fatslob-:O said:
StarDoor said:
For how much longer are you going to use the same tired arguments and logical fallacies?
1.) 3DS was $170. Switch is exceeding its performance while costing $130 more. Yet, in your mind, this indicates equivalent demand for the product.
2.) NSMB2 and AC:NL were the only blockbusters that 3DS had in 2012, and AC:NL didn't even release anywhere except Japan and South Korea until June 2013. In terms of system sellers, 2011, 2013, and even 2014 have superior lineups. Of course, by this point, 3DS already had a tarnished reputation, so it's laughable that you think Switch will follow the same trajectory.
3.) DS and PS2 were both behind PS4 by the end of their first full fiscal years, yet, as of 16 quarters, both are now ahead. PS2 is ahead by 2M despite not launching anywhere except Japan for the its first three quarters. DS launched similarly to PS4, except with a delayed Q1 launch in Europe instead of Japan, and is ahead by 16.8M. On the other hand, GBA and Wii had much better first years than PS4, but we certianly don't expect PS4 to end up behind those two consoles. Clearly, first year performance tells us little about the differences in lifetime sales between successful platforms. All we can say is that platforms with good sales right off the bat continue to have good sales.
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1) I thought rol made the point that price didn't matter in the 3DS's advantage ? You're not going to follow with him in that regard ?
There's many ways to determine demand but price and demand goes hand in hand. A basic economic theory is that the demand of service/goods that are sensitive to price are said to be elastic ...
If the 3DS at $170 is just as desirable as the Switch is at $300 then so be it ...
2) The fact that Nintendo is expecting to ship 16.74M units total for the first fiscal means that the Switch so far is expected to have a similar trajectory to the 3DS. 3DS was hardly what anyone would describe as "tarnished" when it went on to sell 7M units in the last quarter of 2011 according to this sites data so consumers must have forgiven it one way or another ... (Both Switch and 3DS had a similar set of titles yet coincidentally Nintendo are expecting similar market response for no reason ?)
Also 2014 for the 3DS was fairly "meh" worthy when most of the big titles were just second entries on the same platform so that's why 2012 saw higher hardware sales for the 3DS than 2014 despite the fact the latter had more big releases ...
3) OK, I concede you have a point that first year sales don't tell much about lifetime sales but at the same time you cannot easily discard the possibility that the Switch might very well only match the 3DS when both had a similar set of games so far in their life but to only end up with similar expectations up to a certain point ...
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1.) I don't think I have ever seen Rol argue that 3DS getting a price cut was completely irrelevant to its sales in its first year, so I have a strong suspicion that you have severely misunderstood Rol's arguments. It's either that, or you are purposely mischaracterizing his argument. More to the point, you have already described exactly why it is illogical to expect Switch to plateau in the same manner as 3DS. If you already are aware of price elasticity of demand, then for what purpose are you still being stubborn about Switch having an advantage in its room for price cuts?
2.) Do you honestly not understand the concept of sales curves? The only alternative is that you are feigning ignorance for the sole purpose of belittling Switch's performance. According to your logic, PS4 also had a similar trajectory to 3DS, but this completely ignores the actual market situation that both consoles were in at the end of their first complete fiscal years.
Also, did you completely miss the slew of negative press in the months after 3DS's release? 3DS's reputation was tarnished in the same sense that PS3's reputation was tarnished. Their sales look good in a vacuum, but neither console matched the historical performance of their respective brands. Nintendo may have cut the price to stem the bleeding, but that didn't change its overall trajectory. It just shifted the sales curve forward, which is why 3DS's first and second years were so similar in performance. How much do you think 3DS would have sold in FY3/2012 had it not received a price cut? Judging by its Q1 shipment of 0.71, it probably would have sold half as much.
Switch does not have this problem. It did not need a price cut in its first year, and it is selling better than 3DS was selling at its peak. Even if you assume a perfectly equal library (which is already absurd, given the greater development resources from combining home console and handheld divisions,) Switch will necessarily do better than 3DS because it will follow a standard console trajectory with a distinct peak.
I suppose I should also address your argument about how Switch will either plateau or decline in the following years because of how many heavy hitters have already released.
This is complete garbage, and you clearly do not understand the power of Nintendo's back catalog.
Take DS's peak year of 2008. Can you guess what fantastic new games released in that year, that propelled it to such heights? Well, the answer is: Nothing. The best-selling new DS game of 2008 was Mario and Sonic at the Olympic games, which sold 3.7 million copies. Next up was Guitar Hero: On Tour at 2.5 million. Then Pokemon Platinum at 2.3 million. Of course, Pokemon doesn't count because Diamond and Pearl were already released, and as you so often argue, new games of the same franchise don't help consoles sales. Isn't that right?
In any case, the new games of 2008 were lacking too much in both quantity and quality to explain the 29.7 million units that DS sold in 2008. What can explain DS's sales in that year is the fact that Brain Age 1/2, New Super Mario Bros, Nintendogs, and Mario Kart DS continued to be sales monsters years after release.
So, go ahead. Please explain to us why games like Super Mario Odyssey and Breath of the Wild, despite being some of the best, if not the best games in their respective franchises, are going to have far less sustained selling power than the mostly play-it-safe titles on 3DS.
