| VideoGameAccountant said: Your argument is based on ignoring information or discounting what I've said. First, you claim that my "simple mistake" is using the "rumor" for the 2nd FY numbers. You say it as if its a random reddit or NeoGAF user. The report came from a reputable business journal from a reporter who has been correct about other aspects of Nintendo's business. But you call it a "rumor" because it doesn't fit with your argument. Nevertheless, I even said "let's ignore that," so I'm not sure how you can even call it a mistake as my response didn't even incorperate that. And even after I bring them up, you still ignore the PS4 and DS comparison. You say that the DS is too "dissimilar," because of a different launch period and had a revision. This is why I'm comparing them by fiscal year in the first place. Also, didn't the 3DS have a price cut in the same time period? Wouldn't that make them too dissimilar? Wouldn't the lack of Pilotwings and Nintendogs also make the 3DS dissimilar to the Switch. Again, it seems like it's only "dissimilar" because comparing it to the DS doesn't help your argument. But how about I kill this narrative right now. Let's actually go look at the sales of the two systems quarter by quarter 3DS
Switch
So if you compare the Switch to the 3DS, as you suggested we do, then already the Switch is tracking ahead of the 3DS. I should also note that it was in Q2 that the system received an $80 price cut, and the Switch outsold it by almost 2 million, tracking 62 percent higher. This also lines up with the software numbers (which you ignored). If we apply this to the third quarter, the 3DS sold 11.43 million. If we assume the Switch is tracking at the same amount it was in Q2, thats 18.5 million by the end of the third quarter. Now, it may not be that high, but even if we compare it to the 3DS (which you so want to do), the Switch will perform better as the system is outperforming the 3DS at the same time frame.
As an additional note, the 3DS only had a single title in the million seller category in Q2: Ocarina of Time 3D selling 1.68 million. Breath of the Wild alone sold more.
What this shows is how wrong your assessment is. You assumed the Switch was doing poorly because Nintendo projections were lower than 3DS actual. As a result, your assessment of the future is off too. You're assuming that the system will have a weak 2nd year because Nintendo released numerous strong titles this year. Nintendo still has multiple 10 million+ franchises, not on the Switch (Smash, AC, Pokemon, 2D Mario). Because the projection for the Switch is low than the 3DS actual, that these titles wouldn't do much for Switch software. However, when you look at the 3DS, you see that the system is selling better and the games are doing better. All of this points to the Switch doing far better than what you are saying.
But I'm sure you'll say the 3DS is too dissimilar and we now need to compare it to the Nintendo Gamecube.
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No, your error was thinking that Nintendo's quarterly reports shared sold numbers rather shipped numbers but there are many other things you got wrong ...
It pretty much is a rumor so far since Nintendo never confirmed it or denied it themselves ...
Actually, the Switch managed to match the 3DS in terms of game lineup quite nicely in a similar timeframe. Both had Zelda, Mario Kart and 3D Mario. The only different game between them were Nintendogs + Cats and Splatoon 2. Pilotwings ended up being irrelevant according to this site so both systems had 3/4 of the same biggest franchises at a similar point. 3DS did have a price cut but that just indicates consumers thought it had initially bad value proposition. The DS had many more differences than a revision but the demographics are also vastly different between it and the Switch so they don't even have same appeal ... (it shows since Nintendo isn't pursuing the so called 'blue ocean' strategy anymore)
Yes, the Switch is outperforming the 3DS right now in that timeframe but by the end of this fiscal year Nintendo expects both to be at par in terms of shipment ... (Nintendo still had yet to release SM3DL, MK7 and MH Tri while the Switch had already released Zelda, MK8D and Splatoon which just left SMO)
3DS had 3 STRAIGHT weeks in a row where it sold over 1M units in 2011 and 5 weeks in a row where it sold over 500K units in 2011! It's doubtful that the Switch will be able to match that peak during the holidays ...
AC:NL and NSMB2 just barely cleared 10M+ units and Smash for 3DS did not sell 10M+ units unless you want to count the WII U version too ...
As for the last line, I think you might need to get past the first stage of grief ...
