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Forums - Sales Discussion - PS4 VS Switch lifetime sales, which console will sell the most?

 

What do you expect?

NSW will win by a huge margin 53 16.06%
 
NSW will win by a small margin 75 22.73%
 
PS4 will win by a small margin 75 22.73%
 
PS4 will win by a huge margin 117 35.45%
 
Sorry, no troll XB1 option. :P Oh wait... 10 3.03%
 
Total:330
Barkley on 12 November 2017
The_Liquid_Laser said:
This table will have to create a new SSS rank just for the Switch. It is going to get all of the people who would normally be in the handheld market plus a huge chunk of the home console market. It will be a console like no other.



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KazumaKiryu on 12 November 2017

PS4 will win by a huge margin. Because of these facts:
1. stronger and better hardware
2. perfect west-and japanese GAMES-Support
3. the biggest Exclusives will be released on PS4 in 2018/19

And other interesting reasons: 4K is the beautiful future for videogames + 'Rockstar Games' wants to push PS4 a lot further with Red Dead Redemption 2 next year and later with GTA 6.

Last edited by KazumaKiryu - on 12 November 2017

Lawlight on 12 November 2017
VideoGameAccountant said:
fatslob-:O said:

It really isn't ... 

All of Nintendo's numbers in quarterly reports are SHIPMENTS ... (even when we're comparing on a fiscal year basis, PS4 is still going to ship more than the Switch according to Nintendo) 

You don't need WSJ to tell how many consoles were shipped during the fiscal year, we can get the figures from the console manufacturers themselves in their quarterly reports. The 25-30M figure is just a rumor and nothing more when Digitimes reported a rumor that Nintendo expected the Switch to ship 20M units for this fiscal year but they were off by 6M units when Nintendo only raised their forecast by 4M units totaling to 14M units for this fiscal year ... 

Actually, there might be precedent to show why the Switch may not match PS4 in it's second year and it doesn't matter how many games are releasing for a system but what are the relevant games. When all is said and done for this fiscal year Nintendo is expecting to ship a total of 16.74M units for the Switch and in comparison to the 3DS which released in a similar timeframe to the Switch had shipments totaling 17.13M units for the end of it's first fiscal year ... 

Nintendo is expecting to ship 14M units for this fiscal year on the backbone of Zelda, MK8:D, Splatoon 2 and SMO. For comparison the 3DS shipped roughly ~13.5M units in it's first fiscal year with games such as Nintendogs + Cats, Zelda, SM3DL and MK7 yet coincidentally they'll both have similar shipment totals ... 

We don't know what Switch's titles are going to be next year but 3DS in 2012 released with blockbusters such as NSMB2 and AC:NL was only able to increase shipment by ~400K units for the following fiscal year which amounted to ~13.9M units for the second fiscal year so if the release schedule on the Switch is anything like the 3DS was in 2012, there's not much chance for the Switch to keep up with the PS4 or let alone match it when it is already not doing so ... 

My numbers are not off but I do admit to using a different methodology such as using calendar years ... 

First, its common knowledge (even as back as my first account in 2008) that Nintendo reports sales figures as those to customers and Sony reports shipments (you can see this as the linked reference shipments for Sony). I couldn't find specifics on Nintendo IR site. If you have a source that says otherwise, I'd like to see it. We can just go with shipments because it really doesn't matter.

On the 25-30 million number, it's coming from the WSJ. The reporter has been right about numerous other things related to Nintendo. The most obvious one was that Nintendo was making a hybrid system. 

But even then, let's ignore that. Let's say Nintendo hasn't decided shipment numbers at all for FY 2018. Well, if we compare the PS4 to the Switch, they have sold about the same if Nintendo meets projections. The Switch was also supply constrained in both Japan and the US. Why couldn't it sell about what the PS4 sold in year 2? It's already selling what the PS4 did in year one (only a 6% difference if Nintendo meets projection and does not exceed them). 

What is funny is you want to compare it to the 3DS and not any other system. Why not compare it to the PS4? It's also would put it close to that. Why not compare it to the DS, which saw a much stronger year 2(and shipments of 25M would make it a similar case). The 3DS was the follow up to Nintendo's best selling systems ever, so wouldn't it have a strong launch? This is what you get when you look at the two fiscal years together rather than comparing each year individually. If you on;y look at the 3DS's first full fiscal year, Switch is projected to beat it. In fact, let's look at the titles for the first full fiscal years

2012 (4/1/2011 - 3/31/2012) - https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2012/120427e.pdf

 

  • Super Mario 3D Land - 5.84M
  • Mario Kart 7 - 5.24M
  • The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time 3D - 2.61M
  • Pokemon Rumble Blast - 1.08M
  • Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 4.42M
  • Splatoon 2 - 3.61M
  • The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 1.93M
  • ARMS - 1.35M
With only 6 months in, Nintendo's titles are doing better on the Switch than they did on the 3DS. Mario Kart 8 will outsell Mario Kart 7. The lowest game (ARMS) is already higher than the lowest game on 3DS (Pokemon Rumble Blast). Zelda on Switch will likely beat Zelda on 3DS. This also doesn't include Super Mario Odyssey (which has already broken 2 million) and Xenoblade Chronicles X (which could sell 1 million thanks to Zelda and Skyrim creating demand for those types of games). So in the software department, the Switch is doing better. 
You made the point that 3DS second year didn't see a huge increase despite Animal Crossing and NSMB. But software is already doing better on Switch, so why wouldn't we assume that these games would push the Switch more than they pushed the 3DS. If you compare 1st fiscal years for both, the Switch will likely sell more. If you look at the second, it will be night and day. But you are using the 3DS because it fits the trend you like. If you look at how software is doing on both, and what shipments are projected to be in the 2nd fiscal year, it wont be like the 3DS. You could argue it will be like the PS4. You could argue it could be like the DS. But it's already outperforming the 3DS and this is the one you want to use a base line.

 

Dude, Nintendo never reports sales to consumers. Everyone knows that. Why do you think the WiiU had a quarter of negative numbers in Europe? Sony is the only one to disclose sales to consumers a couple of times a year.



Teeqoz on 12 November 2017

Of the options in the poll, PS4 winning by a small margin (under 15 million counts as a small margin in my head) currently seems the most likely.

I don't think the Switch will be able to match the longevity the PS4 has demonstrated. It'll sell faster than the PS4 in its first three years, but its decline after that will be faster. In the end, both systems will end up above 100 million, with the PS4 probably ending up around 120, and the Switch ending up between 105 and 120.



tbone51 on 12 November 2017
Lawlight said:
VideoGameAccountant said:

First, its common knowledge (even as back as my first account in 2008) that Nintendo reports sales figures as those to customers and Sony reports shipments (you can see this as the linked reference shipments for Sony). I couldn't find specifics on Nintendo IR site. If you have a source that says otherwise, I'd like to see it. We can just go with shipments because it really doesn't matter.

On the 25-30 million number, it's coming from the WSJ. The reporter has been right about numerous other things related to Nintendo. The most obvious one was that Nintendo was making a hybrid system. 

But even then, let's ignore that. Let's say Nintendo hasn't decided shipment numbers at all for FY 2018. Well, if we compare the PS4 to the Switch, they have sold about the same if Nintendo meets projections. The Switch was also supply constrained in both Japan and the US. Why couldn't it sell about what the PS4 sold in year 2? It's already selling what the PS4 did in year one (only a 6% difference if Nintendo meets projection and does not exceed them). 

What is funny is you want to compare it to the 3DS and not any other system. Why not compare it to the PS4? It's also would put it close to that. Why not compare it to the DS, which saw a much stronger year 2(and shipments of 25M would make it a similar case). The 3DS was the follow up to Nintendo's best selling systems ever, so wouldn't it have a strong launch? This is what you get when you look at the two fiscal years together rather than comparing each year individually. If you on;y look at the 3DS's first full fiscal year, Switch is projected to beat it. In fact, let's look at the titles for the first full fiscal years

2012 (4/1/2011 - 3/31/2012) - https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2012/120427e.pdf

 

  • Super Mario 3D Land - 5.84M
  • Mario Kart 7 - 5.24M
  • The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time 3D - 2.61M
  • Pokemon Rumble Blast - 1.08M
  • Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 4.42M
  • Splatoon 2 - 3.61M
  • The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 1.93M
  • ARMS - 1.35M
With only 6 months in, Nintendo's titles are doing better on the Switch than they did on the 3DS. Mario Kart 8 will outsell Mario Kart 7. The lowest game (ARMS) is already higher than the lowest game on 3DS (Pokemon Rumble Blast). Zelda on Switch will likely beat Zelda on 3DS. This also doesn't include Super Mario Odyssey (which has already broken 2 million) and Xenoblade Chronicles X (which could sell 1 million thanks to Zelda and Skyrim creating demand for those types of games). So in the software department, the Switch is doing better. 
You made the point that 3DS second year didn't see a huge increase despite Animal Crossing and NSMB. But software is already doing better on Switch, so why wouldn't we assume that these games would push the Switch more than they pushed the 3DS. If you compare 1st fiscal years for both, the Switch will likely sell more. If you look at the second, it will be night and day. But you are using the 3DS because it fits the trend you like. If you look at how software is doing on both, and what shipments are projected to be in the 2nd fiscal year, it wont be like the 3DS. You could argue it will be like the PS4. You could argue it could be like the DS. But it's already outperforming the 3DS and this is the one you want to use a base line.

 

Dude, Nintendo never reports sales to consumers. Everyone knows that. Why do you think the WiiU had a quarter of negative numbers in Europe? Sony is the only one to disclose sales to consumers a couple of times a year.

They are also the only one of the 2 companies (nintendo and sony) that dont disclose ship numbers for all their hardware 



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Bofferbrauer2 on 12 November 2017
Kyuu said:
RolStoppable said:
Switch is going to take this.

People still make the mistake to consider Switch either a home console or a handheld depending on what best suits their argument at any given time. But since the market reception clearly points towards the best of both worlds, sales projections should be made in accordance to that. The home console and handheld market combined are bigger than the home console market alone.

What if Sony makes a portable version of PS4 by 2019/2020? (assuming PS4/Xbox4 are launching in 2021.. and Switch 2 in 2022/23) How much impact can we expect that to have?

Considering what happened with the Vita, i fear not much impact at all.

Oh, and you surely meant PS5 for 2021, right?

By the way, I don't think the Switch will end in just 4-5 years as some seem to point at. The Wii dropped fast, so the Wii U came basically as an emergency (hence why the internal hardware was still based on the GC chip) and when it failed, it got cut short as soon as Nintendo could. But I don't see anything like that happening with the Switch, for several reasons:

1. Unlike the Wii U, the Switch is a great success, so there's no need to cut it short.

2. I'm sure there will be several versions in the future, a bit like with the 3DS/XL/New/2DS. In the next 2 years I'd see a Switch XL coming and by 2020 a hardware revision. Instead of a Switch mini, I'm expecting a Switch phone (Switch from Handheld to Smartphone, to keep the "switching" theme up) with the upgraded hardware but clocked down to reach the original's power to save on battery life



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RandyS86 on 12 November 2017

I think it depends of how soon PS5 is released and whether or not the Switch gets a mid-generation upgrade like the 3DS did. If the current Switch is Nintendo's only version of the console I just don't see it outselling the PS4.



Miyamotoo on 12 November 2017
KazumaKiryu said:

PS4 will win by a huge margin. Because of these facts:
1. stronger and better hardware
2. perfect west-and japanese GAMES-Support
3. the biggest Exclusives will be released on PS4 in 2018/19

 

Tell me man from future, what exclusives Switch will have in 2018/2019!? :D



peachbuggy on 12 November 2017
Teeqoz said:
Of the options in the poll, PS4 winning by a small margin (under 15 million counts as a small margin in my head) currently seems the most likely.

I don't think the Switch will be able to match the longevity the PS4 has demonstrated. It'll sell faster than the PS4 in its first three years, but its decline after that will be faster. In the end, both systems will end up above 100 million, with the PS4 probably ending up around 120, and the Switch ending up between 105 and 120.

That's exactly how i see it!



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Azuren on 12 November 2017
RolStoppable said:

You certainly have an anti-Nintendo agenda, so playing innocent isn't going to matter.



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