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Forums - Gaming Discussion - 2017 is not ps4's peak year!

I could see it being up YoY, as well. Eventually, you'd feel like the market would just be completely saturated. Late double-dippers on a PS4 pro might sustain it.

I honestly think the continued success of the PS4 has a little to do with XBO defectors at this point in the game.



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JRPGfan said:
ZODIARKrebirth said:
watching the 2018 games, i think it will be this year, never saw a better line-up

 

Mbolibombo said:
Lineup looks weaker this year than last year.. so in terms of software I doubt it. Unles something massive comes along ofc.

As for hardware... if they sell the hardware at a great price for a long period of the year,, sure.

*remembers the "this is neogaf" meme's*

2017 : Gravity rush 2, GT-Sports ,WipeOut Omega collection, NioH, Nier Automata, Crash Bandicoot N. Sane Trilogy, Persona 5, Yakuza 0, Horizon Zero Dawn.    Kingdom Hearts 2.8, Kingdom Hearts HD 1.5 + 2.5 ReMIX, Tales of Berseria, Digimon World: Next Order, Danganronpa 1&2 Reload, MLB The Show 17..... too many to list.

2018 : God of War, Marvel's Spiderman, Monster Hunter World , Shadow of the colossus, Last of US part 2, Days Gone, Detroit become human, Dissidia Final Fantasy NT, Yakuza 6, Secrets of Mana, Dreams, Wild, Ni No Kuni 2, Shenmue 3, Dragon Quest XI - Echoes of An Elusive Age, World War Z, Digimon Story: Cyber Sleuth - Hacker's Memory, The Inpatient, Atelier Lydie & Suelle: The Alchemists and the Mysterious Paintings, Boundless, Concrete Genie, crossing souls, Dollhouse, Donut County, Drifter, Eitr, Fantasy Strike, Fighting EX Layer, Little Witch Academia: Chamber of Time, Left Alive, Loot Rascals.... and more more smaller titles.

Both years will be good, but 2018 probably has more "star" power.

absolutly, the ip's releasing this year are stronger than last year, but the truth we will know at the end of the year



Shadow1980 said:
For hardware? Possible, but unlikely. While we haven't gotten the official 2017 year-end sales total yet from Sony, it's probably at no less than 74M units. At this point, Sony is running out of new customers to sell the PS4 to. No other system has ever sold this much prior to peaking.

Also, there is no reason to think that a $199 PS4 will necessarily sell better than a $299 PS4. Eventually, price cuts stop resulting in growth. At best, they may provide a modest, very short-term boost but don't negate the overall downward trend in sales. The PS2 sold better at $199 than it ever did at any lower price. In fact, it was selling better at its original $299 price than it did at $179 or $149. The PS3 was selling better at $299 than it did at $249. We see this with other non-PlayStation systems as well. They all eventually reach a "sweet spot" price at which they do the best, and all subsequent price cuts fail to replicate the same effect. Price cuts yield diminishing returns after a certain point.

As for software, many years of hardware sales figures demonstrate that individual games are at best a very short-term boost, usually helping sales for a month at best. And very, very few games have demonstrated their capacity for moving hardware. There is no evidence that simply having a good games lineup in a given year will help a system sell better than any other year. There's no reason to think that a lineup including God of War, Spider-Man, the SotC remake, Detroit, Monster Hunter World, Kingdom Hearts III, RDR2, Far Cry 5, and Soulcalibur VI, despite how solid it is, will produce better sales than the equally strong lineups seen in past years. 

The two general rules for software as they pertain to hardware sales are A) having a strong lineup, especially from third parties, is important for a system's overall health, and B) individual games only help in the short term, and even then very few move any measurable amount of hardware. The PS4 was already going to do well in the first category, having a solid selection of exclusives and the full support of all the major third parties. As for the second, the biggest system-seller the PS4 has had to date was the first Destiny game. Nothing else comes even remotely close, at least in the West.

Could the PS4 sell better this year than it did last year? Sure. I cannot rule out that possibility. But I don't think it's a given, and in fact I think it's unlikely.

Wasnt the PS2's best year in 2007? 2008? (where it was 129$)

Late 2006 they dropped the price of the unit, because of of the comeing PS3?
Which got the PS2 down to 129$ which resulted in 2007 being its best selling year? (more than at 199$)

This "no reason to think that a $199 PS4 will necessarily sell better than a $299 PS4." sounds odd to me.
Also it did with the PS2,.... it got a big price cut right before the PS3 launch, and next year it sold the most its ever sold.
The same thing could happend with the PS4, if it gets a big price cut in its later years.

going by this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PlayStation_2_sales
(maybe I just read it wrong?)

 

"There is no evidence that simply having a good games lineup in a given year will help a system sell better than any other year."

How can a strong lineup not effect sales? that just doesnt make sense to me.
I havnt looked into it, but that just sounds wrong to me.

Last edited by JRPGfan - on 08 January 2018

JRPGfan said:

Wasnt the PS2's best year in 2007? 2008? (where it was 129$)

Late 2006 they dropped the price of the unit, because of of the comeing PS3?
Which got the PS2 down to 129$ which resulted in 2007 being its best selling year? (more than at 199$)

This "no reason to think that a $199 PS4 will necessarily sell better than a $299 PS4." sounds odd to me.
Also it did with the PS2,.... it got a big price cut right before the PS3 launch, and next year it sold the most its ever sold.
The same thing could happend with the PS4, if it gets a big price cut in its later years.

going by this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PlayStation_2_sales
(maybe I just read it wrong?)

 

"There is no evidence that simply having a good games lineup in a given year will help a system sell better than any other year."

How can a strong lineup not effect sales? that just doesnt make sense to me.
I havnt looked into it, but that just sounds wrong to me.

A strong lineup won't effect any given year or month. It's more important for the long-term health of the system. Pricing is the other big factor. And price cuts are the biggest driver of sales growth, not games. We never see any instances in the history of sales data where a system's peak year coincided with any particular lineup of games. Individual games tend to do very little to affect hardware sales, a few notable system-sellers notwithstanding. Every time we see a system reach peak sales, it was due to a price cut or new form factor being introduced, and we have repeated instances of systems reaching their peaks at a given price point, after which any further price cuts fail to result in any further growth outside a very short time frame.

And your assessment of the PS2 is completely wrong. We have sales data for it, and I have annotated charts for every system:

 

2002 was the peak year in the U.S. as a result of the May 2002 price cut that dropped it from $299 to $199. A subsequent price cut in May 2003 did hardly anything. It sold worse each quarter from Q3 2003 to Q1 2004 than it did in the Q3 '01 to Q1 '02 period. Another price cut to $149 likewise had a modest effect. The PS2 Slim (launched at the aforementioned $149 price point) did not have any initial effect on sales due to shortages, but it did produce the strongest Q1 ever for the PS2. However, Q2 '05 was up only 10.5% YoY, Q3 was up a meager 1.4%, and Q4 was only up 9.5% even with the previous Q4 suffering from Slim shortages. This suggests the $149 Slim's effect to be relatively small, and most of the effect was shunted into Q1 '05 because of shortages during the 2004 holidays. The Slim was itself cut to a bargain basement price of $139 in 2006, with no real effect.

Two price cuts. A Slim model, which later got its own price cut. None of that had anywhere near the effect of that initial price cut to $199. Two hundred bucks was the PS2's sweet spot price. Once the effects of that price cut wore off, it was all downhill from there. All subsequent price reductions and the release of a Slim model caused small, short term boosts at best.

It may seem counterintuitive to you that the PS2 sold better at $199 than it did at any other price, and even sold better at $299 than it did at $149, but the truth is often counterintuitive. The facts are what they are. It is most certainly within the realm of possibility that the PS4 could sell worse at $199 than it did at $299.



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DonFerrari said:

I'm inclined to agree with you.

My dear number cruncher... could you please put a graph for the aligned sales (date of first release and aligned per region option) for PS2, Wii and PS4?

I don't have sales data for the PS2 for Europe, just shipment data. But I could manage something. I do have to go to work shortly, but I'll get around to making something afterward if I remember to do so.



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In accordance to the VGC forum rules, §8.5, I hereby exercise my right to demand to be left alone regarding the subject of the effects of the pandemic on video game sales (i.e., "COVID bump").

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JRPGfan said:
ZODIARKrebirth said:
watching the 2018 games, i think it will be this year, never saw a better line-up

 

Mbolibombo said:
Lineup looks weaker this year than last year.. so in terms of software I doubt it. Unles something massive comes along ofc.

As for hardware... if they sell the hardware at a great price for a long period of the year,, sure.

*remembers the "this is neogaf" meme's*

2017 : Gravity rush 2, GT-Sports ,WipeOut Omega collection, NioH, Nier Automata, Crash Bandicoot N. Sane Trilogy, Persona 5, Yakuza 0, Horizon Zero Dawn.    Kingdom Hearts 2.8, Kingdom Hearts HD 1.5 + 2.5 ReMIX, Tales of Berseria, Digimon World: Next Order, Danganronpa 1&2 Reload, MLB The Show 17..... too many to list.

2018 : God of War, Marvel's Spiderman, Monster Hunter World , Shadow of the colossus, Last of US part 2, Days Gone, Detroit become human, Dissidia Final Fantasy NT, Yakuza 6, Secrets of Mana, Dreams, Wild, Ni No Kuni 2, Shenmue 3, Dragon Quest XI - Echoes of An Elusive Age, World War Z, Digimon Story: Cyber Sleuth - Hacker's Memory, The Inpatient, Atelier Lydie & Suelle: The Alchemists and the Mysterious Paintings, Boundless, Concrete Genie, crossing souls, Dollhouse, Donut County, Drifter, Eitr, Fantasy Strike, Fighting EX Layer, Little Witch Academia: Chamber of Time, Left Alive, Loot Rascals.... and more more smaller titles.

Both years will be good, but 2018 probably has more "star" power.

Yeah I see a few of those not hitting 2018. Would all of them hit 2018 I would agree, but I dont think they are.

CGI-Quality said:
Mbolibombo said:
Lineup looks weaker this year than last year.. 

Definitely not.

Definitely. Of the games announced as of now for 2018 I just dont see any of them beat out Nier, Horizon and Persona 5.



Mbolibombo said: 
CGI-Quality said:

Definitely not.

Definitely. Of the games announced as of now for 2018 I just dont see any of them beat out Nier, Horizon and Persona 5.

Beating them out how? Critically or commercially? 



                                                                                                                                                           

CGI-Quality said:
Mbolibombo said: 

Definitely. Of the games announced as of now for 2018 I just dont see any of them beat out Nier, Horizon and Persona 5.

Beating them out how? Critically or commercially? 

Critically.

They obviously wouldnt be the games worth mentioning in terms of commercial success. 



Mbolibombo said:
CGI-Quality said:

Beating them out how? Critically or commercially? 

Critically.

They obviously wouldnt be the games worth mentioning in terms of commercial success. 

Critically, we just don't know, but I don't see how that can even be connected to this sort of discussion. A couple of points difference on Metacritic, for a select few titles, won't have a major impact on when the console peaks or not.

Last edited by CGI-Quality - on 08 January 2018

                                                                                                                                                           

Hard to say, Japan could be it's best year with Monster Hunter and a possible FFVII remaster/KHIII release.

Secondly their is this evil thing called saturation at some point the pool of people who don't own a PS4 is getting harder to sell a PS4 to.