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Forums - Sales Discussion - PS4 VS Switch lifetime sales, which console will sell the most?

 

What do you expect?

NSW will win by a huge margin 53 16.06%
 
NSW will win by a small margin 75 22.73%
 
PS4 will win by a small margin 75 22.73%
 
PS4 will win by a huge margin 117 35.45%
 
Sorry, no troll XB1 option. :P Oh wait... 10 3.03%
 
Total:330
fatslob-:O on 12 November 2017
VideoGameAccountant said:

Your argument is based on ignoring information or discounting what I've said.

First, you claim that my "simple mistake" is using the "rumor" for the 2nd FY numbers. You say it as if its a random reddit or NeoGAF user. The report came from a reputable business journal from a reporter who has been correct about other aspects of Nintendo's business. But you call it a "rumor" because it doesn't fit with your argument. Nevertheless, I even said "let's ignore that," so I'm not sure how you can even call it a mistake as my response didn't even incorperate that.

And even after I bring them up, you still ignore the PS4 and DS comparison. You say that the DS is too "dissimilar," because of a different launch period and had a revision. This is why I'm comparing them by fiscal year in the first place. Also, didn't the 3DS have a price cut in the same time period? Wouldn't that make them too dissimilar? Wouldn't the lack of Pilotwings and Nintendogs also make the 3DS dissimilar to the Switch. Again, it seems like it's only "dissimilar" because comparing it to the DS doesn't help your argument. 

But how about I kill this narrative right now. Let's actually go look at the sales of the two systems quarter by quarter

3DS 

 

Switch
So if you compare the Switch to the 3DS, as you suggested we do, then already the Switch is tracking ahead of the 3DS. I should also note that it was in Q2 that the system received an $80 price cut, and the Switch outsold it by almost 2 million, tracking 62 percent higher. This also lines up with the software numbers (which you ignored). If we apply this to the third quarter, the 3DS sold 11.43 million. If we assume the Switch is tracking at the same amount it was in Q2, thats 18.5 million by the end of the third quarter. Now, it may not be that high, but even if we compare it to the 3DS (which you so want to do), the Switch will perform better as the system is outperforming the 3DS at the same time frame. 
As an additional note, the 3DS only had a single title in the million seller category in Q2: Ocarina of Time 3D selling 1.68 million. Breath of the Wild alone sold more. 
What this shows is how wrong your assessment is.  You assumed the Switch was doing poorly because Nintendo projections were lower than 3DS actual. As a result, your assessment of the future is off too. You're assuming that the system will have a weak 2nd year because Nintendo released numerous strong titles this year. Nintendo still has multiple 10 million+ franchises, not on the Switch (Smash, AC, Pokemon, 2D Mario). Because the projection for the Switch is low than the 3DS actual, that these titles wouldn't do much for Switch software. However, when you look at the 3DS, you see that the system is selling better and the games are doing better. All of this points to the Switch doing far better than what you are saying.
But I'm sure you'll say the 3DS is too dissimilar and we now need to compare it to the Nintendo Gamecube. 

No, your error was thinking that Nintendo's quarterly reports shared sold numbers rather shipped numbers but there are many other things you got wrong ... 

It pretty much is a rumor so far since Nintendo never confirmed it or denied it themselves ... 

Actually, the Switch managed to match the 3DS in terms of game lineup quite nicely in a similar timeframe. Both had Zelda, Mario Kart and 3D Mario. The only different game between them were Nintendogs + Cats and Splatoon 2. Pilotwings ended up being irrelevant according to this site so both systems had 3/4 of the same biggest franchises at a similar point. 3DS did have a price cut but that just indicates consumers thought it had initially bad value proposition. The DS had many more differences than a revision but the demographics are also vastly different between it and the Switch so they don't even have same appeal ... (it shows since Nintendo isn't pursuing the so called 'blue ocean' strategy anymore)

Yes, the Switch is outperforming the 3DS right now in that timeframe but by the end of this fiscal year Nintendo expects both to be at par in terms of shipment ... (Nintendo still had yet to release SM3DL, MK7 and MH Tri while the Switch had already released Zelda, MK8D and Splatoon which just left SMO) 

3DS had 3 STRAIGHT weeks in a row where it sold over 1M units in 2011 and 5 weeks in a row where it sold over 500K units in 2011! It's doubtful that the Switch will be able to match that peak during the holidays ... 

AC:NL and NSMB2 just barely cleared 10M+ units and Smash for 3DS did not sell 10M+ units unless you want to count the WII U version too ... 

As for the last line, I think you might need to get past the first stage of grief ... 



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COKTOE on 12 November 2017

I went with PS4 by a small margin, which feels like a cozy choice. Roll around on the carpet and stretch like a cat cozy.



- "If you have the heart of a true winner, you can always get more pissed off than some other asshole."

VideoGameAccountant on 12 November 2017
fatslob-:O said:
VideoGameAccountant said:

Your argument is based on ignoring information or discounting what I've said.

First, you claim that my "simple mistake" is using the "rumor" for the 2nd FY numbers. You say it as if its a random reddit or NeoGAF user. The report came from a reputable business journal from a reporter who has been correct about other aspects of Nintendo's business. But you call it a "rumor" because it doesn't fit with your argument. Nevertheless, I even said "let's ignore that," so I'm not sure how you can even call it a mistake as my response didn't even incorperate that.

And even after I bring them up, you still ignore the PS4 and DS comparison. You say that the DS is too "dissimilar," because of a different launch period and had a revision. This is why I'm comparing them by fiscal year in the first place. Also, didn't the 3DS have a price cut in the same time period? Wouldn't that make them too dissimilar? Wouldn't the lack of Pilotwings and Nintendogs also make the 3DS dissimilar to the Switch. Again, it seems like it's only "dissimilar" because comparing it to the DS doesn't help your argument. 

But how about I kill this narrative right now. Let's actually go look at the sales of the two systems quarter by quarter

3DS 

 

Switch
So if you compare the Switch to the 3DS, as you suggested we do, then already the Switch is tracking ahead of the 3DS. I should also note that it was in Q2 that the system received an $80 price cut, and the Switch outsold it by almost 2 million, tracking 62 percent higher. This also lines up with the software numbers (which you ignored). If we apply this to the third quarter, the 3DS sold 11.43 million. If we assume the Switch is tracking at the same amount it was in Q2, thats 18.5 million by the end of the third quarter. Now, it may not be that high, but even if we compare it to the 3DS (which you so want to do), the Switch will perform better as the system is outperforming the 3DS at the same time frame. 
As an additional note, the 3DS only had a single title in the million seller category in Q2: Ocarina of Time 3D selling 1.68 million. Breath of the Wild alone sold more. 
What this shows is how wrong your assessment is.  You assumed the Switch was doing poorly because Nintendo projections were lower than 3DS actual. As a result, your assessment of the future is off too. You're assuming that the system will have a weak 2nd year because Nintendo released numerous strong titles this year. Nintendo still has multiple 10 million+ franchises, not on the Switch (Smash, AC, Pokemon, 2D Mario). Because the projection for the Switch is low than the 3DS actual, that these titles wouldn't do much for Switch software. However, when you look at the 3DS, you see that the system is selling better and the games are doing better. All of this points to the Switch doing far better than what you are saying.
But I'm sure you'll say the 3DS is too dissimilar and we now need to compare it to the Nintendo Gamecube. 

No, your error was thinking that Nintendo's quarterly reports shared sold numbers rather shipped numbers but there are many other things you got wrong ... 

It pretty much is a rumor so far since Nintendo never confirmed it or denied it themselves ... 

Actually, the Switch managed to match the 3DS in terms of game lineup quite nicely in a similar timeframe. Both had Zelda, Mario Kart and 3D Mario. The different game between them were Nintendogs + Cats and Splatoon 2. Pilotwings ended up being irrelevant according to this site so both systems had 3/4 of the same biggest franchises at a similar point. 3DS did have a price cut but that just indicates consumers thought it had initially bad value proposition. The DS had many more differences than a revision but the demographics are also vastly different between it and the Switch so they don't even have same appeal ... (it shows since Nintendo isn't pursuing the so called 'blue ocean' strategy anymore)

Yes, the Switch is outperforming the 3DS right now in that timeframe but by the end of this fiscal year Nintendo expects both to be at par in terms of shipment ... (Nintendo still had yet to release SM3DL, MK7 and MH Tri while the Switch had already released Zelda, MK8D and Splatoon which just left SMO) 

3DS had 3 STRAIGHT weeks in a row where it sold over 1M units in 2011 and 5 weeks in a row where it sold over 500K units in 2011! It's doubtful that the Switch will be able to match that peak during the holidays ... 

AC:NL and NSMB2 just barely cleared 10M+ units and Smash for 3DS did not sell 10M+ units unless you want to count the WII U version too ... 

As for the last line, I think you might need to get past the first stage of grief ... 

I find it very cute that you said I was wrong yet you wrote that post. 

First, you don't understand that projections are not the same as actual. Fun fact, did you know that Nintendo revised their projection for the 3DS downward. They originally expected the system to sell 16 million but revised it downward in the third quarter. They, of course, didn't sell 16 million. 14 million is what Nintendo is projecting for the Switch, but Nintendo is also very conservative as well. It goes back to what I said about ignoring information that doesn't fit your conclusion. I showed you how the system could sell over 14 million and could be at 18 million by the end of the third quarter, but that doesn't matter. 

"Its doubtful Switch will be able to match that peak during the holiday." And why not? The Switch is already outselling the 3DS within the first two quarters. Why would it not do that during the third? You don't say. You just claim it's impossible. It can't happen.

You also keep bringing up shipment vs sales when I'm comparing the same reports (meaning it would be irrelevant if it was sold-in vs sold-through), so I'm not sure you even understand what's going on.

At this point, you are moving the goal post to avoid admitting your wrong. You were so sure about comparing the Switch to the 3DS, but when you are clearly shown that the Switch is outpacing the 3DS, you proclaim it can't sell the same numbers this holiday. Of course, you proclaim that with no actual facts or even arguments. And it's funny because you claim I'm in denial, but I've clearly shown you the numbers on how the Switch is outperforming. Your response is to say how it just can't  happen. That is the definition of denial. 



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ironmanDX on 12 November 2017

Ps4 for me. I originally scoffed at the Switch getting anywhere near 100 million units sold. I'm not scoffing any more. I'm only slightly skeptical. I will be more than happy to eat crow in a few years.

80-95 million for the Switch.
95-102 for the ps4.



zorg1000 on 12 November 2017
quickrick said:
zorg1000 said:

They released all their big franchises? I think you are fogetting about the 10+ million selling franchises like Pokemon, Smash Bros, 2D Mario & Animal Crossing or their 5+ million franchises like Tomodachi Life & Luigi's Mansion.

Nevermind all their 1-3 million selling games like Kirby, Metroid, Fire Emblem, Yoshi, Xenoblade, Paper Mario, Kid Icarus, Mario Party, 2D Zelda, Donkey Kong, Mario & Luigi, Pokemon Mystery Dungeon, Pikmin, Nintendogs, etc.

On top of that they have yet to bundle games, cut price or release revisions so Nintendo certainly has a shitload of things they can do to maintain momentum for the next few years.

i don't see anything touching this year for a few reasons. they released there next console and handheld, and nintendo home consoles typically sell best in there first year in the 3d era with exception being the wii. so that will give a nice boost over 3ds sales this year, then you have the highest rated zelda game since OOT, highest rated mario ever, mario kart, and splatton 2 which is a phenomena in japan, the majority of nintedo fans would have already picked up or wanna pick a switch  this year, but well see ill happily eat crow.

I get where you're coming from, Zelda+Mario Kart+Splatoon 2+3D Mario in a single year certainly is one hell of a lineup without even factoring the medium sized titles like ARMS, Pokken & Mario+Rabbids.

The problem I have with that line of thought is that theoretically PS4 should have peaked in 2014 considering  that by the end of 2014 it already had Call of Duty, Assassin Creed, FIFA, Madden, NBA, MLB, GTA, Battlefield, Destiny, Watch Dogs, Infamous, Killzone, Far Cry, MGS, Need for Speed, Last of Us, etc.

Like I said, Nintendo still had alot to offer for Switch in the coming years and using sales duds like N64, GC & Wii U to base your argument on isnt doing you any favors since Switch will easily outsell all 3 of them combined.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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quickrick on 12 November 2017
zorg1000 said:
quickrick said:

i don't see anything touching this year for a few reasons. they released there next console and handheld, and nintendo home consoles typically sell best in there first year in the 3d era with exception being the wii. so that will give a nice boost over 3ds sales this year, then you have the highest rated zelda game since OOT, highest rated mario ever, mario kart, and splatton 2 which is a phenomena in japan, the majority of nintedo fans would have already picked up or wanna pick a switch  this year, but well see ill happily eat crow.

I get where you're coming from, Zelda+Mario Kart+Splatoon 2+3D Mario in a single year certainly is one hell of a lineup without even factoring the medium sized titles like ARMS, Pokken & Mario+Rabbids.

The problem I have with that line of thought is that theoretically PS4 should have peaked in 2014 considering  that by the end of 2014 it already had Call of Duty, Assassin Creed, FIFA, Madden, NBA, MLB, GTA, Battlefield, Destiny, Watch Dogs, Infamous, Killzone, Far Cry, MGS, Need for Speed, Last of Us, etc.

Like I said, Nintendo still had alot to offer for Switch in the coming years and using sales duds like N64, GC & Wii U to base your argument on isnt doing you any favors since Switch will easily outsell all 3 of them combined.

I honestly don't how ps4 keeps selling, but it does have every single developer making games for it, so it has something for everyone. while those titles will still sell consoles they will lose there impact, but you have so much other titles plus word of mouth spreads.

Last edited by quickrick - on 12 November 2017

quickrick on 12 November 2017
ArchangelMadzz said:
Ryng_Tolu said:

Ok you know what, now you are just changing argument right there, because that was not the point.

And honestly, i won't even expain to you why i think this will be the case, for the simple fact that you still don't understand the conpect of the console. You, and a lot of guys, but maybe / probabily you will all start to understand how Switch concept is in a few years, and you will understand why.

I'll just reply to this part:

"Why do you think Switch will be selling more than PS4 consistently? It hasn't been happening so far.."

You seriusly don't understand that THE ONLY reason this isn't happen yet is because of stock issue? For real? And because for the nexts years PS4 will slow down? I mean, is not THAT hard to understand...

My entire argument is that the Switch will now Sell more LT than the PS4. That's literally the topic of the thread.
I understand the switch, I understand why it's selling and I understand that it's selling very very well but what I don't understand is why you think it will outsell PS4 LT. Reaching 60 million will happen but will be tough, and that's just to get where the PS4 was a couple of months ago. 


Every year people have said the PS4 will slow down, this train is only getting started ;) 

lol with spider man, god of war, and red dead redemption 2 ps4 will stomp switch next year. stock hasn't been a problem for 3 months in the usa, and europe.



fatslob-:O on 12 November 2017
VideoGameAccountant said:

I find it very cute that you said I was wrong yet you wrote that post. 

First, you don't understand that projections are not the same as actual. Fun fact, did you know that Nintendo revised their projection for the 3DS downward. They originally expected the system to sell 16 million but revised it downward in the third quarter. They, of course, didn't sell 16 million. 14 million is what Nintendo is projecting for the Switch, but Nintendo is also very conservative as well. It goes back to what I said about ignoring information that doesn't fit your conclusion. I showed you how the system could sell over 14 million and could be at 18 million by the end of the third quarter, but that doesn't matter. 

"Its doubtful Switch will be able to match that peak during the holiday." And why not? The Switch is already outselling the 3DS within the first two quarters. Why would it not do that during the third? You don't say. You just claim it's impossible. It can't happen.

You also keep bringing up shipment vs sales when I'm comparing the same reports (meaning it would be irrelevant if it was sold-in vs sold-through), so I'm not sure you even understand what's going on.

At this point, you are moving the goal post to avoid admitting your wrong. You were so sure about comparing the Switch to the 3DS, but when you are clearly shown that the Switch is outpacing the 3DS, you proclaim it can't sell the same numbers this holiday. Of course, you proclaim that with no actual facts or even arguments. And it's funny because you claim I'm in denial, but I've clearly shown you the numbers on how the Switch is outperforming. Your response is to say how it just can't  happen. That is the definition of denial. 

Still doesn't make you any less wrong for thinking that Nintendo shared sold through numbers instead of shipment ... (A "VideoGameAccount" that probably doesn't take a look at quarterly reports, well who'd have thunk it ?) 

Also, this was Nintendo's 5th biggest adjustment in a quarter and they're pretty much on track to meet their expectations comfortably when the Switch has yet to have stock issues (600K units in the channels as of the end of September and they just raised shipment expectations by 4M units too) so the only way Nintendo will be able to ship more units than what they forecast is if demand for the system outstrips availability ... (Nintendo stopped being conservative and started being realistic since the only time they ever adjusted hardware up this high was in the DS's third fiscal year in the first quarter) 

I never said "impossible" to begin so straw man much ? As for why well for one thing the Switch still can't match up to what the 3DS did in Japan this whole year and will fall further behind when the 3DS had SEVERAL weeks where it sold 200K+ units in Japan during the holidays so that's one region where the Switch already gets counted out despite the already strong performance. 3DS also managed to beat the the Switch in the US in August and will manage to come close in September so the system is well positioned for the holiday rush all things considered. 3DS's first holiday in the US was by far it's best holiday performance in the US in all of it's years and PS4 in any of it's years has yet to topple what the 3DS did in it's first December in the US so it's definitely a strong possibility that the 3DS will start catching up to the Switch in the US during the holidays and especially when the 3DS will get boosted by 3D Mario and Mario Kart simultaneously! So already the Switch won't be able to match what the 3DS did in it's holidays in Japan and it's also unlikely to match the 3DS in it's first holiday in the US which just leaves Europe ... (The 3DS in November in the US sold just as much as the Switch did in it's launch month in the US and the Switch was Nintendo biggest system launch ever) 

As for your last paragraph, distress much ? It's an undeniable fact that Nintendo is expecting Switch to be upto par with 3DS like it or not ... 



Miyamotoo on 13 November 2017
fatslob-:O said:
Miyamotoo said:

Its very hard to compare first PS4 FY and first Switch FY because of two reasons, first PS4 was launched during holiday season while Switch was launched in March, and second Switch most of time until now was supply constrained and still is in Japan for instance. So it will be much more accurate and more interesting to compare sales of full second year on market and based on that draw some conclusions.

Once Nintendo release 2D Mario, Animal Crossing, Pokemon, Smash Bros...they will start releasing new 3D Mario, new Zelda, new Mario Kart, new Pokemon, new IPs, some strong 3rd party exclusives...you forgetting that Switch is becoming only platform that Nintendo will support and they will not have any more deviaded resources on separate handheld and separate home console games, that automatically means much better support and much better managing of key and strong titles during evre year compared to past platforms.

Also, Switch like only Nintendo platform, will have few revisions (similar to 3DS family) that will further increase sales, so Switch platform can easily have more than 4 strong years, and actualy I think life span of "Switch family" will be quite long.

In my analysis I discounted PS4's first two quarters but even after that adjustment the PS4 still manages to come on top with ~14.8M units shipped in one of it's slower year while the Switch is only able to come close with arguably one of it's better year in terms of software releases and Switch's supply stopped being an issue for the past 3 months in every other region aside from Japan ... 

Digest the fact for a moment that the Switch was only able to come close to PS4 in it's slowest year so far with 4 of it's biggest franchises. That's not all, the scariest part is that PS4 going into it's 5th fiscal year still has a strong possibility of shipping more than it's 1st fiscal year and it may not yet be until it's 6th fiscal year that it will have the lowest amount of shipment! 

There's only so much hardware a second entry of those same franchises on the same platform can move and I doubt there'll be any strong 3rd party exclusives for the Switch when the biggest 3rd party exclusives on it's predecessor such as Monster Hunter and Yokai Watch are on a decline ... 

Its not true that Switch stopped to be supply constrained on evre market except Japan in past 3 monts, its more like past 1-2 monts for US (but even now you have some suply problems, for instance on Amazon US Mario Odyssey bundle is sold out basicly from launch), and Japan alone can make huge difference, we could have sold 3m until now instead 2m if there are not suple supply problems. Also Switch yet needs to finish its first FY on market its not like we talk about facts when it come to Switch numbers for hole FY. So fact is that it will be much more accurate and more interesting to compare sales of full second year on market and based on that draw some conclusions.

But you do realise that despite it was heavily suply constrained until recently and still it is heavily suply constrained in Japan, Switch won most of US NPD months from its launch and its selling much better in Japan, in year in which PS4 is strongest in 4 hole years on market!? Also Switch will most likely have much higher shipments on its second year on market than they will have in FY.

New Zelda, new 3D Mario, new Mario Kart, new Pokemon....potential strong 3rd party exclusives, potential stron new IPs...will of course move hardware. And revisions of hardware (for instance smaller and cheaper Switch Mini/Pocket), will gave huge boost in sales.

 

fatslob-:O said: 
StarDoor said: 

1.) I don't think I have ever seen Rol argue that 3DS getting a price cut was completely irrelevant to its sales in its first year, so I have a strong suspicion that you have severely misunderstood Rol's arguments. It's either that, or you are purposely mischaracterizing his argument. More to the point, you have already described exactly why it is illogical to expect Switch to plateau in the same manner as 3DS. If you already are aware of price elasticity of demand, then for what purpose are you still being stubborn about Switch having an advantage in its room for price cuts?

2.) Do you honestly not understand the concept of sales curves? The only alternative is that you are feigning ignorance for the sole purpose of belittling Switch's performance. According to your logic, PS4 also had a similar trajectory to 3DS, but this completely ignores the actual market situation that both consoles were in at the end of their first complete fiscal years.

Also, did you completely miss the slew of negative press in the months after 3DS's release? 3DS's reputation was tarnished in the same sense that PS3's reputation was tarnished. Their sales look good in a vacuum, but neither console matched the historical performance of their respective brands. Nintendo may have cut the price to stem the bleeding, but that didn't change its overall trajectory. It just shifted the sales curve forward, which is why 3DS's first and second years were so similar in performance. How much do you think 3DS would have sold in FY3/2012 had it not received a price cut? Judging by its Q1 shipment of 0.71, it probably would have sold half as much.

Switch does not have this problem. It did not need a price cut in its first year, and it is selling better than 3DS was selling at its peak. Even if you assume a perfectly equal library (which is already absurd, given the greater development resources from combining home console and handheld divisions,) Switch will necessarily do better than 3DS because it will follow a standard console trajectory with a distinct peak.

I suppose I should also address your argument about how Switch will either plateau or decline in the following years because of how many heavy hitters have already released.

This is complete garbage, and you clearly do not understand the power of Nintendo's back catalog.

Take DS's peak year of 2008. Can you guess what fantastic new games released in that year, that propelled it to such heights? Well, the answer is: Nothing. The best-selling new DS game of 2008 was Mario and Sonic at the Olympic games, which sold 3.7 million copies. Next up was Guitar Hero: On Tour at 2.5 million. Then Pokemon Platinum at 2.3 million. Of course, Pokemon doesn't count because Diamond and Pearl were already released, and as you so often argue, new games of the same franchise don't help consoles sales. Isn't that right?

In any case, the new games of 2008 were lacking too much in both quantity and quality to explain the 29.7 million units that DS sold in 2008. What can explain DS's sales in that year is the fact that Brain Age 1/2, New Super Mario Bros, Nintendogs, and Mario Kart DS continued to be sales monsters years after release.

So, go ahead. Please explain to us why games like Super Mario Odyssey and Breath of the Wild, despite being some of the best, if not the best games in their respective franchises, are going to have far less sustained selling power than the mostly play-it-safe titles on 3DS.

1) He straight up said the 3DS's pricing was not an advantage so it didn't matter to him ... 

And it depends if Nintendo wants to do a price cut or not but I wouldn't count on it when the 3DS has a lower production cost ... 

2) How could I be belittling the Switch's performance when all I've stated is that Nintendo expects to ship a similar amount of Switch's like the 3DS did during it's full fiscal year ? 

3DS did have negative press but it was only temporary. All of it was wiped out during the holiday season ... 

While the Switch maybe selling better now, the 3DS had yet to release SM3DL, MK7 and Monster Hunter Tri in a similar point in time so despite having strength in software releases, Nintendo still expects similar performance between Switch and 3DS for it's first full fiscal year ... 

Yeah, as far as back catalog goes MK8D and Splatoon 2 are already outside of NPD top 10 plus BotW is at 9th place ... 

 

When you comparing Switch and 3DS sales you need to take in account two things, first 3DS needed huge price drop in order to start selling, and second 3DS didn't had any supply problems, while Switch had them until recently and still is supply constrained in Japan.

Last edited by Miyamotoo - on 13 November 2017

Miyamotoo on 13 November 2017
quickrick said:

switch year one will be its best, because its releasing all it's big franchises, and because excluding the wii. nintendo home consoles since the 3d era sell there best  the first year. 

This statement is wrong in every way, first Nintendo did not released all its big franchises, second Switch is not home console its a hybrid, and at end Switch will without problem surprise first year on market especially because most of first year Switch is supply constrained.

 

quickrick said: 
zorg1000 said: 

They released all their big franchises? I think you are fogetting about the 10+ million selling franchises like Pokemon, Smash Bros, 2D Mario & Animal Crossing or their 5+ million franchises like Tomodachi Life & Luigi's Mansion.

Nevermind all their 1-3 million selling games like Kirby, Metroid, Fire Emblem, Yoshi, Xenoblade, Paper Mario, Kid Icarus, Mario Party, 2D Zelda, Donkey Kong, Mario & Luigi, Pokemon Mystery Dungeon, Pikmin, Nintendogs, etc.

On top of that they have yet to bundle games, cut price or release revisions so Nintendo certainly has a shitload of things they can do to maintain momentum for the next few years.

i don't see anything touching this year for a few reasons. they released there next console and handheld, and nintendo home consoles typically sell best in there first year in the 3d era with exception being the wii. so that will give a nice boost over 3ds sales this year, then you have the highest rated zelda game since OOT, highest rated mario ever, mario kart, and splatton 2 which is a phenomena in japan, the majority of nintedo fans would have already picked up or wanna pick a switch  this year, but well see ill happily eat crow.

But you do realise that Switch most of this year (and still is Japan) was hevily suply contrained, you do realise that Switch isn't home console that is handheld in same time (hybrid), you do realise that Switch will have big system seller games in folowing years also, and you do realise that not only Nintendo fans are buying Switch and that with time more and more people that are not typical Nintendo fans will bouth Switch!?