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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Failed Switch predictions of analysts

Baddman on 26 July 2017
Wyrdness said:
Barkley said:

Many Nintendo fans would disagree with you.

Rolstoppable

"So sad... curl-6 won't return to the herd with news like this. Worse, I might consider to join him. Nintendo has games, but they wreck everything with hardware prices and paywalls. They should have taken a better look at what they themselves have done in the past instead of following Sony and Microsoft.


Yeah, sure, I am certainly not ruling out that I'll get a Switch, because paying €50 more than expected for the console plus the lack of online multiplayer aren't that severe, but it's so meh, so disappointing."

cycycychris

"Wow, that conference was... pretty bad. Where are the games? We have gotten very few games the last 2 years, and they only show a few first party titles. They do know that one of the Wii U issues was they they refused to announce like any games before launch. Plus, why are they showinga bunch of 3rd party games that don't even have a piece of footage... I mean come on.


Then the online, like fuck you for making it paid. But to then not even go into detail about like why its paid, what your adding to it and such is so stupid. They just made it look like hey, we figured out the others are making a lot on this, so we will too."

Superchunk

"Boring. WTF. Let's spend 50 mins showing hardware and talking to devs. Provide literally 3 launch titles and tell people how excited this will be."

Einsam_Delphin

"Welp, I was right to not be excited. Probably getting a PS4 this year."

Guiduc

"Love the games, love the console, love the concept, hated the conference."

Platina

"Overall pretty bad presentation, but with my expectations really low, I wasn't disappointed 5.5/10"

Basil Zero

"Conference overall was bad but the announcements in the 2nd half was good."

 

If that's how Nintendo fans were reacting after the presentation, it's expected people who aren't would react even worse and make negative predictions, especially straight on the back of the WiiU.

Many people on social media were fine with the presentation and seeing the sales of NS since launch it's pretty clear that those who weren't the usual mob online had no issue with the presentation either as if it was that bad it wouldn't have sold as well.

yup Never take people on gaming sites serious when it comes to sales predictions. After the presentation plenty of folks on social media were hyped about the switch. And I'm talking about what some would consider dude bro gamers  who only play shooters and yearly sports titles.



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Cloudman on 26 July 2017

Admittedly, I did and still have some doubts for the system (mostly it needs a stronger line up of games and support) but it's good to see it's already breaking some predictions. The Switch will continue to be well off for the year. It's just next year that I'm a lil concerned for.



 

              

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StuOhQ on 26 July 2017

Good times. These are definitely great for a laugh.



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Mnementh on 26 July 2017
maxleresistant said:
Mnementh said:

As I said: WiiU shipped less than Switch. I don't know why you point out the obvious: Nintendo have increased stocks for Switch compared to WiiU.

The WiiU sold more than 3 millions in its first month.

The Switch sold 2 millions.

How exactly is it possible that the Switch was more stocked at launch that the WiiU was. What kind of math do you use exactly?

The WiiU released in November. It shipped less than 2 million in November. Switch shipped 2.7 million in march. If you include December for WiiU, it may have shipped 3 million. But in one and a half month and not one.

Also not sold. After a month the WiiU was at less than 2 million sold.

http://www.vgchartz.com/weekly/41266/Global/

Even after a month and a half (after December which was also the holidays) it was at 2.3 million sold:

http://www.vgchartz.com/weekly/41280/Global/

The Switch was after less than a month which wasn't the holidays at 2.4 million sold:

http://www.vgchartz.com/weekly/42827/Global/

Maybe you like the first two months of shipments for WiiU better (November+December). It was something around 3 million. I don_'t know April shipments of Switch, as Nintendo tells that numbers quarterly, but Switch was at 3.5 million sold end of april, so it must have shipped at least this number:

http://www.vgchartz.com/weekly/42855/Global/

So, either way you look at it - Switch had more units shipped and more units sold in the same timeframe as WiiU.



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Barkley on 26 July 2017
RolStoppable said:
Barkley said:

A few days before the presentation was the leak of the clock speeds, learning the Switch was only going to be 393 GFlops docked. Massive negativity surrounding that one, this built into the negative perception of the presentation. Rumours were the Switch would launch at a low price of $249 at that time.

The presentation came, $299 not the rumoured $249, Paid Online was announced, we learned Mario Kart 8 wasn't a launch title and the Switch was launching with practically nothing, and they spent a ton of time showing our lord and saviour 1-2-Switch.

It was a dreadful presentation. You've just forgotten how bad it was.

Even Rol was defeated by it.

You can give people a pass for posts straight after the presentation because the internet is very reactionary and focused on negatives, but everyone had a fair chance to reassess everything concerning Switch between the presentation and its launch date. That's a window of almost two months with plenty of discussions to sway people's minds.

-snippy snip-

But if you mention my initial reaction, you also have to mention the thread I made afterwards during the same weekend. 

Sure but I was only referring to the threads Wyrdness was posting, and only the OP's at that which were posted closer to the presentation then your thread, I didn't look at later posts in the threads I quoted. So if Wyrdness was referring to later posts in that thread that's my mistake.

Though likely why opinion was not changed until post-launch is people just didn't bother to think about it, there was the presentation and then nothing till launch, except for those who were really willing to dig into details and pay close attention. For many they watched the presentation, and then there was nothing to prompt them to rethink until the success of Zelda.



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foodfather on 26 July 2017

But there were plenty of reasonable explorations for the Switch to not do so well, and very little in terms of it exceeding expectations let alone do well.

I supposed Splatoon showed anything can be a break out success if there is an audience for it.



Flilix on 26 July 2017
Wyrdness said:
Barkley said:

Many Nintendo fans would disagree with you.

Rolstoppable

"So sad... curl-6 won't return to the herd with news like this. Worse, I might consider to join him. Nintendo has games, but they wreck everything with hardware prices and paywalls. They should have taken a better look at what they themselves have done in the past instead of following Sony and Microsoft.


Yeah, sure, I am certainly not ruling out that I'll get a Switch, because paying €50 more than expected for the console plus the lack of online multiplayer aren't that severe, but it's so meh, so disappointing."

cycycychris

"Wow, that conference was... pretty bad. Where are the games? We have gotten very few games the last 2 years, and they only show a few first party titles. They do know that one of the Wii U issues was they they refused to announce like any games before launch. Plus, why are they showinga bunch of 3rd party games that don't even have a piece of footage... I mean come on.


Then the online, like fuck you for making it paid. But to then not even go into detail about like why its paid, what your adding to it and such is so stupid. They just made it look like hey, we figured out the others are making a lot on this, so we will too."

Superchunk

"Boring. WTF. Let's spend 50 mins showing hardware and talking to devs. Provide literally 3 launch titles and tell people how excited this will be."

Einsam_Delphin

"Welp, I was right to not be excited. Probably getting a PS4 this year."

Guiduc

"Love the games, love the console, love the concept, hated the conference."

Platina

"Overall pretty bad presentation, but with my expectations really low, I wasn't disappointed 5.5/10"

Basil Zero

"Conference overall was bad but the announcements in the 2nd half was good."

 

If that's how Nintendo fans were reacting after the presentation, it's expected people who aren't would react even worse and make negative predictions, especially straight on the back of the WiiU.

Many people on social media were fine with the presentation and seeing the sales of NS since launch it's pretty clear that those who weren't the usual mob online had no issue with the presentation either as if it was that bad it wouldn't have sold as well.

Yeah, I remember that very clearly. A lot of people on Youtube were exited, but here on VGChartz almost everyone was very negative.

I guess it has something to do with group psychology, people on this site were disappointed by the presentation because everyone here was talking about the bad things.



bonzobanana on 26 July 2017
Green098 said:
maxleresistant said:

The WiiU sold more than 3 millions in its first month.

The Switch sold 2 millions.

How exactly is it possible that the Switch was more stocked at launch that the WiiU was. What kind of math do you use exactly?

Hahahaha I'm sorry it's just seeing those words next to those numbers cracked me up, I mean if Wii U had demand like that to sell that well in it's first month we would likely not need the Switch today. It took till June 2013 until the Wii U sold 3 million, that's almost 6 months not first month.

Here are the facts your looking for, Wii U shipped 3.06 million by December 31st 2012, so 1 month and half since release.

Switch shipped 2.76 million by March 31st 2017, so a little under a month since release.

It's pretty close though and my reckoning was that something like 6 million Switch's will be sold to their core audience but we have yet to reach that figure because of stock shortages and will the Switch sales level continue at a high level when it has satisified its core audience or will it go on to a wider audience. I'm not a fan of the mk1 Switch I have to say I feel the bulk of Switch sales will be a smaller revised version. I feel the Switch will do very good numbers just not this early version which I feel is more like a Nintendo DS compared to a DS lite. I'm not saying the current Switch will sell poorly but I think sales will be much greater when the Switch is smaller and more portable and at a lower price point. 



Ganoncrotch on 26 July 2017
Barkley said:
Wyrdness said:

The presentation was fine it was not flash but it was not poor either.

A few days before the presentation was the leak of the clock speeds, learning the Switch was only going to be 393 GFlops docked. Massive negativity surrounding that one, this built into the negative perception of the presentation. Rumours were the Switch would launch at a low price of $249 at that time.

The presentation came, $299 not the rumoured $249, Paid Online was announced, we learned Mario Kart 8 wasn't a launch title and the Switch was launching with practically nothing, and they spent a ton of time showing our lord and saviour 1-2-Switch.

It was a dreadful presentation. You've just forgotten how bad it was.

Even Rol was defeated by it.

If you think your average gamer on the street gives a rats ass about how many Gflops the machine has you are in the same boat as the people who thought a E3 conference for the XBX would be best started off by talking about Memory bandwidth...

The average gamer who goes to game stop and hands over their cash doesn't know what a GFlop is, they just know what games are and what they hear about on youtube etc. even going back 2 generations, the Wii was a Gamecube 1.5 in terms of specs, still outsold the still impressively powerful PS3 by a clean 20million consoles, Power isn't what gamers go for... enthusiasts on the internet do enjoy their power and list wars... but Enthusiasts are not the people who fund the gaming industry... not even a little bit.



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Zkuq on 26 July 2017
Wyrdness said:
Zkuq said:
Uh, there were very good reasons to be skeptical about Switch's success. It's easy to dismiss those predictions as horrible, but what isn't in hindsight? Also, long-term success is still unsure, as good as things are looking right now.

Problem with arguing that is the case of people saying it'll sell less than the Wii U when the NS is replacing 2 platforms one of which is in a market where Nintendo has no direct competitor any more leaving them with a monopoly. These are people arguning long term success would be less than Wii U and the way things are now NS is almost half way to selling the total Wii U sold in just 5 months.

I haven't seen pretty much anyone predict Switch is going to sell less than Wii U, so I don't know who you're referring to.

Miyamotoo said:
Zkuq said:
Uh, there were very good reasons to be skeptical about Switch's success. It's easy to dismiss those predictions as horrible, but what isn't in hindsight? Also, long-term success is still unsure, as good as things are looking right now.

Like? 

Switch has great concept that aims handheld and home console market in same time, and had huge system seller game like Zelda BotW followed by MK8D, it was quite obvious that want be fail. But some people passed that and still were negative about Switch, but that mostly comes from Wii U faile.

High price, not very powerful, somewhat disappointing exclusives in the opinions of some, potentially difficult target audience, and being a bit gimmicky which is always somewhat risky.