Miyamoto, that 20M figure was for this fiscal year. The 25-30M is for the next. It’s not the same number that was revised.

They'll sell around the same amount 80-85m or so for both.

There is no any reason to Nintendo do price drop to $250 early next year, so that's highly unlikely.

Also, remember when you were saying that Switch will have price cut for this holiday season or at least Zelda or Mario Odyssey bundle for $300, and I and few others were saying to you that is not happening? :)

The PS4 is forecast to sell 79M by March 2018...

It is still too early to tell but I've said from the beginning that the Switch has the potential to match DS sales and thus outsell the PS4 lifetime. Things will depend on so many factors (when will the successors release? Will one company make a big mistake? Is Nintendo going to go back to their Wii U habits when it comes to game-design? What will the macro-economic conditions look like in a few years?) but the potential to be the market leader is there for both companies. I wouldn't focus too much on LTD sales at this point and look at 2018 instead which could turn into a fierce battle for the number one spot. We now have two equally strong competitors with very different philosophies. It's going to be way more interesting than the last few years.

Yes, I wouldn't be surprised. 6 years for Wii, 5 years for Wii U... Seems to be Nintendo's range for their main platforms.

Oh, then you simply got the wrong message out of it: I'm not saying it's impossible, I'm pointing out that if sales were in the Switch's favor for the rest of the generation, it'd take massive margins to close the distance before 8th Gen is over and companies start pushing out new systems. Then there's the fact that Sony is simply more likely to support their system longer than Nintendo will.

Will Sony always have the advantage week to week? No. Will the Switch be able to consistently generate large enough numbers to over take PS4 before a hypothetical Switch 2 releases? Very unlikely.

First, its common knowledge (even as back as my first account in 2008) that Nintendo reports sales figures as those to customers and Sony reports shipments (you can see this as the linked reference shipments for Sony). I couldn't find specifics on Nintendo IR site. If you have a source that says otherwise, I'd like to see it. We can just go with shipments because it really doesn't matter.

On the 25-30 million number, it's coming from the WSJ. The reporter has been right about numerous other things related to Nintendo. The most obvious one was that Nintendo was making a hybrid system. 

But even then, let's ignore that. Let's say Nintendo hasn't decided shipment numbers at all for FY 2018. Well, if we compare the PS4 to the Switch, they have sold about the same if Nintendo meets projections. The Switch was also supply constrained in both Japan and the US. Why couldn't it sell about what the PS4 sold in year 2? It's already selling what the PS4 did in year one (only a 6% difference if Nintendo meets projection and does not exceed them). 

What is funny is you want to compare it to the 3DS and not any other system. Why not compare it to the PS4? It's also would put it close to that. Why not compare it to the DS, which saw a much stronger year 2(and shipments of 25M would make it a similar case). The 3DS was the follow up to Nintendo's best selling systems ever, so wouldn't it have a strong launch? This is what you get when you look at the two fiscal years together rather than comparing each year individually. If you on;y look at the 3DS's first full fiscal year, Switch is projected to beat it. In fact, let's look at the titles for the first full fiscal years

2012 (4/1/2011 - 3/31/2012) - https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2012/120427e.pdf

• Super Mario 3D Land - 5.84M
• Mario Kart 7 - 5.24M
• The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time 3D - 2.61M
• Pokemon Rumble Blast - 1.08M

You have this knack of generalizing. And always talking like everyone has some sort of anti nintendo agenda.

I think what I said is clear.... less than a year into the launch of any new hardware is too short a time to be making generation defining predictions as fact. Its ok to make a prediction and no one will argue with that. But its foolhardy to state said prediction like its a fact or to talk like you have some sort of inside knowledge on what everyone else thinks. 

Take note, I am not one of those that feel the switch will not sell well... I won't be surprised if it even outsells the PS4 at the end of its lifetime. Makes no difference to me to be honest.

Lets just end this here.... and agree to disagree as always.

PS4 will be the winner of Generation 8. Switch will be the winner of Generation 9. How will each do? PS4 will do quite well and finish in that table's S rank. Switch is another story altogether.

Switch will amaze people starting in 2019. 2018 will be a disappointing year for Switch, and Nintendo will have a fair amount of supply sitting on the shelves in most of the world. Roughly the time that Pokemon is released Switch consoles are going to start flying off the shelves. People will even say that Pokemon single-handedly saved the Switch, but the truth is that a bunch of Japanese 3rd party games will also be released around the same time. Sometime in 2019 Nintendo will run out of stock in their major territories. In 2020 and later years they are going to sell record numbers. The Switch will become this cultural phenomenon like people have never seen before.

In short this table will have to create a new SSS rank just for the Switch. It is going to get all of the people who would normally be in the handheld market plus a huge chunk of the home console market. It will be a console like no other.

o.................................k

Only thing I agree with is the bolded part. 

And that actually is something iteresting. The PS4 and NS aren't even in the same generation of consoles. So yes, the PS4 will win gen 8, nintendos gen 8 console was the wiiU.  The NS I believe will win gen 9, when its gen 9 counterparts the PS5 and XB2 comes along. 

Now the funny thing about all this is this; the NS stands to sell better than any home console. If and only if it sells like a hybrid that it is. So based on that it will outsell the PS4 at the end of the day but lose gen 8. Win gen 9 by default because by the time the PS6 is released I strongly doubt the PS5 would have sold as much as the NS. Unless for some reason MS pulls out of the home console space.