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Forums - Sales Discussion - PS4 VS Switch lifetime sales, which console will sell the most?

 

What do you expect?

NSW will win by a huge margin 53 16.06%
 
NSW will win by a small margin 75 22.73%
 
PS4 will win by a small margin 75 22.73%
 
PS4 will win by a huge margin 117 35.45%
 
Sorry, no troll XB1 option. :P Oh wait... 10 3.03%
 
Total:330
Miyamotoo on 12 November 2017
ryuzaki57 said:
Look at the facts : PS4 has a considerably larger and more varied library than Switch, with most 3rd parties considering PS4 audience as their priority target. How can Switch get even close to PS4 userbase in that situation? At best, Switch will attract most Nintendo fans, part of casual gamers who aren't playing mobile and part of the Vita crowd. Without major 3rd party exclusives, Switch sales may even slow down in 2018.

But same could be said for PS3 compared to Wii, and Wii ended up selling more than PS3/Xbox360. And now Switch is in quite difrent situation compared to Wii, Switch aiming handheld and home market in same time, also Switch has modern tech/architecture and much lower power gap compared to competition than Wii had, and those are things that will effect that Switch will have better 3rd party support than Wii had. Switch is selling great because of great Nintendo games and console itself (hybrid), not because 3rd party exclusives, so I dont get how sales could slow down in 2018. if Switch dont get major 3rd party exclusives.

 

Lawlight said:
Also, the OP is wrong. They plan on producting 25-30M, not ship. There was another rumour that said that they will produce 20M Switches this FY. Doesn't mean they will ship 20M Switches.

This 25-30m info is latest info based on latest Switch results, while that rumour of 20m is months old.

 

 

fatslob-:O said:

Easily PS4 ...

If we take a look at their first calendar year of shipments (Which means that we're going so far as to exclude PS4's first quarter!) the Switch already can't match the PS4 with the former expected to ship ~14.5M units at the end of this year while the latter shipped ~15.5M units in it's first full calendar year ...

What's more is Nintendo is only expecting the Switch to be upto par with 3DS in terms of shipments in similar timeframes and especially in a similar period where PS4 arguably had less incentives to be purchased in comparison to the Switch when most of it's AAA games were cross-gen titles where the said games already had abundant access to existing userbases ...

Once Nintendo releases the rest of their flagship franchises such as 2D Mario, Animal Crossing, Pokemon and Smash Bros it will become substantially harder to move hardware ...

I cannot envision a scenario where Switch will be able to have more than 4 strong years of hardware sales without the use of new IPs or the growth of existing IPs like we saw with the DS while in PS4's 5th calendar year in which there's a possibility where it could ship about 85% of what it did this year and the in it's 6th calendar year it could still have a relatively strong showing ...

In spite of the fact that the Switch has had stronger releases than it's predecessor, it is only expected to match it's predecessor first fiscal year in the given similar timeframes, probably still can't match the PS4 in it's first year and then there's a high chance that hardware revisions won't be as plentiful for the Switch in comparison to it's predecessors ...

Nevermind the idea of Switch beating the PS4, it has to first show that it can at least match it!

Its very hard to compare first PS4 FY and first Switch FY because of two reasons, first PS4 was launched during holiday season while Switch was launched in March, and second Switch most of time until now was supply constrained and still is in Japan for instance. So it will be much more accurate and more interesting to compare sales of full second year on market and based on that draw some conclusions.

Once Nintendo release 2D Mario, Animal Crossing, Pokemon, Smash Bros...they will start releasing new 3D Mario, new Zelda, new Mario Kart, new Pokemon, new IPs, some strong 3rd party exclusives...you forgetting that Switch is becoming only platform that Nintendo will support and they will not have any more deviaded resources on separate handheld and separate home console games, that automatically means much better support and much better managing of key and strong titles during evre year compared to past platforms.

Also, Switch like only Nintendo platform, will have few revisions (similar to 3DS family) that will further increase sales, so Switch platform can easily have more than 4 strong years, and actualy I think life span of "Switch family" will be quite long.



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Barkley on 12 November 2017

PS4 of course. Switch is going to do very well, but not 100m+ well. Assuming the switch follows a traditional generation route and not incremental upgrades.



Miyamotoo on 12 November 2017
Kyuu said:
Miyamotoo said:

Its very hard to compare first PS4 FY and first Switch FY because of two reasons, first PS4 was launched during holiday season while Switch was launched in March, and second Switch most of time until now was supply constrained and still is in Japan for instance. So it will be much more accurate and more interesting to compare sales of full second year on market and based on that draw some conclusions.

Once Nintendo release 2D Mario, Animal Crossing, Pokemon, Smash Bros...they will start releasing new 3D Mario, new Zelda, new Mario Kart, new Pokemon, new IPs, some strong 3rd party exclusives...you forgetting that Switch is becoming only platform that Nintendo will support and they will not have any more deviaded resources on separate handheld and separate home console games, that automatically means much better support and much better managing of key and strong titles during evre year compared to past platforms.

Also, Switch like only Nintendo platform, will have few revisions (similar to 3DS family) that will further increase sales, so Switch platform can easily have more than 4 strong years, and actualy I think life span of "Switch family" will be quite long.

If the original Switch is abandoned at some point, then its sales should be separated from the succeeding revision that remains supported.

For instance.. we currently are combining X1X sales with X1 (like we should). But we won't continue to combine them if by the time Xbox 4 (X1X-2?) comes out, the original X1 is abandoned while X1X starts to function as a temporary low-end "9th gen" system until Xbox 5 (X1X-3?) is launched.

Nintendo's approach is anyone's guess, but I think I know what Microsoft is trying to do. And it's nothing akin to how Sony is handling the Pro.

I don't think we can separate PS4 Pro sales from base PS4, all New 3DS XL sales from first 3DS. Posible Switch Mini/Pocket, Switch XL/Pro, Switch Home only...will be part of Switch family also.

Its almost certain that Switch like hybrid device will have more different versions, similar like 3DS, but because hybrid nature of Switch, Switch have even more possibilities for different versions. Also, different addons are very possible, VR/AR addon for Switch, different control addons...

 

Barkley said:

PS4 of course. Switch is going to do very well, but not 100m+ well. Assuming the switch follows a traditional generation route and not incremental upgrades.

There is nothing traditional about Switch, and Switch will definitely have multiple revisions probably including upgraded version.



Barkley on 12 November 2017
Miyamotoo said: 
Barkley said:

PS4 of course. Switch is going to do very well, but not 100m+ well. Assuming the switch follows a traditional generation route and not incremental upgrades.

There is nothing traditional about Switch, and Switch will definitely have multiple revisions probably including upgraded version.

Well if Switch does follow a model similair to phones, (an upgraded version every 2-3 years? No real cutoff point for the "Switch".) Then any comparison of sales other than launch aligned is pointless, as are any predictions in this thread.



Miyamotoo on 12 November 2017
Barkley said:
Miyamotoo said: 

There is nothing traditional about Switch, and Switch will definitely have multiple revisions probably including upgraded version.

Well if Switch does follow a model similair to phones, (an upgraded version every 2-3 years? No real cutoff point for the "Switch".) Then any comparison of sales other than launch aligned is pointless, as are any predictions in this thread.

Not every 2-3 years, but at least one upgrade, possible Switch Mini/Pocket also, Switch Pro/XL...are we separating PS4 Pro sales from PS4 base sales, or are we separating sales of Xbox X from S, of course not, they all play same games and they are all same platforms.



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Green098 on 12 November 2017
NawaiNey said:
This will likely be the best year for Switch, it's best and biggest games have already released and it's all downhill from here, so I think Switch will be lucky to pass N64 numbers let alone compete with PS4 in the long run.

Sarcasm...? at least for your sake I hope so. 



Barkley on 12 November 2017
Miyamotoo said:
Barkley said:

Well if Switch does follow a model similair to phones, (an upgraded version every 2-3 years? No real cutoff point for the "Switch".) Then any comparison of sales other than launch aligned is pointless, as are any predictions in this thread.

Not every 2-3 years, but at least one upgrade, possible Switch Mini/Pocket also, Switch Pro/XL...are we separating PS4 Pro sales from PS4 base sales, or are we separating sales of Xbox X from S, of course not, they all play same games and they are all same platforms.

Oh well that's fine, a PS4 Pro esque upgrade isn't what I had in mind, as that's not a replacement nor a device aimed at the mainstream. Neither was I thinking about Slim or XL revisions. I was more thinking about a device that essentially replaces the previous, has mainstream appeal, is the main focus of Nintendo's marketing and is more substantial in it's benefits then New 3DS.



Turkish on 12 November 2017

PS4: 110-120M
Switch: 90-100M (25 to 30M will come from Japan alone)
Xbone: 55M



Bofferbrauer2 on 12 November 2017
fatslob-:O said:

Easily PS4 ...

If we take a look at their first calendar year of shipments (Which means that we're going so far as to exclude PS4's first quarter!) the Switch already can't match the PS4 with the former expected to ship ~14.5M units at the end of this year while the latter shipped ~15.5M units in it's first full calendar year ...

What's more is Nintendo is only expecting the Switch to be upto par with 3DS in terms of shipments in similar timeframes and especially in a similar period where PS4 arguably had less incentives to be purchased in comparison to the Switch when most of it's AAA games were cross-gen titles where the said games already had abundant access to existing userbases ...

Once Nintendo releases the rest of their flagship franchises such as 2D Mario, Animal Crossing, Pokemon and Smash Bros it will become substantially harder to move hardware ...

I cannot envision a scenario where Switch will be able to have more than 4 strong years of hardware sales without the use of new IPs or the growth of existing IPs like we saw with the DS while in PS4's 5th calendar year in which there's a possibility where it could ship about 85% of what it did this year and the in it's 6th calendar year it could still have a relatively strong showing ...

In spite of the fact that the Switch has had stronger releases than it's predecessor, it is only expected to match it's predecessor first fiscal year in the given similar timeframes, probably still can't match the PS4 in it's first year and then there's a high chance that hardware revisions won't be as plentiful for the Switch in comparison to it's predecessors ...

Nevermind the idea of Switch beating the PS4, it has to first show that it can at least match it!

It's already matching the PS4, week for week in the Launch-aligned sales. The PS4 build up a lead due to having had a holiday season while the Switch didn't just yet. The PS4 had it's biggest advantage against the Switch at week 20, with a 2.1 Million lead, but that one has dropped during summer to 1.8 already in Week 29 and with the incoming holiday season, it will surpass the PS4 until the latter has it's second holiday season

And despite this being the PS4s best year to date, The Switch still steals it's show in the US and in Japan, with just Europe keeping the PS4 ahead of the Switch. So I really don't see where you ge that Switch has to match the PS4 first, as it's already doing so on all levels



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JRPGfan on 12 November 2017

If Nintendo does a price drop to 250$ early next year (they can sell it at break even prices), and theres a even cheaper (199$) docked only version. Then lateron with Switch XL ect..... yeah I could see Nintendo doing 100m+ with the switch.

Its still really early though...its hard to say, in 2019 we should have a much better "idea" of where things end up though.

Last edited by JRPGfan - on 12 November 2017