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thismeintiel on 15 December 2019
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zorg1000 said:
thismeintiel said:

He said aggressive price cuts and promotions.  Both of them had neither, except near the end of their 3rd years.  PS4 dropped to $299 with a revision.  Switch has a new revision that drops it to $199.  It wasn't until 2017 that Sony started doing the $199 BF deals.

And PS4 was at 57.1M at the end of 2016.  Switch will be ~3M-4M behind it at the end of next quarter.  For the next 3 quarters, PS4 sold 10.4M, so a gap of 13.4-14.4 to make up for.  If sales don't drop this coming year for Switch, it should retake the lead by 2M-3M the end of 2020.  That's when its Q1 of 2022, which will probably be 2-2.5M at that time, has to go against Sony's Q4 of 2017, where it did 9M.  PS4's lead will be back to 3.5M-5M.  Of course, that's if Switch has absolutely no drop in 2020.

Fair enough on price but your 57.1m figure is shipments and PS4 was very overshipped at the end of 2016, they had 3.7 million on shelves/in transit which is much higher than normal so it's not really the most accurate comparison.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/olliebarder/2017/01/05/the-ps4-has-now-sold-53-4-million-units-worldwide-with-6-2-million-sales-over-the-2016-holidays/#4c22aa6c7b41

NSW shipments should be 54-55 million at the end of March with sell through over 52 million so about a ~1 million difference.

Ah, the old overshipped argument.  The problem with that is if that is the case, then the following slower quarter/s retailers will lower shipments to get rid of the extra stock.  Care to explain to me when that occurred, because:

Q1 2016: 2.3M vs Q1 2017: 2.9M - 600K in 2017's favor, total
Q2 2016: 3.5M vs Q2 2017: 3.3M - 400K in 2017's favor, total
Q3 2016: 3.9M vs Q3 2017: 4.2M - 700K in 2017's favor, total

I guess they just love having mountains of unsold PS4's lying around at all times.  So, yea, like I said, it will be 3M-4M ahead.  And shipment data is the only concrete data we have.  There are no estimates involved.