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Of the options in the poll, PS4 winning by a small margin (under 15 million counts as a small margin in my head) currently seems the most likely.

I don't think the Switch will be able to match the longevity the PS4 has demonstrated. It'll sell faster than the PS4 in its first three years, but its decline after that will be faster. In the end, both systems will end up above 100 million, with the PS4 probably ending up around 120, and the Switch ending up between 105 and 120.