360, Xbox is still strong enough to prevent PlayStation from dominating like it once did. And the Japanese home console market has definitely declined. The Switch being a hybrid system is probably why it's selling so well. It's like the Japanese market views it as a handheld for the most part, though maybe not as a true 3DS successor seeing as it didn't have any immediate effect on 3DS sales.

As for Europe, the PS4 is so far tracking about on par or slightly ahead of the PS2 in terms of LTD sales. The dip in shipments in 2004 is most likely due to the same Slim shortages that affected the U.S., an issue that resolved itself in 2005. That being said, the PS2 did have strong legs. While the LTD shipment count as of the end of 2006 was at just over 44M (meaning it had to sell a bit less than that unless it totally sold out), it continued to have strong legs, and was at 55.28M shipped by the end of 2012. That means the PS4 will have to sell another 15M for 2018+2019 combined to keep pace with the PS2. That means that both years would have to average almost as well as 2017. That's not going to happen. And it would have to sell at least another 11M in 2020 onward, which I doubt will happen either. I personally think the PS4 will likely end up at around 45M lifetime in Europe. Well short of the PS2, but far ahead of the PS1 and enough to make it the second best-selling home console ever in the region.

I haven't much to add, you covered it pretty good.

We have seem sporatically that a game "doubled the sales" from the previous week, but when put into perspective on the markets that happened was a very big game, but pushed perhaps 100k consoles WW.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

JRPGfan said:

I think its gonna be roughly the same as 2017... but abit lower.
So instead of doing 21m like in 2017... it probably does 20m (if things go well).

Even if its peaked in 2017..... .selling 20m is something, that would put it around 94m by early 2019.

I totally agree with this.  2017 is the most reasonable year for PS4 to peak, but I also expect it to keep going strong.  The PS4 seems like a fairly predictable console to me.  It sells more each year until it peaks in 2017, then sales gradually decrease but stay strong fairly strong.  It's sales are not going to fall off a cliff (like the Wii's last few years), and it's not going to be the best selling console of all time either.  It's a good solid console, no more and no less. 



Good. Now we have that covered, whats for dinner?



Hunting Season is done...

Azuren said:
The year the PS4 peaks will be the year the PS5 is announced.

I am in full agreement.