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Forums - Sales Discussion - PS4 VS Switch lifetime sales, which console will sell the most?

 

What do you expect?

NSW will win by a huge margin 53 16.06%
 
NSW will win by a small margin 75 22.73%
 
PS4 will win by a small margin 75 22.73%
 
PS4 will win by a huge margin 117 35.45%
 
Sorry, no troll XB1 option. :P Oh wait... 10 3.03%
 
Total:330
medeste on 12 November 2017

I think Ps4 can reach close to 80 milion, switch should sell well and reach 50 million, but by that time new consoles from Sony and MS should lower the interest in the nintendo console.
Anyway if Nintendo delivers more and more exclusives and continues to appeal the really young gamers, and update the switch regularly like they did on the 3ds, I believe they can outsell the 3ds.



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Lawlight on 12 November 2017
tbone51 said:
Lawlight said:

Dude, Nintendo never reports sales to consumers. Everyone knows that. Why do you think the WiiU had a quarter of negative numbers in Europe? Sony is the only one to disclose sales to consumers a couple of times a year.

They are also the only one of the 2 companies (nintendo and sony) that dont disclose ship numbers for all their hardware 

Yeps. Why do you think Nintendo hides sold through numbers?



Bofferbrauer2 on 12 November 2017
fatslob-:O said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

Ehm... what?

I'll give you the time of launch, and the initial price was pretty high for a pure handheld which put it close to the Switch, but that's about it.

About the Lineup, the 3DS was starving during it's first year, unlike the Switch. Also, The 3DS needed a huge pricedrop to sell well, and even after that the sales where lower than what the Switch is achieving without any pricedrop

By your logic, we should compare the PS4 to the 360 and thus the PS4 wouldn't achieve more than 85M lifetime. Sounds Bullshit? Well, it is, but not more than your comparison of the Switch with the 3DS

Also, both the DS and the 3DS got revisions. New 3DS and DSi ring any bells?

About what you replied to my post: Moving the goalpost, much? First you claim the Switch can't keep up with the PS4 and now you say it's a great achievement for the PS4 to keep up with the Switch? Nevermind the fact that the PS4 is very established now and has a big library of games, it was to be expected that it would do very well this year (though I admit I didn't expect it to do that well). I also don't get where you got the slowest year, unless you meant the Switch with that, because it's by far and large the best year for the PS4 so far - and yet the PS4 gets beaten in the US repeatedly and trashed in Japan by the Switch. It's only in Europe where the PS4 really shines, though admittedly by a gig margin.

I don't think you mean any bad, but with clipping the Switch to the 3DS you made a fatal mistake because they are very different in how they went in their first year

Oh, and about Amazon: The Switch goes regularly out of stock there, just check the Amazon US thread and see for yourself. And what gets sold there are just preorders for the next shipments, as Amazon can't keep up with the demand; it hasn't really been in stock since the prelude to the Odyssey launch anymore.

PS4 easily beat the 360 so I don't know what point you're trying to make there and 2014 pretty much was PS4's slowest year ... 

Switch is also in stock at amazon US right now ... (Switch supply issues didn't keep persisting in the US even after the release of SMO!) 

The gray one does. As for the neon, it says:

Platform: Nintendo Switch

In stock on November 15, 2017. 
Order it now.

So yeah, the neon one is still supply constrained, and pretty much was all the time since mid October.



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quickrick on 12 November 2017
Bofferbrauer2 said:
fatslob-:O said:

PS4 easily beat the 360 so I don't know what point you're trying to make there and 2014 pretty much was PS4's slowest year ... 

Switch is also in stock at amazon US right now ... (Switch supply issues didn't keep persisting in the US even after the release of SMO!) 

The gray one does. As for the neon, it says:

Platform: Nintendo Switch

In stock on November 15, 2017. 
Order it now.

So yeah, the neon one is still supply constrained, and pretty much was all the time since mid October.

neon is available at best buy and walmart online, and being in stock in 3 days is a very short wait anyway.



fatslob-:O on 12 November 2017
Bofferbrauer2 said:

The gray one does. As for the neon, it says:

Platform: Nintendo Switch

In stock on November 15, 2017. 
Order it now.

So yeah, the neon one is still supply constrained, and pretty much was all the time since mid October.

A SKU is not available, however that does not mean that the Switch itself is not available and at MSRP ... 

As a side note, the comparison between the Switch and the Wii/DS doesn't make much sense either when we consider that the both systems have different demographics too ... 



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VideoGameAccountant on 12 November 2017
fatslob-:O said:

VideoGameAccountant said:

First, its common knowledge (even as back as my first account in 2008) that Nintendo reports sales figures as those to customers and Sony reports shipments (you can see this as the linked reference shipments for Sony). I couldn't find specifics on Nintendo IR site. If you have a source that says otherwise, I'd like to see it. We can just go with shipments because it really doesn't matter.

On the 25-30 million number, it's coming from the WSJ. The reporter has been right about numerous other things related to Nintendo. The most obvious one was that Nintendo was making a hybrid system. 

But even then, let's ignore that. Let's say Nintendo hasn't decided shipment numbers at all for FY 2018. Well, if we compare the PS4 to the Switch, they have sold about the same if Nintendo meets projections. The Switch was also supply constrained in both Japan and the US. Why couldn't it sell about what the PS4 sold in year 2? It's already selling what the PS4 did in year one (only a 6% difference if Nintendo meets projection and does not exceed them). 

What is funny is you want to compare it to the 3DS and not any other system. Why not compare it to the PS4? It's also would put it close to that. Why not compare it to the DS, which saw a much stronger year 2(and shipments of 25M would make it a similar case). The 3DS was the follow up to Nintendo's best selling systems ever, so wouldn't it have a strong launch? This is what you get when you look at the two fiscal years together rather than comparing each year individually. If you on;y look at the 3DS's first full fiscal year, Switch is projected to beat it. In fact, let's look at the titles for the first full fiscal years

2012 (4/1/2011 - 3/31/2012) - https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2012/120427e.pdf

 

  • Super Mario 3D Land - 5.84M
  • Mario Kart 7 - 5.24M
  • The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time 3D - 2.61M
  • Pokemon Rumble Blast - 1.08M
  • Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 4.42M
  • Splatoon 2 - 3.61M
  • The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 1.93M
  • ARMS - 1.35M
With only 6 months in, Nintendo's titles are doing better on the Switch than they did on the 3DS. Mario Kart 8 will outsell Mario Kart 7. The lowest game (ARMS) is already higher than the lowest game on 3DS (Pokemon Rumble Blast). Zelda on Switch will likely beat Zelda on 3DS. This also doesn't include Super Mario Odyssey (which has already broken 2 million) and Xenoblade Chronicles X (which could sell 1 million thanks to Zelda and Skyrim creating demand for those types of games). So in the software department, the Switch is doing better. 
You made the point that 3DS second year didn't see a huge increase despite Animal Crossing and NSMB. But software is already doing better on Switch, so why wouldn't we assume that these games would push the Switch more than they pushed the 3DS. If you compare 1st fiscal years for both, the Switch will likely sell more. If you look at the second, it will be night and day. But you are using the 3DS because it fits the trend you like. If you look at how software is doing on both, and what shipments are projected to be in the 2nd fiscal year, it wont be like the 3DS. You could argue it will be like the PS4. You could argue it could be like the DS. But it's already outperforming the 3DS and this is the one you want to use a base line.

Lawlight summed it up for you nicely in the first paragraph and It's ironic that you're a "VideoGameAccountant" when you make such as basic mistake ... 

Again, that figure is just a rumor and Switch supply stopped being an issue for the US in the past 3 months since you can buy a Switch at MSRP from 3 big retailers such as Amazon, Gamestop and Walmart so people such as peachbuggy are giving the Switch demand way too much credit ... 

I already explained why there's a possibility the Switch might not be able to match the PS4 in it's second year in my previous post so I won't reiterate again ... 

Why not compare it to the 3DS ? Their not too dissimilar in terms of launch, pricing and lineup in their lifetime so far. Comparing the Switch to the DS makes no sense when the latter had a revision released while there's no revision on the horizon for the former, both have very different sets of titles in their first year and they didn't even launch in the same period either ... 

Switch selling more software does not necessarily mean that the Switch itself will sell more as indicated by Nintendo's expected forecast so while Nintendo's games are breaking records, their hardware isn't ... 

Really not hard to see the relationship between the Switch and 3DS when you look at the launch, games and most importantly forecast ... 

Your argument is based on ignoring information or discounting what I've said.

First, you claim that my "simple mistake" is using the "rumor" for the 2nd FY numbers. You say it as if its a random reddit or NeoGAF user. The report came from a reputable business journal from a reporter who has been correct about other aspects of Nintendo's business. But you call it a "rumor" because it doesn't fit with your argument. Nevertheless, I even said "let's ignore that," so I'm not sure how you can even call it a mistake as my response didn't even incorperate that.

And even after I bring them up, you still ignore the PS4 and DS comparison. You say that the DS is too "dissimilar," because of a different launch period and had a revision. This is why I'm comparing them by fiscal year in the first place. Also, didn't the 3DS have a price cut in the same time period? Wouldn't that make them too dissimilar? Wouldn't the lack of Pilotwings and Nintendogs also make the 3DS dissimilar to the Switch. Again, it seems like it's only "dissimilar" because comparing it to the DS doesn't help your argument. 

But how about I kill this narrative right now. Let's actually go look at the sales of the two systems quarter by quarter

3DS 

 

Switch
So if you compare the Switch to the 3DS, as you suggested we do, then already the Switch is tracking ahead of the 3DS. I should also note that it was in Q2 that the system received an $80 price cut, and the Switch outsold it by almost 2 million, tracking 62 percent higher. This also lines up with the software numbers (which you ignored). If we apply this to the third quarter, the 3DS sold 11.43 million. If we assume the Switch is tracking at the same amount it was in Q2, thats 18.5 million by the end of the third quarter. Now, it may not be that high, but even if we compare it to the 3DS (which you so want to do), the Switch will perform better as the system is outperforming the 3DS at the same time frame. 
As an additional note, the 3DS only had a single title in the million seller category in Q2: Ocarina of Time 3D selling 1.68 million. Breath of the Wild alone sold more. 
What this shows is how wrong your assessment is.  You assumed the Switch was doing poorly because Nintendo projections were lower than 3DS actual. As a result, your assessment of the future is off too. You're assuming that the system will have a weak 2nd year because Nintendo released numerous strong titles this year. Nintendo still has multiple 10 million+ franchises, not on the Switch (Smash, AC, Pokemon, 2D Mario). Because the projection for the Switch is low than the 3DS actual, that these titles wouldn't do much for Switch software. However, when you look at the 3DS, you see that the system is selling better and the games are doing better. All of this points to the Switch doing far better than what you are saying.
But I'm sure you'll say the 3DS is too dissimilar and we now need to compare it to the Nintendo Gamecube. 


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Intrinsic on 12 November 2017
RolStoppable said:

I don't believe that you don't have an anti-Nintendo agenda. I remember your threads. You think of yourself as objective, but there's evidence in your posting history that you are grasping for straws in your analytical approach when it comes to Nintendo consoles.

So did I feel the NS would not sell more than 50M consoles before its launch. Yes. I stateed my reasons back then. Do I hate certain things nintendo does till this day? Yes. Do I think the NS is too expensive? Yes.

I am equally as critical of every other platform. Like I feel sony can be doing a lot more with their OS. And hate how the start things they never really finish a lot of times. And don't get me started on MS.

Now if these opinions to you makes you feel I have an anti nintendo agenda and hid it behind objectivity? Then there is nothing I can do about that. I have said this to nintendo fans before. let your money do the talking. If I hate nintendo as much as you seem to suggest... why would i support their hardware and software. I could have just gone and got a VIta instead.



zorg1000 on 12 November 2017
quickrick said:

switch year one will be its best, because its releasing all it's big franchises, and because excluding the wii. nintendo home consoles since the 3d era sell there best  the first year. 

They released all their big franchises? I think you are fogetting about the 10+ million selling franchises like Pokemon, Smash Bros, 2D Mario & Animal Crossing or their 5+ million franchises like Tomodachi Life & Luigi's Mansion.

Nevermind all their 1-3 million selling games like Kirby, Metroid, Fire Emblem, Yoshi, Xenoblade, Paper Mario, Kid Icarus, Mario Party, 2D Zelda, Donkey Kong, Mario & Luigi, Pokemon Mystery Dungeon, Pikmin, Nintendogs, etc.

On top of that they have yet to bundle games, cut price or release revisions so Nintendo certainly has a shitload of things they can do to maintain momentum for the next few years.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

p0isonparadise on 12 November 2017
zorg1000 said:
quickrick said:

switch year one will be its best, because its releasing all it's big franchises, and because excluding the wii. nintendo home consoles since the 3d era sell there best  the first year. 

They released all their big franchises? I think you are fogetting about the 10+ million selling franchises like Pokemon, Smash Bros, 2D Mario & Animal Crossing or their 5+ million franchises like Tomodachi Life & Luigi's Mansion.

Nevermind all their 1-3 million selling games like Kirby, Metroid, Fire Emblem, Yoshi, Xenoblade, Paper Mario, Kid Icarus, Mario Party, 2D Zelda, Donkey Kong, Mario & Luigi, Pokemon Mystery Dungeon, Pikmin, Nintendogs, etc.

On top of that they have yet to bundle games, cut price or release revisions so Nintendo certainly has a shitload of things they can do to maintain momentum for the next few years.

You also forgot about a Switch exclusive Mario Kart and 3D Zelda. 



quickrick on 12 November 2017
zorg1000 said:
quickrick said:

switch year one will be its best, because its releasing all it's big franchises, and because excluding the wii. nintendo home consoles since the 3d era sell there best  the first year. 

They released all their big franchises? I think you are fogetting about the 10+ million selling franchises like Pokemon, Smash Bros, 2D Mario & Animal Crossing or their 5+ million franchises like Tomodachi Life & Luigi's Mansion.

Nevermind all their 1-3 million selling games like Kirby, Metroid, Fire Emblem, Yoshi, Xenoblade, Paper Mario, Kid Icarus, Mario Party, 2D Zelda, Donkey Kong, Mario & Luigi, Pokemon Mystery Dungeon, Pikmin, Nintendogs, etc.

On top of that they have yet to bundle games, cut price or release revisions so Nintendo certainly has a shitload of things they can do to maintain momentum for the next few years.

i don't see anything touching this year for a few reasons. they released there next console and handheld, and nintendo home consoles typically sell best in there first year in the 3d era with exception being the wii. so that will give a nice boost over 3ds sales this year, then you have the highest rated zelda game since OOT, highest rated mario ever, mario kart, and splatton 2 which is a phenomena in japan, the majority of nintedo fans would have already picked up or wanna pick a switch  this year, but well see ill happily eat crow.

Last edited by quickrick - on 12 November 2017