PS4 VS Switch lifetime sales, which console will sell the most?

[thismeintiel]

StarDoor said:

thismeintiel said:

Ah, the old overshipped argument.  The problem with that is if that is the case, then the following slower quarter/s retailers will lower shipments to get rid of the extra stock.  Care to explain to me when that occurred, because:

Q1 2016: 2.3M vs Q1 2017: 2.9M - 600K in 2017's favor, total
Q2 2016: 3.5M vs Q2 2017: 3.3M - 400K in 2017's favor, total
Q3 2016: 3.9M vs Q3 2017: 4.2M - 700K in 2017's favor, total

I guess they just love having mountains of unsold PS4's lying around at all times.  So, yea, like I said, it will be 3M-4M ahead.  And shipment data is the only concrete data we have.  There are no estimates involved.

Interesting how you exclude the holiday quarters.

Q4 2016: 9.7M vs Q4 2017: 9.0M

Both years had total shipments of 19.4M. And contrary to what you say, shipment data isn't the only concrete data we have, because Sony has announced PS4 sell-through at the ends of every calendar year to date.

End of 2015: 35.9M
End of 2016: 53.4M (+17.5M)
End of 2017: 73.6M (+20.2M)

PS4 shipped 1.9M more than it sold during 2016, and it shipped 0.8M fewer than it sold during 2017. Your data reflects the fact that PS4 had faster sell-through in 2017 than it had in 2016. It doesn't rule out over-shipping during 2016.

I excluded it because there is no way retailers would allow there to be that much stock sitting on shelves an in warehouses if the PS4 was overshipped that much 3-9 months prior.  They would have decreased shipments much sooner than 9 months later.  Still, it doesn't really matter because those units were sold by Sony, so count as sales.  You can try to explain it away why they don't count by using estimates of sell-through, but shipment numbers are what we we have and always will use to compare where consoles ended up. 

And in the end, Switch will have to sell another ~75M-85M (they should be at 50M-51M at the end of this year) to catch the PS4, which should end at ~125M-135M.