fatslob-:O said:
VideoGameAccountant said:
First, its common knowledge (even as back as my first account in 2008) that Nintendo reports sales figures as those to customers and Sony reports shipments (you can see this as the linked reference shipments for Sony). I couldn't find specifics on Nintendo IR site. If you have a source that says otherwise, I'd like to see it. We can just go with shipments because it really doesn't matter.
On the 25-30 million number, it's coming from the WSJ. The reporter has been right about numerous other things related to Nintendo. The most obvious one was that Nintendo was making a hybrid system.
But even then, let's ignore that. Let's say Nintendo hasn't decided shipment numbers at all for FY 2018. Well, if we compare the PS4 to the Switch, they have sold about the same if Nintendo meets projections. The Switch was also supply constrained in both Japan and the US. Why couldn't it sell about what the PS4 sold in year 2? It's already selling what the PS4 did in year one (only a 6% difference if Nintendo meets projection and does not exceed them).
What is funny is you want to compare it to the 3DS and not any other system. Why not compare it to the PS4? It's also would put it close to that. Why not compare it to the DS, which saw a much stronger year 2(and shipments of 25M would make it a similar case). The 3DS was the follow up to Nintendo's best selling systems ever, so wouldn't it have a strong launch? This is what you get when you look at the two fiscal years together rather than comparing each year individually. If you on;y look at the 3DS's first full fiscal year, Switch is projected to beat it. In fact, let's look at the titles for the first full fiscal years
2012 (4/1/2011 - 3/31/2012) - https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2012/120427e.pdf
- Super Mario 3D Land - 5.84M
- Mario Kart 7 - 5.24M
- The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time 3D - 2.61M
- Pokemon Rumble Blast - 1.08M
- Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 4.42M
- Splatoon 2 - 3.61M
- The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 1.93M
- ARMS - 1.35M
With only 6 months in, Nintendo's titles are doing better on the Switch than they did on the 3DS. Mario Kart 8 will outsell Mario Kart 7. The lowest game (ARMS) is already higher than the lowest game on 3DS (Pokemon Rumble Blast). Zelda on Switch will likely beat Zelda on 3DS. This also doesn't include Super Mario Odyssey (which has already broken 2 million) and Xenoblade Chronicles X (which could sell 1 million thanks to Zelda and Skyrim creating demand for those types of games). So in the software department, the Switch is doing better.
You made the point that 3DS second year didn't see a huge increase despite Animal Crossing and NSMB. But software is already doing better on Switch, so why wouldn't we assume that these games would push the Switch more than they pushed the 3DS. If you compare 1st fiscal years for both, the Switch will likely sell more. If you look at the second, it will be night and day. But you are using the 3DS because it fits the trend you like. If you look at how software is doing on both, and what shipments are projected to be in the 2nd fiscal year, it wont be like the 3DS. You could argue it will be like the PS4. You could argue it could be like the DS. But it's already outperforming the 3DS and this is the one you want to use a base line.
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Lawlight summed it up for you nicely in the first paragraph and It's ironic that you're a "VideoGameAccountant" when you make such as basic mistake ...
Again, that figure is just a rumor and Switch supply stopped being an issue for the US in the past 3 months since you can buy a Switch at MSRP from 3 big retailers such as Amazon, Gamestop and Walmart so people such as peachbuggy are giving the Switch demand way too much credit ...
I already explained why there's a possibility the Switch might not be able to match the PS4 in it's second year in my previous post so I won't reiterate again ...
Why not compare it to the 3DS ? Their not too dissimilar in terms of launch, pricing and lineup in their lifetime so far. Comparing the Switch to the DS makes no sense when the latter had a revision released while there's no revision on the horizon for the former, both have very different sets of titles in their first year and they didn't even launch in the same period either ...
Switch selling more software does not necessarily mean that the Switch itself will sell more as indicated by Nintendo's expected forecast so while Nintendo's games are breaking records, their hardware isn't ...
Really not hard to see the relationship between the Switch and 3DS when you look at the launch, games and most importantly forecast ...
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Your argument is based on ignoring information or discounting what I've said.
First, you claim that my "simple mistake" is using the "rumor" for the 2nd FY numbers. You say it as if its a random reddit or NeoGAF user. The report came from a reputable business journal from a reporter who has been correct about other aspects of Nintendo's business. But you call it a "rumor" because it doesn't fit with your argument. Nevertheless, I even said "let's ignore that," so I'm not sure how you can even call it a mistake as my response didn't even incorperate that.
And even after I bring them up, you still ignore the PS4 and DS comparison. You say that the DS is too "dissimilar," because of a different launch period and had a revision. This is why I'm comparing them by fiscal year in the first place. Also, didn't the 3DS have a price cut in the same time period? Wouldn't that make them too dissimilar? Wouldn't the lack of Pilotwings and Nintendogs also make the 3DS dissimilar to the Switch. Again, it seems like it's only "dissimilar" because comparing it to the DS doesn't help your argument.
But how about I kill this narrative right now. Let's actually go look at the sales of the two systems quarter by quarter
3DS
Switch
So if you compare the Switch to the 3DS, as you suggested we do, then already the Switch is tracking ahead of the 3DS. I should also note that it was in Q2 that the system received an $80 price cut, and the Switch outsold it by almost 2 million, tracking 62 percent higher. This also lines up with the software numbers (which you ignored). If we apply this to the third quarter, the 3DS sold 11.43 million. If we assume the Switch is tracking at the same amount it was in Q2, thats 18.5 million by the end of the third quarter. Now, it may not be that high, but even if we compare it to the 3DS (which you so want to do), the Switch will perform better as the system is outperforming the 3DS at the same time frame.
As an additional note, the 3DS only had a single title in the million seller category in Q2: Ocarina of Time 3D selling 1.68 million. Breath of the Wild alone sold more.
What this shows is how wrong your assessment is. You assumed the Switch was doing poorly because Nintendo projections were lower than 3DS actual. As a result, your assessment of the future is off too. You're assuming that the system will have a weak 2nd year because Nintendo released numerous strong titles this year. Nintendo still has multiple 10 million+ franchises, not on the Switch (Smash, AC, Pokemon, 2D Mario). Because the projection for the Switch is low than the 3DS actual, that these titles wouldn't do much for Switch software. However, when you look at the 3DS, you see that the system is selling better and the games are doing better. All of this points to the Switch doing far better than what you are saying.
But I'm sure you'll say the 3DS is too dissimilar and we now need to compare it to the Nintendo Gamecube.
