PS4 VS Switch lifetime sales, which console will sell the most?

[VideoGameAccountant]

fatslob-:O said:

VideoGameAccountant said:

Your analysis is a bit off.

First, let's compare by fiscal year since we have official numbers for that (and the Switch launched in March so calendar year is a bad comparison anyway). In the PS4's first full fiscal year (3/31/14 - 3/31/15) Sony shipped 14.8 million PS4s. If Nintendo meets their projections, they will sell 14 million units. Nintendo reports sale through, so the 800K difference can be mostly attributed to global retail inventory. (https://www.gamespot.com/articles/ps4-ships-22-3-million-units-worldwide/1100-6427007/)

In the second full fiscal year, Sony shipped 17.7 million PS4s. According to the WSJ (which has been credible in the past), Nintendo is expecting to manufacture 25-30 million Switch systems for its second full fiscal year. This puts it well ahead of the PS4. Moreover, if it matched Sony's sales in the first full fiscal year, why would it not happen in the next, especially as there will be more games next year. (https://www.dualshockers.com/sony-sells-17-7-million-ps4-units-in-fiscal-year-2015/)

Whether Nintendo can meet the 14 million projection has yet to be seen, but it's likely as the system has taken off in Japan and is top in US 5 out of the 7 months since its release. Nevertheless, your numbers appear a bit off. 

It really isn't ... 

All of Nintendo's numbers in quarterly reports are SHIPMENTS ... (even when we're comparing on a fiscal year basis, PS4 is still going to ship more than the Switch according to Nintendo) 

You don't need WSJ to tell how many consoles were shipped during the fiscal year, we can get the figures from the console manufacturers themselves in their quarterly reports. The 25-30M figure is just a rumor and nothing more when Digitimes reported a rumor that Nintendo expected the Switch to ship 20M units for this fiscal year but they were off by 6M units when Nintendo only raised their forecast by 4M units totaling to 14M units for this fiscal year ... 

Actually, there might be precedent to show why the Switch may not match PS4 in it's second year and it doesn't matter how many games are releasing for a system but what are the relevant games. When all is said and done for this fiscal year Nintendo is expecting to ship a total of 16.74M units for the Switch and in comparison to the 3DS which released in a similar timeframe to the Switch had shipments totaling 17.13M units for the end of it's first fiscal year ... 

Nintendo is expecting to ship 14M units for this fiscal year on the backbone of Zelda, MK8:D, Splatoon 2 and SMO. For comparison the 3DS shipped roughly ~13.5M units in it's first fiscal year with games such as Nintendogs + Cats, Zelda, SM3DL and MK7 yet coincidentally they'll both have similar shipment totals ... 

We don't know what Switch's titles are going to be next year but 3DS in 2012 released with blockbusters such as NSMB2 and AC:NL was only able to increase shipment by ~400K units for the following fiscal year which amounted to ~13.9M units for the second fiscal year so if the release schedule on the Switch is anything like the 3DS was in 2012, there's not much chance for the Switch to keep up with the PS4 or let alone match it when it is already not doing so ... 

My numbers are not off but I do admit to using a different methodology such as using calendar years ... 

First, its common knowledge (even as back as my first account in 2008) that Nintendo reports sales figures as those to customers and Sony reports shipments (you can see this as the linked reference shipments for Sony). I couldn't find specifics on Nintendo IR site. If you have a source that says otherwise, I'd like to see it. We can just go with shipments because it really doesn't matter.

On the 25-30 million number, it's coming from the WSJ. The reporter has been right about numerous other things related to Nintendo. The most obvious one was that Nintendo was making a hybrid system. 

But even then, let's ignore that. Let's say Nintendo hasn't decided shipment numbers at all for FY 2018. Well, if we compare the PS4 to the Switch, they have sold about the same if Nintendo meets projections. The Switch was also supply constrained in both Japan and the US. Why couldn't it sell about what the PS4 sold in year 2? It's already selling what the PS4 did in year one (only a 6% difference if Nintendo meets projection and does not exceed them). 

What is funny is you want to compare it to the 3DS and not any other system. Why not compare it to the PS4? It's also would put it close to that. Why not compare it to the DS, which saw a much stronger year 2(and shipments of 25M would make it a similar case). The 3DS was the follow up to Nintendo's best selling systems ever, so wouldn't it have a strong launch? This is what you get when you look at the two fiscal years together rather than comparing each year individually. If you on;y look at the 3DS's first full fiscal year, Switch is projected to beat it. In fact, let's look at the titles for the first full fiscal years

2012 (4/1/2011 - 3/31/2012) - https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2012/120427e.pdf

 

• Super Mario 3D Land - 5.84M
• Mario Kart 7 - 5.24M
• The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time 3D - 2.61M
• Pokemon Rumble Blast - 1.08M

2017 (4/1/2017 - 9/30/2017) - https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2017/171030_4e.pdf

• Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 4.42M
• Splatoon 2 - 3.61M
• The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 1.93M
• ARMS - 1.35M

With only 6 months in, Nintendo's titles are doing better on the Switch than they did on the 3DS. Mario Kart 8 will outsell Mario Kart 7. The lowest game (ARMS) is already higher than the lowest game on 3DS (Pokemon Rumble Blast). Zelda on Switch will likely beat Zelda on 3DS. This also doesn't include Super Mario Odyssey (which has already broken 2 million) and Xenoblade Chronicles X (which could sell 1 million thanks to Zelda and Skyrim creating demand for those types of games). So in the software department, the Switch is doing better. 

You made the point that 3DS second year didn't see a huge increase despite Animal Crossing and NSMB. But software is already doing better on Switch, so why wouldn't we assume that these games would push the Switch more than they pushed the 3DS. If you compare 1st fiscal years for both, the Switch will likely sell more. If you look at the second, it will be night and day. But you are using the 3DS because it fits the trend you like. If you look at how software is doing on both, and what shipments are projected to be in the 2nd fiscal year, it wont be like the 3DS. You could argue it will be like the PS4. You could argue it could be like the DS. But it's already outperforming the 3DS and this is the one you want to use a base line.