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Forums - Sony Discussion - Did Sony make a mistake by be first to release an upgraded console.

Intrinsic on 09 April 2017
KBG29 said:

I think people only look at the launch PS4 numbers and have not looked at recent numbers on the slim. The Slim uses significantly less power than the day one model, and even the 1200 model had a decent size reduction in power use, without a shrink in the APU. Actually PS4 Slim only draws a maximum of 86 Watts in the most load heavy situation, with the front end at 47W and 4 player split screen on Rocket League taking 63W. 

There are already rumors of an even slimmer PS4, and it would make sense that this would have an even lower power draw than the current slim. As times goes on, everything in the system shrinks, and in some cases, things can be eliminated, and their operation can be picked up by other components at a cheaper cost powerwise and monetarly.

It is very possible for Sony to rework that PS4 into a portable if they want to. They can customize the components to reach the power levels they need. It would definitly be harder right now, but they could always be looking at 12 or 10nm options, which will be available sooner, and make it easier. Once the reach 7nm, I have no doubt they can pull it off. Even under the current curve they would be looking at just over 40Watts in the worst scenario at 7nm. That can easily be ironeed out if they are focusing on a portabe design.

As far as cost is concerened, I think it is all about making a profit, and less about massive market penitration. If it has to cost $499.99, to make it viable, then that is what it should be. Though I don't think it will be that bad. Samsung expects the price of NAND based memory to drop below traditional drives $/GB by 2020, and that would be the single most expensive component. I think if they launched this year it would be $399.99. As long as they give it 4G and Calling/Texting it will be worth $800 to me, because it will be a smatphone on steroids.

http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/digitalfoundry-2016-hands-on-with-the-playstation-4-slim-cuh-2000

40W? Portable design?

Unless you are referring to a PS4 laptop. But if you are talking handheld then that is just not going to happen. 

And yes I am aware of the PS4slim power draw. But I was just trying to paint a picture for you. Even the slims peak power draw of 90W in demanding applications is still way too much. Shrinking to a 7nm node would still be too muc of a draw unless they downclock everything. But as I also mentioned, this shift is just way more trouble than its worth.



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Platina on 09 April 2017

Considering that the Pro is selling very well, no I don't think so



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mjk45 on 09 April 2017
JRPGfan said:
mjk45 said:

 I feel that Sony would have been better served by keeping their powder dry and letting MS make the  first move , that way they could have controlled the power narrative that they held.

They had a 1 year advantage.

They will likely have a 100-150$ price advantage.

They went for a checkerboard technique, that ment they didnt need as much power = cheaper console.

It wont be as pretty a 4k picture as the Scorpio's, but for the avg consumer, both will be 4k box's and they ll be left looking at the price of the system.

 

Only time can tell ultimately but I personally dont think it was a mistake.

Sales will tell I guess, if a year or two from now we get numbers from sony/ms about the Pro & Scorpio.

I'm not talking about MS gaining  a win more about Sony had a power and price advantage now they will have the price even with that the gap in the US and that's where MS hangs it's hat  isn't  huge , people like us know it's not about the power but  to lesser informed gamers it can make a difference, these people are there we heard them during the 360 days talking about MS's advantage in multiplat's.

To finish it off I don't feel it was a big mistake  , really  it's not even so much about the sales  more about momentum so just a misstep .



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mjk45 on 09 April 2017
Turkish said:
mjk45 said:

 I feel that Sony would have been better served by keeping their powder dry and letting MS make the  first move , that way they could have controlled the power narrative that they held.

No becoz in 2 years they will launch the PS5.

"power narrative" is so 2013-2014 and means nothing this late in the gen, no one's gonna abandon their ecosystems for the remainder of the gen.

I fear for Xbox when PS5 comes with new next gen looking graphics, features, engines etc with the full force of their 1st party studios.

What I hear about Scorpio from DF is that it's really good scaling Xbone engines to 4K, but it's just that, limited by 2013 hardware.

I should have said power and price , because that's a rarer combination , my thought isn't about winning this gen it's done and dusted, more about Sony and MS's battle in the US where with all it's advantage in hardware and killer software the gap isn't huge and I feel the mindset there is such that any advantage MS can get there will make a bigger difference than else where.

Still  to me it's only a small error and very hard to judge either way ,it comes down to instinct,



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freebs2 on 09 April 2017

To be honest I think video game console generations are going to become more like iphone generations, where you have multiple generations coexisting and being supported in the same moment. With newer models being gradually introduced while older models get gradually abandoned..

In a couple of years, the fact Scorpio is a better machine is going to be an advantage for MS.



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EricHiggin on 09 April 2017
Intrinsic said:
KBG29 said:

I think people only look at the launch PS4 numbers and have not looked at recent numbers on the slim. The Slim uses significantly less power than the day one model, and even the 1200 model had a decent size reduction in power use, without a shrink in the APU. Actually PS4 Slim only draws a maximum of 86 Watts in the most load heavy situation, with the front end at 47W and 4 player split screen on Rocket League taking 63W. 

There are already rumors of an even slimmer PS4, and it would make sense that this would have an even lower power draw than the current slim. As times goes on, everything in the system shrinks, and in some cases, things can be eliminated, and their operation can be picked up by other components at a cheaper cost powerwise and monetarly.

It is very possible for Sony to rework that PS4 into a portable if they want to. They can customize the components to reach the power levels they need. It would definitly be harder right now, but they could always be looking at 12 or 10nm options, which will be available sooner, and make it easier. Once the reach 7nm, I have no doubt they can pull it off. Even under the current curve they would be looking at just over 40Watts in the worst scenario at 7nm. That can easily be ironeed out if they are focusing on a portabe design.

As far as cost is concerened, I think it is all about making a profit, and less about massive market penitration. If it has to cost $499.99, to make it viable, then that is what it should be. Though I don't think it will be that bad. Samsung expects the price of NAND based memory to drop below traditional drives $/GB by 2020, and that would be the single most expensive component. I think if they launched this year it would be $399.99. As long as they give it 4G and Calling/Texting it will be worth $800 to me, because it will be a smatphone on steroids.

http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/digitalfoundry-2016-hands-on-with-the-playstation-4-slim-cuh-2000

40W? Portable design?

Unless you are referring to a PS4 laptop. But if you are talking handheld then that is just not going to happen. 

And yes I am aware of the PS4slim power draw. But I was just trying to paint a picture for you. Even the slims peak power draw of 90W in demanding applications is still way too much. Shrinking to a 7nm node would still be too muc of a draw unless they downclock everything. But as I also mentioned, this shift is just way more trouble than its worth.

A PS4P with an x86 chip that only draws around 20w is almost impossible in the next 5-10 years, even if the resolution is 720p.

What would have to happen, is PS would have to basically build a Switch. By that I mean they would have to get a mobile ARM chip made by AMD or Nvidia, like the Tegra SOC, and have the software and API in place, to easily as possible, port PS4 titles over to PS4P.

The PS4 titles would be downgraded in many ways, like 1080p down to 720p, and not all PS4 titles may come to the PS4P, just the highest selling or most asked for/wanted by the fans. While Switch is new, it seems third party devs are hesitant to port to it, so porting to Switch must still involve some serious effort, just nowhere near what it used to take with previous portable handhelds. The payback for that effort seems to be the clincher.

If the handheld is part of an ecosystem with 50mil+ customers already, it makes the decision easier for third party devs to port their games over to a PS4P. However, this is still no guarantee that third party devs would take the time to port to PS4P, when their PS4/Pro sales are already going so well. It SHOULD end up better overall than the Vita, in terms of how many (quality) games it gets, but how much higher the PS4P sales would be, is questionable.

I remember a while back that AMD was working on an ARM chip that was being made in conjunction with Zen(x86), and had compatibility between them to some degree. Whether or not that chip in a semi custom format, could be used for a PS4P or even a PS5P in the future, I really don't know, but something like it, or Tegra, is what PS would need to make PS4P the real deal.

Will PS go to that trouble, as well as compete more directly with NiN? Who knows. PS learned their PS3 lesson. Does that same lesson apply to Vita? If Switch sales take off and start drawing potential PS4 customers, especially existing customers, then I would think PS would try one last time, since things are going so great at the moment. If a PS4P couldn't sell in decent numbers, then its time for PS to pack up that department and focus on home consoles and VR.



EricHiggin on 09 April 2017

Not all, but most PS gamers and casuals care much less about the hardware. PS2 is the perfect example. Something like 30% hardware, 70% games, give or take. XB gamers seem to be more 50%, 50% and that is exactly what they got with the 360 and more, which is why it was so successful. 360 was powerful enough, and had lots of quality games.

The start of this gen was an anomaly. PS fanboys only went crazy because not only did they get better hardware for less, but XB was having a meltdown already. NOBODY saw this coming in its entirety, and for all we know, it may be the last time it ever happens. Which explains the constant discussion of PS4's power, up until now anyway.

The main audience for Scorpio are tech heads who require the best specs, 360/XB1 owners who want an upgrade, and gamers who left 360/XB1 and joined PS4/Pro due to the higher specs. The tech heads will buy Scorpio for sure, some 360/XB1 owners will upgrade, and some PS4/Pro owners who came from 360/XB1 will go back to Scorpio. How many of these gamers buy a Scorpio in its first year will depend on its price and availability.

One thing XB needs to make sure of, is that there are LOTS of Scorpio's ready at launch. If they run into the same problem that Pro had at launch, where it was always sold out, then some of those buyers are just going to buy a Pro instead, because you can bet PS will have PLENTY of Pro consoles available this holiday season.



Mr Puggsly on 10 April 2017
Intrinsic said:
Mr Puggsly said:

1. We'll have to wait and see if the new console CPUs are total game changer. I don't think that will be the case.

2. PS4 Pro is a contradiction. Its the premium console for 4K TVs, but it too rarely does 4K. Passable resolution, sure. But again a more capable console that did 4K and even did a better job boosting performance in non-Pro games would have been more desireable. $499 is still pretty reasonable for a premium device designed to work on cutting edge TVs. For those on a budget, get a PS4 Slim.

3. PS4 Pro underdelivered for a premium console. Which is why you see a lot of people saying its not a big enough improvment to justify the purchase. Again, I believe people wanted more power with the Pro.

 

  1. Look at it from a tech stand point. When we went from 28nm fabrication to 14/16nm, what that should have allowed is for as much as a theoretical 4 times boost in overall performance. Basically you can fit 4 times more transitors in the sme amount of space (in a perfect world). What we ended up with are the CPUs basically remaining the same but clocked higher (another way to go with a node shrink) and the GPUs doubling (PS4pro from 18CU to 36CU) and almost quadripling (Scorpio from 12CU to 40CU). 

    Now remember that the CPU has been so far left prtty much untouched.

    The next consoles will be on a 7/10nm node around 2020. So we can expect a similar boost in GPU perfromance of at least double or quadriple what we have in the PS4pro/Scorpio and/or even higher clocks for the GPU or a combination of both. So we will see at least 70CU - 140CU GPUs or 70CU GPUs that run at twice the clock of what we have now with the PS4pro. So basically 70CU running at 1.8Ghz which will be around a 4 times boost in perfromance going from the PS4pro to the PS5.

    And the CPU front, we are likely to see not one, but a two node shrink jump in performance. This doesn't mean we will suddenly have 32 core CPUs cause that will be a nightmare to programme for, but rather the same 8 cores but with each core having 4 times the transistors and other improvements than what we have today. And of course running at higher clocks. 

    So basically, just looking at the tech, looking at what has come before and how tech usually works..... the next consoles will have an at least 3-4 times jump in CPU and GPU performance from the PS4pro (using the pro as the base andnot the scorpio cause the next consoles also have tocome in at entry level pricing). 

    That will be a SIGNIFICANT jump. And this is before we even start talking about all the other things like Ram, bandwidth, I/O....etc.

  2. This is because you still don't get it or choose to look at it the wrong way. The PS4 is a 4k console. But only as far as it supporting 4k TVs and a resolution higher than 1080p. Its the same way the XB1 supports 1080p tvs but most of its games run natively at 900p or less. What the PS4 has done or does, is double its pixel performance. Thats the world it lives in. Going up from 2M to 4M pixels, then using reconstruction or in other cases upscaling to go up to 4k. 

    You keep saying this more desireable and ignore that fact that this stop gap bump is just enough for a lot of people. They are at least getting a noticeably better IQ than what they had with 1080p. You also need to understand that when you start adding pixels, it gets even harder to tell them apart. 

  3. Now this may shock you, but....... the PS4 is NOT a premium console. Its a version of the PS4 that has a bigger HDD and does/supports 4k gaming. By the time its all said and done, its a budget 4k console. The scorpio is going to be what ends up being a premium console; and the funny thing is that its not because of its hardware improvements (because if anyone really wanted to make a proper 4k console now it would have ended up being the scorpio) but its premium because its just a significantly more expensive way of playing the same games that exist on the XB1s. 

    Take this into consideration. By the time the scorpio is released, there could also be a $200 PS4/XB1s on the market. Now even if the scorpio costs $399 (which is highly unlikely but possible) it would be costing twice as much than the XB1s/PS4. This is even a lot worse if its costs $499. Especially when at the time the PS4 pro could cost as little as $299-$350.

    just think about this. Scorpio $499. PS4pro $299/$349. PS4/XB1 $199.

 

1. You're speculating, we'll have to wait and see. I anticipate Scorpio will be able to handle PS5 and Next X1 content at a lower quality.

2. The X1 achieve 1080p more often than PS4 Pro does 4K. People say X1 is under powered because it doesn't do 1080p often enough, I feel PS4 is underpowered as a 4K device.

3. Nice spin, PS4 Pro a premium console. It plays the same content as a regular PS4 just better and its more expensive. This is a definition of premium, "relating to or denoting a commodity or product of superior quality and therefore a higher price."

You're speculating on prices there. If the Scorpio is going to be $499, then Sony won't be pressured into a price cut. Don't expect $199 consoles yet either.



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Intrinsic on 10 April 2017
Mr Puggsly said:

1. You're speculating, we'll have to wait and see. I anticipate Scorpio will be able to handle PS5 and Next X1 content at a lower quality.

2. The X1 achieve 1080p more often than PS4 Pro does 4K. People say X1 is under powered because it doesn't do 1080p often enough, I feel PS4 is underpowered as a 4K device.

3. Nice spin, PS4 Pro a premium console. It plays the same content as a regular PS4 just better and its more expensive. This is a definition of premium, "relating to or denoting a commodity or product of superior quality and therefore a higher price."

You're speculating on prices there. If the Scorpio is going to be $499, then Sony won't be pressured into a price cut. Don't expect $199 consoles yet either.

  1. obviously there is a lot of speculation in what we both are saying. But I am saying what I am saying based on the technology out there now and th trends in technology for the last 20yrs. Scorpio should be able to handle PS5/XB2 content at 1080p or 1440p. As would he PS4 base be able to handle it at even 720p..... but thats only if we are looking at the GPU. 

    Mark Cerny said it himself. The only real indication of a generational shift is when there is generational jump in the CPU. A gams systems are built around its CPU not the GPU.

  2. The PS4pro is NOT a 4k console. Its not designed to run games natively at 4k. Its why at its introduction so much time was spent talking about reconstruction and multiple psuedo techniques. Sony made their position clear, if you or other gamers chose to call it something that its not thats left you.

    So I do not understand how something can be underpowered as a 4k device when its not a 4k device to begin with. Not once did sony make a claim that all games will be runing in native 4k. This is all even more ridiculous when you consider that son'y own customizations to the PS4pro APU is specificaly to allow for hardware based checkerboard rendering. What does that tell you?

  3. Its not spin really.... but ok; premium doesn't always mean what you just said it does. just look at any apple product. But I'll give you that anyways. its still cheaper though... and as such what is expected of it should fall in line. Here is the question then, what is the current cost of native 4k gaming in consoles?
  4.  With regard to the prices? again... we are both speculating here. But look:better drive, more and higher grade ram, more complex APU, more expensive cooling solution; those are all things that the scorpio has over the PS4pro. Those are all things that will make the scorpio cost more than a PS4pro.

    as for the $199 price point... you do realize that right now you can get a PS4 for as little as $250 brand new right? And you really feel that it would be that same price in november/december this year? Even last year when it just dropped in price to $299 in september by november/december you could get them for as little as $220. And twice already this year the PS4 has been sold for $199. 

    Make no mistake, we will have $199 consoles for sale around november/december this year. 


hunter_alien on 10 April 2017

I don't think so. MS needs to take a massive loss on the Scorpio if they want it to even perform last years numbers (for the X1 family). In all honesty it feels to me that the Scorpio is to little to late, and the only thing that could make their situation somewhat better is if they announce by surprise half a dozen massive exclusive titles for it. Spoiler alert: they wont.

Its not the hardware that made the X1 fall on its face (compared to the Juggernaut that is the PS4), it was the lack of truly unique exclusives at a reasonable price.



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