Forums - Sales Discussion - PS4 VS Switch lifetime sales, which console will sell the most?

What do you expect?

NSW will win by a huge margin 18 6.52%
 
NSW will win by a small margin 62 22.46%
 
PS4 will win by a small margin 73 26.45%
 
PS4 will win by a huge margin 116 42.03%
 
Sorry, no troll XB1 option. :P Oh wait... 7 2.54%
 
Total:276
thismeintiel said:
RolStoppable said:

And that's the more probable scenario anyway. But your opening statement of said post was that "those guys don't get it" which strongly implies that you believe that unstoppable decline is the much more likely scenario, because otherwise you wouldn't have been so arrogant about it.

I see the arrogance coming from those mocking a scenario where the Switch might need a successor in 2023. As if that's not even a possibility.

So you are seeing ghosts. What was mocked were launch dates in 2021 and 2022, and by extension a March 2023 launch because that would only happen if Nintendo targeted holidays 2022 and had to delay the launch. At the same time, fall 2023 was recognized to qualify as a reasonable expectation.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

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RolStoppable said:

and by extension a March 2023 launch because that would only happen if Nintendo targeted holidays 2022 and had to delay the launch.

Why would a March release have to be unplanned? A March launch isn't a bad thing, in fact separating the launch rush and the holiday rush has it's advantages.

Is there any evidence that the Switch was meant to come out Holiday 2016 and had to be delayed to March 2017?



Barkley said:
RolStoppable said:

and by extension a March 2023 launch because that would only happen if Nintendo targeted holidays 2022 and had to delay the launch.

Why would a March release have to be unplanned? A March launch isn't a bad thing, in fact separating the launch rush and the holiday rush has it's advantages.

Is there any evidence that the Switch was meant to come out Holiday 2016 and had to be delayed to March 2017?

Sure, Kimishima had talked to Nikkei about it.

https://kotaku.com/nintendo-new-nx-console-will-be-out-march-2017-1773312629

When asked why Nintendo wasn’t launching the NX in time for this year’s big holiday season, Kimishima explained that Nintendo wanted to make sure there were games to go along with the NX.

That goes hand in hand with Breath of the Wild's release window being moved from holidays 2016 to March 2017, a game that at that time was long planned to launch simultaneously for Wii U and Switch. It was a decision to sacrifice the holiday season in order to avoid an immediate post-launch drought, which was a contributing factor to the failure of the Wii U.

The 3DS was also originally slated for a holiday release, but its launch got delayed due to hardware production not being at a high enough level in time, not a software schedule reasoning.

A March launch is a much bigger gamble than a holiday launch, hence why console manufacturers have been targeting the holidays for a long time. A holiday launch guarantees two strong months in a row while even a great launch in spring sees a significant dropoff from month 1 to month 2. The strong performance of Switch didn't change Sony's and Microsoft's minds to target a holiday launch with their upcoming consoles. Likewise, it's very far-fetched that Nintendo would prefer another launch in spring for the successor of Switch, because the holiday season makes it so much easier to build an attractive installed base early.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

RolStoppable said:
curl-6 said:

"Support" doesn't necessarily mean "not replace" though; 3DS has replaced after 6 years but still got support in 2017 and 2018 after the release of the Switch.

The statement was in the context of replacement and has been repeated in a Q&A session with investors. Nintendo must have realized how foolish it was to cut the lifecycles of the DS and Wii short.

Beyond that, the launch dates that get commonly thrown around for the Switch successor don't make sense for two other reasons:

1. Switch is much more successful than the 3DS, and the 3DS had a full six years before it got replaced.

2. Console manufacturers target the holiday season for launch dates because it results in two strong months out of the gate instead of only one followed by  a steep dropoff.

That's why spring 2023, 2022 as a whole and the utterly ridiculous 2021 are too early. Holidays 2023 onwards is much more sensible for the launch date of the Switch successor. The only argument that is ever made for those early launches is processing power, but anyone who thinks a minute or two about the importance of processing power (or rather the lack thereof) should realize how wrong that line of thinking is.

The only way a Switch replacement would come in 2021 is if sales plummeted (isn't the case) or if there is a revolutionary new gen of HW that would improve it while keeping portability and increasing battery life (not likely), so yes, 2023 is more likely.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Barkley said:
RolStoppable said:

and by extension a March 2023 launch because that would only happen if Nintendo targeted holidays 2022 and had to delay the launch.

Why would a March release have to be unplanned? A March launch isn't a bad thing, in fact separating the launch rush and the holiday rush has it's advantages.

Is there any evidence that the Switch was meant to come out Holiday 2016 and had to be delayed to March 2017?

Console manufacturers would rather launch earlier than later, and also have a holiday release than a non-holiday.

So the most likely outcome was that they wanted 2016 holiday but small delay in production (maybe also linked to the price of semi-conductors) led to March 2017.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

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zorg1000 said:
curl-6 said:

PS3/360 were never anywhere near as popular as the PS4 though.

Individually they werent but combined they were always more popular and my numbers are including both.

If both combined could only do 14 million after PS4/XB1 released than it's unlikely that PS4 alone will do that much when PS5/XB2 release.

I just can't see the PS4 dropping off that fast unless they are super stubborn with pricing and never drop it to $200 or less. It's looking likely PS5 will be a $500 box, which leaves a lot of room for a cheap entry-level alternative in its first couple years.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

curl-6 said:
zorg1000 said:

Individually they werent but combined they were always more popular and my numbers are including both.

If both combined could only do 14 million after PS4/XB1 released than it's unlikely that PS4 alone will do that much when PS5/XB2 release.

I just can't see the PS4 dropping off that fast unless they are super stubborn with pricing and never drop it to $200 or less. It's looking likely PS5 will be a $500 box, which leaves a lot of room for a cheap entry-level alternative in its first couple years.

You're not really giving any concrete reasons why you believe that though and I've explained in multiple ways why it's unlikely to happen.

PS1/PS2 had such great legs thanks to emerging markets, those markets have grown significantly since then and PS4 got off to a much stronger start.

PS4 has been dropping at a faster rate than PS3 for the last 3 years.

PS3+360 were not popular entry-level alternatives after PS4/XBO released at $400-500 despite being sub-$200 with discounts to $100-150.

There is no if about Sony being stubborn with price reductions, the Slim & Pro models released over 3 years ago and have never gotten a permanent price cut and they have gone with the same price for 3 BF in a row.

The combination of all these things means that PS4 is unlikely to have extraordinary legs after PS5 releases, it will be just like PS3/360 and be an afterthought once the successors releases.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 said:
curl-6 said:

I just can't see the PS4 dropping off that fast unless they are super stubborn with pricing and never drop it to $200 or less. It's looking likely PS5 will be a $500 box, which leaves a lot of room for a cheap entry-level alternative in its first couple years.

You're not really giving any concrete reasons why you believe that though and I've explained in multiple ways why it's unlikely to happen.

PS1/PS2 had such great legs thanks to emerging markets, those markets have grown significantly since then and PS4 got off to a much stronger start.

PS4 has been dropping at a faster rate than PS3 for the last 3 years.

PS3+360 were not popular entry-level alternatives after PS4/XBO released at $400-500 despite being sub-$200 with discounts to $100-150.

There is no if about Sony being stubborn with price reductions, the Slim & Pro models released over 3 years ago and have never gotten a permanent price cut and they have gone with the same price for 3 BF in a row.

The combination of all these things means that PS4 is unlikely to have extraordinary legs after PS5 releases, it will be just like PS3/360 and be an afterthought once the successors releases.

I just find it hard to imagine PS4 not selling another 26 million from now until its discontinuation given how quickly it's reached 100 million and how strong its sales still are. PS5 is looking likely to be more expensive than PS4 at launch so I don't think it will kill off its predecessor as quickly.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

The PS4 will tank in Japan, and now Nintendo has partnered with Tencent to enter China, it looks like the Switch is set to dominate Asia. With good Chinese sales, the Switch could come out with monstrous numbers, outshining the PS4 which is currently doing okay in US and Europe.

With the new consoles coming out, and greater competition from Nintendo and MS, Sony won't be able to do a replay of the PS2 years. The PS4 will have come in strong, and will exit fast once the successors come in.



I got Switch coming through in the end, but just barely. Around 120 million for both