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Miyamotoo on 13 November 2017
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fatslob-:O said:
Miyamotoo said:

Its very hard to compare first PS4 FY and first Switch FY because of two reasons, first PS4 was launched during holiday season while Switch was launched in March, and second Switch most of time until now was supply constrained and still is in Japan for instance. So it will be much more accurate and more interesting to compare sales of full second year on market and based on that draw some conclusions.

Once Nintendo release 2D Mario, Animal Crossing, Pokemon, Smash Bros...they will start releasing new 3D Mario, new Zelda, new Mario Kart, new Pokemon, new IPs, some strong 3rd party exclusives...you forgetting that Switch is becoming only platform that Nintendo will support and they will not have any more deviaded resources on separate handheld and separate home console games, that automatically means much better support and much better managing of key and strong titles during evre year compared to past platforms.

Also, Switch like only Nintendo platform, will have few revisions (similar to 3DS family) that will further increase sales, so Switch platform can easily have more than 4 strong years, and actualy I think life span of "Switch family" will be quite long.

In my analysis I discounted PS4's first two quarters but even after that adjustment the PS4 still manages to come on top with ~14.8M units shipped in one of it's slower year while the Switch is only able to come close with arguably one of it's better year in terms of software releases and Switch's supply stopped being an issue for the past 3 months in every other region aside from Japan ... 

Digest the fact for a moment that the Switch was only able to come close to PS4 in it's slowest year so far with 4 of it's biggest franchises. That's not all, the scariest part is that PS4 going into it's 5th fiscal year still has a strong possibility of shipping more than it's 1st fiscal year and it may not yet be until it's 6th fiscal year that it will have the lowest amount of shipment! 

There's only so much hardware a second entry of those same franchises on the same platform can move and I doubt there'll be any strong 3rd party exclusives for the Switch when the biggest 3rd party exclusives on it's predecessor such as Monster Hunter and Yokai Watch are on a decline ... 

Its not true that Switch stopped to be supply constrained on evre market except Japan in past 3 monts, its more like past 1-2 monts for US (but even now you have some suply problems, for instance on Amazon US Mario Odyssey bundle is sold out basicly from launch), and Japan alone can make huge difference, we could have sold 3m until now instead 2m if there are not suple supply problems. Also Switch yet needs to finish its first FY on market its not like we talk about facts when it come to Switch numbers for hole FY. So fact is that it will be much more accurate and more interesting to compare sales of full second year on market and based on that draw some conclusions.

But you do realise that despite it was heavily suply constrained until recently and still it is heavily suply constrained in Japan, Switch won most of US NPD months from its launch and its selling much better in Japan, in year in which PS4 is strongest in 4 hole years on market!? Also Switch will most likely have much higher shipments on its second year on market than they will have in FY.

New Zelda, new 3D Mario, new Mario Kart, new Pokemon....potential strong 3rd party exclusives, potential stron new IPs...will of course move hardware. And revisions of hardware (for instance smaller and cheaper Switch Mini/Pocket), will gave huge boost in sales.

 

fatslob-:O said: 
StarDoor said: 

1.) I don't think I have ever seen Rol argue that 3DS getting a price cut was completely irrelevant to its sales in its first year, so I have a strong suspicion that you have severely misunderstood Rol's arguments. It's either that, or you are purposely mischaracterizing his argument. More to the point, you have already described exactly why it is illogical to expect Switch to plateau in the same manner as 3DS. If you already are aware of price elasticity of demand, then for what purpose are you still being stubborn about Switch having an advantage in its room for price cuts?

2.) Do you honestly not understand the concept of sales curves? The only alternative is that you are feigning ignorance for the sole purpose of belittling Switch's performance. According to your logic, PS4 also had a similar trajectory to 3DS, but this completely ignores the actual market situation that both consoles were in at the end of their first complete fiscal years.

Also, did you completely miss the slew of negative press in the months after 3DS's release? 3DS's reputation was tarnished in the same sense that PS3's reputation was tarnished. Their sales look good in a vacuum, but neither console matched the historical performance of their respective brands. Nintendo may have cut the price to stem the bleeding, but that didn't change its overall trajectory. It just shifted the sales curve forward, which is why 3DS's first and second years were so similar in performance. How much do you think 3DS would have sold in FY3/2012 had it not received a price cut? Judging by its Q1 shipment of 0.71, it probably would have sold half as much.

Switch does not have this problem. It did not need a price cut in its first year, and it is selling better than 3DS was selling at its peak. Even if you assume a perfectly equal library (which is already absurd, given the greater development resources from combining home console and handheld divisions,) Switch will necessarily do better than 3DS because it will follow a standard console trajectory with a distinct peak.

I suppose I should also address your argument about how Switch will either plateau or decline in the following years because of how many heavy hitters have already released.

This is complete garbage, and you clearly do not understand the power of Nintendo's back catalog.

Take DS's peak year of 2008. Can you guess what fantastic new games released in that year, that propelled it to such heights? Well, the answer is: Nothing. The best-selling new DS game of 2008 was Mario and Sonic at the Olympic games, which sold 3.7 million copies. Next up was Guitar Hero: On Tour at 2.5 million. Then Pokemon Platinum at 2.3 million. Of course, Pokemon doesn't count because Diamond and Pearl were already released, and as you so often argue, new games of the same franchise don't help consoles sales. Isn't that right?

In any case, the new games of 2008 were lacking too much in both quantity and quality to explain the 29.7 million units that DS sold in 2008. What can explain DS's sales in that year is the fact that Brain Age 1/2, New Super Mario Bros, Nintendogs, and Mario Kart DS continued to be sales monsters years after release.

So, go ahead. Please explain to us why games like Super Mario Odyssey and Breath of the Wild, despite being some of the best, if not the best games in their respective franchises, are going to have far less sustained selling power than the mostly play-it-safe titles on 3DS.

1) He straight up said the 3DS's pricing was not an advantage so it didn't matter to him ... 

And it depends if Nintendo wants to do a price cut or not but I wouldn't count on it when the 3DS has a lower production cost ... 

2) How could I be belittling the Switch's performance when all I've stated is that Nintendo expects to ship a similar amount of Switch's like the 3DS did during it's full fiscal year ? 

3DS did have negative press but it was only temporary. All of it was wiped out during the holiday season ... 

While the Switch maybe selling better now, the 3DS had yet to release SM3DL, MK7 and Monster Hunter Tri in a similar point in time so despite having strength in software releases, Nintendo still expects similar performance between Switch and 3DS for it's first full fiscal year ... 

Yeah, as far as back catalog goes MK8D and Splatoon 2 are already outside of NPD top 10 plus BotW is at 9th place ... 

 

When you comparing Switch and 3DS sales you need to take in account two things, first 3DS needed huge price drop in order to start selling, and second 3DS didn't had any supply problems, while Switch had them until recently and still is supply constrained in Japan.

Last edited by Miyamotoo - on 13 November 2017