and by extension a March 2023 launch because that would only happen if Nintendo targeted holidays 2022 and had to delay the launch.
Why would a March release have to be unplanned? A March launch isn't a bad thing, in fact separating the launch rush and the holiday rush has it's advantages.
Is there any evidence that the Switch was meant to come out Holiday 2016 and had to be delayed to March 2017?
Sure, Kimishima had talked to Nikkei about it.
When asked why Nintendo wasn’t launching the NX in time for this year’s big holiday season, Kimishima explained that Nintendo wanted to make sure there were games to go along with the NX.
That goes hand in hand with Breath of the Wild's release window being moved from holidays 2016 to March 2017, a game that at that time was long planned to launch simultaneously for Wii U and Switch. It was a decision to sacrifice the holiday season in order to avoid an immediate post-launch drought, which was a contributing factor to the failure of the Wii U.
The 3DS was also originally slated for a holiday release, but its launch got delayed due to hardware production not being at a high enough level in time, not a software schedule reasoning.
A March launch is a much bigger gamble than a holiday launch, hence why console manufacturers have been targeting the holidays for a long time. A holiday launch guarantees two strong months in a row while even a great launch in spring sees a significant dropoff from month 1 to month 2. The strong performance of Switch didn't change Sony's and Microsoft's minds to target a holiday launch with their upcoming consoles. Likewise, it's very far-fetched that Nintendo would prefer another launch in spring for the successor of Switch, because the holiday season makes it so much easier to build an attractive installed base early.