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Forums - Sales Discussion - PS4 VS Switch lifetime sales, which console will sell the most?

 

What do you expect?

NSW will win by a huge margin 53 16.06%
 
NSW will win by a small margin 75 22.73%
 
PS4 will win by a small margin 75 22.73%
 
PS4 will win by a huge margin 117 35.45%
 
Sorry, no troll XB1 option. :P Oh wait... 10 3.03%
 
Total:330
zorg1000 on 14 December 2019
thismeintiel said:
LGBTDBZBBQ said:

Switch will win at the end, it's outpacing PS4 launch alligned without aggressive price drop and promotion too.

Uh, it has a $199 SKU, now.  Also, it's not like the PS4 had any of those, either, for the first 3 years.  As for launches aligned, they actually continually jump back in forth because of the different periods of times the holidays happen.  Currently, the PS4 is ahead.  After this quarter, the Switch will be ahead.  And then after next quarter, which is when Sony's holiday season was, PS4 will be ahead, again.

PS4 had two official price cuts, two revisions and a few holiday discounts by the time it had been on the market for 3 years.

They should actually be virtually tied after PS4 next holiday.

PS4 end of 2016-53.4 million

NSW is at ~46 million and should be around ~50 million at the end of the year, add another ~3 million from Jan-March and it will be right there with PS4 after ~37 months.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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thismeintiel on 15 December 2019
zorg1000 said:
thismeintiel said:

Uh, it has a $199 SKU, now.  Also, it's not like the PS4 had any of those, either, for the first 3 years.  As for launches aligned, they actually continually jump back in forth because of the different periods of times the holidays happen.  Currently, the PS4 is ahead.  After this quarter, the Switch will be ahead.  And then after next quarter, which is when Sony's holiday season was, PS4 will be ahead, again.

PS4 had two official price cuts, two revisions and a few holiday discounts by the time it had been on the market for 3 years.

They should actually be virtually tied after PS4 next holiday.

PS4 end of 2016-53.4 million

NSW is at ~46 million and should be around ~50 million at the end of the year, add another ~3 million from Jan-March and it will be right there with PS4 after ~37 months.

He said aggressive price cuts and promotions.  Both of them had neither, except near the end of their 3rd years.  PS4 dropped to $299 with a revision.  Switch has a new revision that drops it to $199.  It wasn't until 2017 that Sony started doing the $199 BF deals.

And PS4 was at 57.1M at the end of 2016.  Switch will be ~3M-4M behind it at the end of next quarter.  For the next 3 quarters, PS4 sold 10.4M, so a gap of 13.4-14.4 to make up for.  If sales don't drop this coming year for Switch, it should retake the lead by 2M-3M the end of 2020.  That's when its Q1 of 2022, which will probably be 2-2.5M at that time, has to go against Sony's Q4 of 2017, where it did 9M.  PS4's lead will be back to 3.5M-5M.  Of course, that's if Switch has absolutely no drop in 2020.



 

LGBTDBZBBQ on 15 December 2019

I just couldn't even begin to imagine what's going to happen if Nintendo decided to sell Nintendo Switch with the same level of promotion as the PS4 black Friday deal(GOW+HZD+TLOU+1GB Slim PS4 at $199.99). If Nintendo managed to have the best week for Switch with sales over 800k from old X1 chip Switch + MK8D at $299 pricepoint just imagine how many hardware will be moved with the new version of Nintendo switch + BOTW+SMO+MK8D at $299 or even a $349 price point it's going to cause a huge storm.

Unfortunately, Nintendo software isn't cheap like Sony to give it away like that for example 2017 games like HZD and BOTW aren't even in the same pricepoint despite released in the same year. Current MSRP for HZD is $15 while BOTW is $60.



zorg1000 on 15 December 2019
thismeintiel said:
zorg1000 said:

PS4 had two official price cuts, two revisions and a few holiday discounts by the time it had been on the market for 3 years.

They should actually be virtually tied after PS4 next holiday.

PS4 end of 2016-53.4 million

NSW is at ~46 million and should be around ~50 million at the end of the year, add another ~3 million from Jan-March and it will be right there with PS4 after ~37 months.

He said aggressive price cuts and promotions.  Both of them had neither, except near the end of their 3rd years.  PS4 dropped to $299 with a revision.  Switch has a new revision that drops it to $199.  It wasn't until 2017 that Sony started doing the $199 BF deals.

And PS4 was at 57.1M at the end of 2016.  Switch will be ~3M-4M behind it at the end of next quarter.  For the next 3 quarters, PS4 sold 10.4M, so a gap of 13.4-14.4 to make up for.  If sales don't drop this coming year for Switch, it should retake the lead by 2M-3M the end of 2020.  That's when its Q1 of 2022, which will probably be 2-2.5M at that time, has to go against Sony's Q4 of 2017, where it did 9M.  PS4's lead will be back to 3.5M-5M.  Of course, that's if Switch has absolutely no drop in 2020.

Fair enough on price but your 57.1m figure is shipments and PS4 was very overshipped at the end of 2016, they had 3.7 million on shelves/in transit which is much higher than normal so it's not really the most accurate comparison.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/olliebarder/2017/01/05/the-ps4-has-now-sold-53-4-million-units-worldwide-with-6-2-million-sales-over-the-2016-holidays/#4c22aa6c7b41

NSW shipments should be 54-55 million at the end of March with sell through over 52 million so about a ~1 million difference.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Bofferbrauer2 on 15 December 2019
LGBTDBZBBQ said:
curl-6 said:

If I was being pessimistic I'd be one of those folks saying it'll peter out below the 100 million mark. 

Heck, even this year we've had people still saying it's destined to sell similar lifetime numbers to the 3DS, that it'll nosedive once PS5/XSX are out, etc. Those are pessimistic predictions.

They're the same exact people that had predicted Switch to perform worse for the next few years after releasing BOTW and SMO.

Nintendo Switch Doom checklist timeline.

-Dead on arrival with the price and underpowered specs against XB1 and PS5.

-Sales momentum will fall after hardcore fans bought the console at the launch window.

-Sales will fall of the cliff after all WiiU owners bought the Switch.

-2018 sales numbers will be down after releasing all of Nintendo's heavy hitters like SMO, Botw, MK8D, and Splatoon 2 early on Switch life cycle. 

-Nintendo have nothing as big as Smash Bros Ultimate in 2019 to help the Switch sales momentum.

-PS5 and XSX are going to ...... 

We need to bring back the Wii U chalkboard - just instead with ...will save the Wii U, it comes with a ...will kill the Switch.



The Nintendo eShop rating Thread: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=237454 List as Google Doc:  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aW2hXQT1TheElVS7z-F3pP-7nbqdrDqWNTxl6JoJWBY/edit?usp=sharing

The Steam/GOG key gifting thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/242024/the-steamgog-key-gifting-thread/1/ 

Free Pc Games thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/248138/free-pc-games/1/

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curl-6 on 15 December 2019
Bofferbrauer2 said:
LGBTDBZBBQ said:

They're the same exact people that had predicted Switch to perform worse for the next few years after releasing BOTW and SMO.

Nintendo Switch Doom checklist timeline.

-Dead on arrival with the price and underpowered specs against XB1 and PS5.

-Sales momentum will fall after hardcore fans bought the console at the launch window.

-Sales will fall of the cliff after all WiiU owners bought the Switch.

-2018 sales numbers will be down after releasing all of Nintendo's heavy hitters like SMO, Botw, MK8D, and Splatoon 2 early on Switch life cycle. 

-Nintendo have nothing as big as Smash Bros Ultimate in 2019 to help the Switch sales momentum.

-PS5 and XSX are going to ...... 

We need to bring back the Wii U chalkboard - just instead with ...will save the Wii U, it comes with a ...will kill the Switch.

I think that chalkboard meme originated with the PS3.



PAOerfulone on 15 December 2019
curl-6 said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

We need to bring back the Wii U chalkboard - just instead with ...will save the Wii U, it comes with a ...will kill the Switch.

I think that chalkboard meme originated with the PS3.

Nah. The Saturn.



Hardware Comparison Threads:

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Is Hardware Getting TOO Powerful?

Older Threads:

PlayStation/Xbox/Switch: 2022 Edition

PlayStation/Xbox/Switch Hardware Battle: 2021 Edition!
PlayStation 4/Xbox One/Nintendo Switch: 2019 vs. 2020
PlayStation 4/Xbox One/Nintendo Switch: 2018 vs. 2019
PlayStation 4/Xbox One/Nintendo Switch: 2017 vs. 2018
PlayStation 4: 2015 vs. 2016 vs. 2017

160rmf on 15 December 2019
LGBTDBZBBQ said:
curl-6 said:

If I was being pessimistic I'd be one of those folks saying it'll peter out below the 100 million mark. 

Heck, even this year we've had people still saying it's destined to sell similar lifetime numbers to the 3DS, that it'll nosedive once PS5/XSX are out, etc. Those are pessimistic predictions.

They're the same exact people that had predicted Switch to perform worse for the next few years after releasing BOTW and SMO.

Nintendo Switch Doom checklist timeline.

-Dead on arrival with the price and underpowered specs against XB1 and PS5.

-Sales momentum will fall after hardcore fans bought the console at the launch window.

-Sales will fall of the cliff after all WiiU owners bought the Switch.

-2018 sales numbers will be down after releasing all of Nintendo's heavy hitters like SMO, Botw, MK8D, and Splatoon 2 early on Switch life cycle. 

-Nintendo have nothing as big as Smash Bros Ultimate in 2019 to help the Switch sales momentum.

-PS5 and XSX are going to ...... 

-PS4pro and X1X are going to....

-Smartphones will continue to keep the portable gaming audience away and are going to.....

-Flagship series sequels won't help switch sales momentum

-Price cuts and New revisions won't be effective enough.

-Lack of AAA games are going to...

Last edited by 160rmf - on 15 December 2019

 

 

We reap what we sow

thismeintiel on 15 December 2019
zorg1000 said:
thismeintiel said:

He said aggressive price cuts and promotions.  Both of them had neither, except near the end of their 3rd years.  PS4 dropped to $299 with a revision.  Switch has a new revision that drops it to $199.  It wasn't until 2017 that Sony started doing the $199 BF deals.

And PS4 was at 57.1M at the end of 2016.  Switch will be ~3M-4M behind it at the end of next quarter.  For the next 3 quarters, PS4 sold 10.4M, so a gap of 13.4-14.4 to make up for.  If sales don't drop this coming year for Switch, it should retake the lead by 2M-3M the end of 2020.  That's when its Q1 of 2022, which will probably be 2-2.5M at that time, has to go against Sony's Q4 of 2017, where it did 9M.  PS4's lead will be back to 3.5M-5M.  Of course, that's if Switch has absolutely no drop in 2020.

Fair enough on price but your 57.1m figure is shipments and PS4 was very overshipped at the end of 2016, they had 3.7 million on shelves/in transit which is much higher than normal so it's not really the most accurate comparison.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/olliebarder/2017/01/05/the-ps4-has-now-sold-53-4-million-units-worldwide-with-6-2-million-sales-over-the-2016-holidays/#4c22aa6c7b41

NSW shipments should be 54-55 million at the end of March with sell through over 52 million so about a ~1 million difference.

Ah, the old overshipped argument.  The problem with that is if that is the case, then the following slower quarter/s retailers will lower shipments to get rid of the extra stock.  Care to explain to me when that occurred, because:

Q1 2016: 2.3M vs Q1 2017: 2.9M - 600K in 2017's favor, total
Q2 2016: 3.5M vs Q2 2017: 3.3M - 400K in 2017's favor, total
Q3 2016: 3.9M vs Q3 2017: 4.2M - 700K in 2017's favor, total

I guess they just love having mountains of unsold PS4's lying around at all times.  So, yea, like I said, it will be 3M-4M ahead.  And shipment data is the only concrete data we have.  There are no estimates involved.



 

LGBTDBZBBQ on 15 December 2019
RolStoppable said:
zorg1000 said:

Fair enough on price but your 57.1m figure is shipments and PS4 was very overshipped at the end of 2016, they had 3.7 million on shelves/in transit which is much higher than normal so it's not really the most accurate comparison.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/olliebarder/2017/01/05/the-ps4-has-now-sold-53-4-million-units-worldwide-with-6-2-million-sales-over-the-2016-holidays/#4c22aa6c7b41

NSW shipments should be 54-55 million at the end of March with sell through over 52 million so about a ~1 million difference.

I want to add that the PS4 is only ahead during comparisons where it had an additional holiday quarter over Switch. Anytime the number of holiday quarters is equal between the two, Switch is ahead of the PS4.

Switch's lead has also been growing over time.

Through 4 fiscal quarters - 14.86m vs. 13.5m (Switch leads by 1.36m)
Through 8 fiscal quarters - 32.27m vs. 29.3m (Switch leads by 2.97m)
Through 12 fiscal quarters - 52.00m* vs. 47.4m (Switch leads by 4.60m*)

*Projected figure of 9.33m for Switch's 12th quarter. Switch shipped 9.40m during its 8th quarter.

Very comfortable lead so far, and the gap will be much bigger next year.