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Forums - Sales Discussion - PS4 VS Switch lifetime sales, which console will sell the most?

 

What do you expect?

NSW will win by a huge margin 53 16.06%
 
NSW will win by a small margin 75 22.73%
 
PS4 will win by a small margin 75 22.73%
 
PS4 will win by a huge margin 117 35.45%
 
Sorry, no troll XB1 option. :P Oh wait... 10 3.03%
 
Total:330
VideoGameAccountant said:

"I never said "impossible" to begin so straw man much ?"

"Still doesn't make you any less wrong for thinking that Nintendo shared sold through numbers instead of shipment "

*snip*

Your post is the most pathetic thing I've seen and you keep digging this hole for your self. I love how you say I can't read quarterly reports when all the information I provided you is from quarterly reports and you keep getting these things wrong. You keep adding some weird sentense at the end of your paragraphs like "distress much," like some childish projection. And you still bring the shipment vs sales thing up even though it doesn't matter. How about you provide that source I asked you for in the second response. 

Also, the 3DS sold 1.07 million in Japan by Q2 2011 while the Switch sold 1.35 million (despite massive supply issues) in the same time frame. As of September, the 3DS was ahead by 180K life-to-date. In the US and Other, the Switch is up in both the 1st full fiscal year and LTD. The only metric the 3DS is ahead by was Japan's LTD sales. August is also part of Q2 meaning you don't understand accounting periods. But please, tell me how its impossible for the Switch to not outperform the 3DS when it already is in every region.

At this point, your post only deserves ridicule. I've shown you the numbers 10 ways from Sunday, but you won't listen because they don't confirm your theory. Switch can't beat 3DS despite it beating 3DS in the same time frame. You fail to understand that projections are not necessarily exactly what the company will do and that they are incentivized to beat it. Others have already pointed out how you move the goal post and how you over-rely on projection. Not much reason to continue beside to mock your ramblings. 

Keep playing that internet strongman mentality ... 

It's hilarious you got so easily flustered by me pointing out that you were wrong in that Nintendo reports "sold" numbers instead of "shipped" numbers and it's sad that it wasn't even me who hurt your ego but it was lawlight who initially cornered you into this pitiful state ... (my projections about you are right considering how you're one who started laying down ad hominem so keep losing your cool LOL) 

@Bold Of course shipped vs sold doesn't matter especially for a so called "accountant", it must not be the reason why this site was created in the first place to distinguish between the two ... /sarcasm (continue on with your revisionism since it's a good sign that your in the third stage) 

I've got even better data than you. this site shows that the 3DS beat the Switch in it's first August in the US so Switch's winning streak is coming to an end or is already at an end. Both systems will likely be close for September and October too in the US but let that sink in your head for a moment that the 3DS did this all in just a price cut with 3 more notable games yet to release. 3DS's first holiday in the US was by FAR it's best and it shows since 2/3 games released in that region spiked 3DS hardware sales during the month of November and December to the high heavens. It is very likely that the 3DS will start catching up to the Switch in the US when we consider that one, 3DS's best performing holiday in the US was it's first one and two, the 3DS is starting to perform closer to the Switch in the US after it's price cut ... 

The same reasoning applies even more so for Japan with the addition of Monster Hunter Tri for the 3DS ... 

Switch may come out on top in the US compared to the 3DS at the end of it's first calendar year but it'll be a closer match up than you think and 3DS will come out ahead comfortably against the Switch in Japan which just leaves Europe ... 

Again with the straw man, I'm not surprised since it's a recurring theme from you but the Switch is currently not outperforming the 3DS at a similar point in time in every region when you just acknowledged that the 3DS is ahead in Japan so you just contradicted yourself ... 

It's obvious at this point that you fail in your argument since it's rife with denial, ad hominem and most importantly contradictions ...



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fatslob-:O said:

I've got even better data than you. this site shows that the 3DS beat the Switch in it's first August in the US so Switch's winning streak is coming to an end or is already at an end. Both systems will likely be close for September and October too in the US but let that sink in your head for a moment that the 3DS did this all in just a price cut with 3 more notable games yet to release. 3DS's first holiday in the US was by FAR it's best and it shows since 2/3 games released in that region spiked 3DS hardware sales during the month of November and December to the high heavens. It is very likely that the 3DS will start catching up to the Switch in the US when we consider that one, 3DS's best performing holiday in the US was it's first one and two, the 3DS is starting to perform closer to the Switch in the US after it's price cut ... 

We have NPD data for Sept/Oct Nov 2011, 3DS did about 250/260k while Switch is over 300k in each of those months.

After 8 months, Switch leads 3DS in USA by close to 1 million (over 2.6m vs under 1.7m).

Some analysts are now expecting Switch to do over 5 million this year if they have enough stock which would mean it would still have close to a 1 million lead over 3DS at the end of the year.

 

It seems unlikely that 3DS will start to close the gap against Switch this year and like you said 2011 was 3DS best holiday so it seems unlikely that it ever will catch Switch.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Eagle367 said:
quickrick said:

did you miss the part where i said along with some core gamers? obviously core gamers are gonna be interested when the games are nearly the highest rated games of all time, thats gonna get gamers attention. everything points to fifa bombing everywhere. even ea says they are not committed to making games on switch recently, if fifa gave good results i i doubt they would have said that.   

FIFA didn't bomb, there weren't enough game cards to sell. The reports came out that people just couldn't find the FIFA switch game in many European places and UK so I don't know what you are on about. If EA themselves don't make enough copies of the game, it's not called bombing. EA sold what EA made so that would justify the claim that it was a success based on what EA was expecting. If EA didn't even make a 1 million copies of the game, how can it sell 1mil?

this has been proven false, nice try.



zorg1000 said:

We have NPD data for Sept/Oct Nov 2011, 3DS did about 250/260k while Switch is over 300k in each of those months.

After 8 months, Switch leads 3DS in USA by close to 1 million (over 2.6m vs under 1.7m).

Some analysts are now expecting Switch to do over 5 million this year if they have enough stock which would mean it would still have close to a 1 million lead over 3DS at the end of the year.

 

It seems unlikely that 3DS will start to close the gap against Switch this year and like you said 2011 was 3DS best holiday so it seems unlikely that it ever will catch Switch.

According to this site the 3DS sold ~290K for it's first September while the Switch did ~300K according to NPD and vgc will match that figure at it's current pace. In October the 3DS did ~250K on this site while the Switch will do roughly ~300K if the press release from Nintendo is to be believed ... (Switch at the end of September is at ~2.3M units sold in the US and at the end of October the Switch is just over 2.6M units) 

All things considered 3DS was very close to the Switch in September and in October it was competitive but the Switch also had the benefit of SMO spiking hardware sales for the last 5 days of October ... 

Along with the 3DS's price cut and the release of SM3DL in November, I expect the 3DS to be able to gain some ground against the Switch in the US and even more ground during December where MK7 releases ... (Not in any of PS4's years was it ever able to beat the 3DS in it's first December according to this site! Tall order for the Switch to sell ~1.6M units this December in the US when it'll be unlikely to get hardware deals especially in comparison to it's competitors) 



fatslob-:O said:
zorg1000 said:

We have NPD data for Sept/Oct Nov 2011, 3DS did about 250/260k while Switch is over 300k in each of those months.

After 8 months, Switch leads 3DS in USA by close to 1 million (over 2.6m vs under 1.7m).

Some analysts are now expecting Switch to do over 5 million this year if they have enough stock which would mean it would still have close to a 1 million lead over 3DS at the end of the year.

 

It seems unlikely that 3DS will start to close the gap against Switch this year and like you said 2011 was 3DS best holiday so it seems unlikely that it ever will catch Switch.

According to this site the 3DS sold ~290K for it's first September while the Switch did ~300K according to NPD and vgc will match that figure at it's current pace. In October the 3DS did ~250K on this site while the Switch will do roughly ~300K if the press release from Nintendo is to be believed ... (Switch at the end of September is at ~2.3M units sold in the US and at the end of October the Switch is just over 2.6M units) 

All things considered 3DS was very close to the Switch in September and in October it was competitive but the Switch also had the benefit of SMO spiking hardware sales for the last 5 days of October ... 

Along with the 3DS's price cut and the release of SM3DL in November, I expect the 3DS to be able to gain some ground against the Switch in the US and even more ground during December where MK7 releases ... (Not in any of PS4's years was it ever able to beat the 3DS in it's first December according to this site! Tall order for the Switch to sell ~1.6M units this December in the US when it'll be unlikely to get hardware deals especially in comparison to it's competitors) 

Your first mistake is using this sites numbers when we have actual NPD leaks to go off of. Switch outsold 3DS by over 100k in Sept+Oct.

Its possible that 3DS can cut into Switch's lead by a little bit but it wont be by much. 3DS did about 2.4m in Nov+Dec and there is no way Switch is doing less than 2 million in those months.

 

The fact that 3DS needed a huge price cut down to $170 just to be competitive with Switch at $300 shows that Switch has alot more potential than 3DS ever did.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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zorg1000 said:

Your first mistake is using this sites numbers when we have actual NPD leaks to go off of. Switch outsold 3DS by over 100k in Sept+Oct.

Its possible that 3DS can cut into Switch's lead by a little bit but it wont be by much. 3DS did about 2.4m in Nov+Dec and there is no way Switch is doing less than 2 million in those months.

 

The fact that 3DS needed a huge price cut down to $170 just to be competitive with Switch at $300 shows that Switch has alot more potential than 3DS ever did.

Even NPD has a margin of error and it adds up in comparison to the internal tracking of console manufacturers ...

Actually, there's a possible scenario in which the switch could fall a little short of 2M units in Nov+Dec in the US. Switch has no discounts or value added bundles going into black friday and only has SMO at full $60 to tide them over into December. $199 PS4 Slim and X1S + game at $229 could really steal the show at black friday in the US. Even the 3DS had value added bundles such as Zelda/Mario (yes, even Nintendo's latest game was subject to bundling too) for $199 in it's first black friday despite having just receiving it's initial price cut shortly before and that's what drove 3DS to sell 800K+ units in the US for november along with a new AAA game launch ... (November for 3DS in the US is almost as big as Nintendo's biggest system launch in the US which was the Switch! Switch sold 900K units in the US during March while 3DS will go on to sell 

I can see a case where the Switch would only be able to move 600K units in the US for November because Nintendo decided not to do any deals for that month with stiff competition and sell 1.3M units in December which amounts to 1.9M units. Switch would have to mostly sell on the strength of SMO for the holidays whereas the 3DS had MK7 and SM3DL along with it's initial price cut to stand beside it during that same period ... 

3DS with it's deals, prior price cut and two flagships will handily secure victory for Nov+Dec and it could close the gap with the Switch in the US by as much as 0.5M units ... 



I say Switch because it is likely replacing Nintendo's line of dedicated handhelds after the 3DS, which traditionally have sold incredibly well all on their own (none of Nintendo's handhelds are below the 70m sales group in OP's chart), so the Switch having that market share all to itself, combined with the fact that Nintendo's handhelds generally enjoy a long life span featuring several hardware iterations + did I mention mainline POKEMON will be on the damn thing??

Switch is almost guaranteed to break the 100m lifetime sales barrier due to having a monopoly on the handheld console market + Pokemon which is a deadly combination. The only question is can the PS4's sales momentum keep up or will rumblings of a new console over the next couple of years cause it to slow down.



On 2/24/13, MB1025 said:
You know I was always wondering why no one ever used the dollar sign for $ony, but then I realized they have no money so it would be pointless.

quickrick said:
Miyamotoo said:

Evre game can run on Switch (SQ said that last week). But you do realise that third party games dont need to sell same on Switch like they are selling to PS4/XB1!? I agree that 3rd party games are mostly system dealers for PS4/XB1 while for Switch they are 1st party games, but that doesnt mean that Switch cant sell great. I am pretty sure that Doom and Skyrim will sell good, La Noire will probably not sell good even on PS4/XB1, and you will seeing more and more 3rd party announcements for Switch in any case.

Depends how much they wanna invest in the port or if they wanna rework the game, but i think doom proves how difficult it is, the game ran 1080p/60fps  on ps4, and runs 600p/20-30fps on switch, tell me how are they gonna run something that runs 30fps on ps4 thats technically demanding   because it takes 3x the power to run a 30fps game at 60fps.

It doesn't really matter, fact is that every game can run on Switch. On more demanding games they can more downgrade visuals, Switch version of Doom has almost all effects same like PS4/XB1 versions and strong AA, they could turn of some of those effecta and AA and go for higher resolution for instance. Just for record, Doom on PS4 works on dynamic 1080p resolution and have frame rate dips to 50 FPS, XB1 version of game runs most of time at 865p and have frame rate to 40 fps.

 

 

fatslob-:O said: 
Miyamotoo said: 

Its not only about pirates, you have some Wii U owners that still didn't bought Switch, and every strong/big game is potential system seller in any case. 3D Zelda games are always one of biggest Nintendo games evre generation, not buy sales, buy buy attention of hole gaming industry, and thats also very important for platform.

But Bayonetta 2 was also made because of Nintendo, point is same, those are all 3rd party exclusives made for Wii U. Mario + Rabbids and FE Warriors are partaly Nintendo IPs but they are completely developed by 3rd parties.

Point of Pro is to offer same PS4 games with higher resolution for 4k TVs, they are same games. Nothing will realy change.

That's my point, they supported in same time 3DS and Wii U, so I dont get it how you can say "Nintendo was barely able to push out 10 AAA titles on the WII U" and try to compare that with Switch. Doesnt matter if Switch games from this year are not  ground up built, that doesnt change anything they done their job great, releasing more games would be overkill, and despite those games that are not "ground up built" Switch first 9 months on market blow away not just 1st 3DS year lineup, but probably every other Nintendo system also, we probably talking about best 1st year linuep (actualy 1st 9 months) for any Nintendo system. Switch will definitely have bigger and better support with better and stronger games than 3DS ever had, I mean 3DS didn't had nothing similar to Zelda BotW and Mario Odyssey that Switch received in its 8 months on market.

No, but you dont make sense with your points, so its just waste of time.

Forget about the WII U, it consists of the most dedicated Nintendo customers so they would've gotten a Switch regardless down the road whether or not another Zelda would've come. There are many other reasons for them to purchase the Switch such as a new 2D/3D Mario, Splatoon 2 or Smash Bros ... (heck can't even rule out that they'll capitalize on WII U's customer base with Animal Crossing or Pokemon) 

Which doesn't change my initial point about 3rd party exclusives being few and far in between without Nintendo's backing ... 

Except you can't compare the situation between the Switch/WII U to that of PS4/Pro. Nintendo has to exclusively make the game for Switch which is arguably twice as powerful as their previous system while Sony still has to make their games work on base PS4 ... (Nintendo has to bring out twice as many games than they did for the WII U on a more powerful system so the combined resources isn't much of an advantage at all when it is offset) 

Actually, the 3DS received similar equivalents such as OoT 3D and SM3DL in it's first year ... 

My points don't make sense to you because you can't comprehend them ... 

Fact is that some Wii U owners still didn't bouth Switch (I am one of them), but that relly doesnt matter beacuse every strong/big game is potential system seller in any case, and 3D Zelda games are always one of biggest Nintendo games evre generation, not buy sales, but buy attention of hole gaming industry, and thats also very important for platform. With every new strong/big game Switch receives it become more desirable console for hole market, that's a fact.

You again dont make sense, point is that Nintendo with Switch will have much more similar 3rd parties like examples that I mentioned, like I wrote we already had two 3rd party exclusives in 1st 9 months of console on market, and for instance Bandai Namco already said they have 3 Switch exclusives for next year, and it very possible that Platinum Games work on exclusive game also, and Nintendo yet need to start talking about 2018. lineup so its very posible more of them will be.

I don't comparing situation between WiiU/Switch and PS4/Pro, but possible situation between Switch/XL-Pro with PS4/Pro. Nintendo will easily bring more than twice better and stronger games and much more games than Wii U had. Again, first with Wii U they were suporting 3DS in same time, second Wii U was fail and they didnt want to invest too much in it, and third Wii U had short life (around 4 years) so had less games, its very obvous that with unifeded platform, desire to invest much more in platform that will obviously be very successfule and that will have longer life span, Switch will have much more and much more better and stronger games than Wii U had, and that goes for 1st party games, 2nd party games, 3rd party exclusives and multi platform games.

OoT 3D is remake of 15 years old N64 game while BotW is maybe even best and biggest Zelda ever, SM3DL is first 3D handheld Mario while Mario Odyssey is maybe even best 3D Mario and definatly biggest 3D Mario game ever, in other words, BotW and Mario Odyssey blows away OoT 3D and SM3DL. And dont forget that Switch also had one of best MK game ever, thats also huge system seller, and biggest new Nintendo IP and system seller game that will probably be bigger than Smash Bros. Splatoon 2. So Its very obvous that Switch 1st year linuep blows away hole 1st 3DS year linuep, and that we probably talking about best 1st year linuep (actualy 1st 9 months) for any Nintendo system.

Your posts again didn't make too much sense.

Last edited by Miyamotoo - on 14 November 2017

fatslob-:O said:
zorg1000 said:

Your first mistake is using this sites numbers when we have actual NPD leaks to go off of. Switch outsold 3DS by over 100k in Sept+Oct.

Its possible that 3DS can cut into Switch's lead by a little bit but it wont be by much. 3DS did about 2.4m in Nov+Dec and there is no way Switch is doing less than 2 million in those months.

 

The fact that 3DS needed a huge price cut down to $170 just to be competitive with Switch at $300 shows that Switch has alot more potential than 3DS ever did.

Even NPD has a margin of error and it adds up in comparison to the internal tracking of console manufacturers ...

Actually, there's a possible scenario in which the switch could fall a little short of 2M units in Nov+Dec in the US. Switch has no discounts or value added bundles going into black friday and only has SMO at full $60 to tide them over into December. $199 PS4 Slim and X1S + game at $229 could really steal the show at black friday in the US. Even the 3DS had value added bundles such as Zelda/Mario (yes, even Nintendo's latest game was subject to bundling too) for $199 in it's first black friday despite having just receiving it's initial price cut shortly before and that's what drove 3DS to sell 800K+ units in the US for november along with a new AAA game launch ... (November for 3DS in the US is almost as big as Nintendo's biggest system launch in the US which was the Switch! Switch sold 900K units in the US during March while 3DS will go on to sell 

I can see a case where the Switch would only be able to move 600K units in the US for November because Nintendo decided not to do any deals for that month with stiff competition and sell 1.3M units in December which amounts to 1.9M units. Switch would have to mostly sell on the strength of SMO for the holidays whereas the 3DS had MK7 and SM3DL along with it's initial price cut to stand beside it during that same period ... 

3DS with it's deals, prior price cut and two flagships will handily secure victory for Nov+Dec and it could close the gap with the Switch in the US by as much as 0.5M units ... 

There's a tell tale sign that someone's argument is going downhill, they start to talk about NPD numbers not being accurate....

 

As for Switch vs 3DS holiday, we will just have to wait and see.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Miyamotoo said:
quickrick said:

Depends how much they wanna invest in the port or if they wanna rework the game, but i think doom proves how difficult it is, the game ran 1080p/60fps  on ps4, and runs 600p/20-30fps on switch, tell me how are they gonna run something that runs 30fps on ps4 thats technically demanding   because it takes 3x the power to run a 30fps game at 60fps.

It doesn't really matter, fact is that every game can run on Switch. On more demanding games they can more downgrade visuals, Switch version of Doom has almost all effects same like PS4/XB1 versions and strong AA, they could turn of some of those effecta and AA and go for higher resolution for instance. Just for record, Doom on PS4 works on dynamic 1080p resolution and have frame rate dips to 50 FPS, XB1 version of game runs most of time at 865p and have frame rate to 40 fps.

 

 

Your posts again didn't make too much sense.

doom has a lot of effects down graded, regardless  the most demanding thing in graphics is resolution and fps and thats already at 600p, running at 20-30fps when intense battles happen, and its not just about graphics, its about cpu,  demanding games designed for ps4/xb1 are taking full advantage of 7 cores, while switch only has 3. so fact is some games cannot run on switch, unless they build it from the ground up, and make a different game basically.