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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Bloomberg: Nintendo Traders Signal Switch Could Be Bigger Hit Than the Wii

Wyrdness said:
Mnementh said:

Well, I posted the graphs with the Nintendo-share in a follow-up-post. Nintendo shares were on the constant rise before the release of the Wii. Obviously strock traders had interest in Nintendo and were trusting in it's future. Whatever the reason, this means the development of share prices after launch of Wii and after launch of Switch aren't that comparable.

No they were on the rise because of the DS you've got that mistaken, Wii didn't have high expeactations to the point people thought it would be the last home console from Nintendo especially after the 2 year drought that the GC had in its last 2 years.

So, the expectation of a bust and the last console before leaving the home console business (a sort of Dreamcast) instead of the profitable Gamecube left to rising shares, that implied that the traders expected Nintendo to make more money? Leaving the home console business should offset the winnings made by the DS (and at that point the potential of the DS was already uncovered, shares are about the future). So rising shares make no sense if the expectation is that the Wii fails. You still refer to gaming forums and gaming sites. not traders (which are the persons in question if asked about the shares).

Even more, if it was as you say the shares should have exploded the weeks and months after the Wii-release, because it became clear the expectations were too low. Instead they kept on slowly but steady to grow, which indicates the sales were more or less in line with the traders expectations and created the base for a steady growth.



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bonzobanana said:

The industry estimates have it from 5 to 14 million for sales up to March 2018. So if you split the difference its about 9 million as an average figure. I personally can't see it achieving that figure but was wrong about the wii and may well be wrong again. I use the logic that its overpriced and has a limited range of poor performance games but I realise sometimes its not about that its about the X factor, hype and marketing.  

 

Really? You don't see Switch hitting 9 million in a year?? I think it's got that wrapped up pretty easily. Reports are it sold probably at least 2.5 mil in March. If we say another 2.5 mil in Nov/Dec for its first holiday, and even just 500k each of the seven month in between, that gets it to 8.5 million by end of year. So that'd be 9.5 million by one year from launch. And that is likely an underestimate considering it just sold around 2.5 million in month 1 (assuming the low end of what I've seen as an estimated 2.5 - 3 million sold) and its sold out pretty much everywhere which means if Nintendo gets production up it could very well be 10 million and change by end of 2017 with 11-12 million by March 2018.

It's all just opinion right now but based on lots of hype and interest, great initial sales, and being sold out your estimate seems incredibly pessismistic. Switch isn't just another MS/PS more powerful box. Just like the Wii it is something different that is generating considerably interest from more than just people who want better graphics. It's got touchscreen, motion controls, two controllers built in, great HD graphics (yes all consoles at this point have incredible graphics as long as you're not a graphics whore, and incredible graphics if you view it primarily as a handheld and as a replacement for 3DS which it also is), it combines console market and Nintendo's very strong handheld market, Nintendo can finally focus all of it's dev resources on a single platform, and you can play it as a console or a handheld! For lots and lots of people that has much more value than just better graphics. Of course now it just needs the games.

Needless to say, I think Nintendo has made a masterstroke with the Switch. The interest in it is huge which I think will bring huge sales. Since the Wii people have been saying that Nintendo consoles aren't trying to compete with MS/Sony because they are trying to reach a different market, and while that was certainly somewhat true of the Wii in that it brought in a ton of new people, I think for the first time that is really the case because their handhelds don't compete with consoles and the Switch really is a super high powered handheld that you can play as a console, and which touchscreen it can go after console, handheld, and mobile markets.



Mnementh said:

So, the expectation of a bust and the last console before leaving the home console business (a sort of Dreamcast) instead of the profitable Gamecube left to rising shares, that implied that the traders expected Nintendo to make more money? Leaving the home console business should offset the winnings made by the DS (and at that point the potential of the DS was already uncovered, shares are about the future). So rising shares make no sense if the expectation is that the Wii fails. You still refer to gaming forums and gaming sites. not traders (which are the persons in question if asked about the shares).

Even more, if it was as you say the shares should have exploded the weeks and months after the Wii-release, because it became clear the expectations were too low. Instead they kept on slowly but steady to grow, which indicates the sales were more or less in line with the traders expectations and created the base for a steady growth.

Traders expected Nintendo to make money mainly through the portable market and the handheld market made up the vast majority of the profits for Nintendo during that period, DS was selling at PS2 level and shifting more software than any other platform under that traders would still peg shares to rise regardless of home console performance because the platform outperformed the GC by almost 8 times in sales, removing consoles wouldn't have offset that as the expectations were already taking that into account.

Shares also don't explode at launch they nowhere near work in that manner I work in the financial industry they will only climb steadily until a market correction occurs which can take over a year which is why in 2008 onwards their value increased more steeply. Launch would only give share prices a tiny spike, only thing that causes share prices to spike heavily or drop heavily is announcements that change expecatations drammatically like making mobile games for example as that changes the forecast or the business.



The line is pretty much blurred. It's hard to compare it to Wii because Wii was actually a home console.

It's more comparable to the DS.



bonzobanana said:
curl-6 said:

It is way, way too early to be talking about Switch outselling the Wii. Sure, it has had a strong launch, but so did the Dreamcast and Wii U.

Let's see how it's selling this time next year.

I would of thought sometime like June/July would give us a good indicator. Nintendo still haven't satisfied their core audience with stock yet we still need to see if it will appeal to a wider audience. I went into a CEX store and they had 3 Switch's all at inflated prices (one in the window, one in the instore cabinet docked and one undocked) so at least 3 people decided to get rid within the month and they looked used rather than pristine. I only mention it because sometimes when there is real huge demand people will pay these prices immediately. I can't remember exactly what the price was something like £310-330. Maybe they sold them because there was issues with them and they were less than perfect examples.

The industry estimates have it from 5 to 14 million for sales up to March 2018. So if you split the difference its about 9 million as an average figure. I personally can't see it achieving that figure but was wrong about the wii and may well be wrong again. I use the logic that its overpriced and has a limited range of poor performance games but I realise sometimes its not about that its about the X factor, hype and marketing.  

Limited range of poor performance games, lol. What does that even mean? I assume you mean the games actually run bad and not sales performance?

Are you still predicting 9m lifetime bonzo?



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iron_megalith said:
The line is pretty much blurred. It's hard to compare it to Wii because Wii was actually a home console.

It's more comparable to the DS.

Switch is also home console despite it can be used like real handheld also, most accurate is hybrid of home console and handheld.



bonzobanana said:
curl-6 said:

It is way, way too early to be talking about Switch outselling the Wii. Sure, it has had a strong launch, but so did the Dreamcast and Wii U.

Let's see how it's selling this time next year.

I would of thought sometime like June/July would give us a good indicator. Nintendo still haven't satisfied their core audience with stock yet we still need to see if it will appeal to a wider audience. I went into a CEX store and they had 3 Switch's all at inflated prices (one in the window, one in the instore cabinet docked and one undocked) so at least 3 people decided to get rid within the month and they looked used rather than pristine. I only mention it because sometimes when there is real huge demand people will pay these prices immediately. I can't remember exactly what the price was something like £310-330. Maybe they sold them because there was issues with them and they were less than perfect examples.

The industry estimates have it from 5 to 14 million for sales up to March 2018. So if you split the difference its about 9 million as an average figure. I personally can't see it achieving that figure but was wrong about the wii and may well be wrong again. I use the logic that its overpriced and has a limited range of poor performance games but I realise sometimes its not about that its about the X factor, hype and marketing.  

June/July will give us a clearer picture than we have now, but I'd still be reluctant to draw long term conclusions before the release of tentpoles like Splatoon 2 and Mario Odyssey and before we know what their second year lineup looks like.



Miyamotoo said:

I wouldn't expect any major 1st party game from 3DS any more, expect maybe Pokemon that in that case will be cross platform game (but that matter is not only on Nintendo but buy Pokemon Company also), they are aware that Pokemon would again sale at least around 10m on 3DS in any case, we already saw few times Nintendo launching Pokemon on system that is basically at end of lifea and when new one is around corner.

Like I wrote, "in any case it more important that Switch has more stronger 1st year, beacuse 1st year will deacaide is Switch will be succes, fact that Wii U received strong games like MK8 and Smash Bros 4 in its second year didn't change anything because Wii U already was considered like huge failure after 1st year, word of mouth is also very important for console succes. Games like Zelda BotW, MK8D, Splatoon 2 and Mario Odyssey will also sell Switch in following years also, they are all  strong system sellers games".

So after Wii U its crucual that Switch has strong 1st year linuep and become very deassireble and visible console in its 1st year. Agree, in order to conitinue all this momentum, they need strong E3, and if we know that lotsa of their teams did not announced or launch any game for few years now, they can announce couple strong games at this years E3, they definitely didn't showed everything they had at Switch presentation (that's why announcement in terms of games was little underwhelming), they saved some announcements for E3.

They really needed a strong first year for Switch after Wii U's incredibly weak one, and it looks like they have accomplished that.

To sustain momentum through 2018 though, they're going to need at least 6 major titles for the year, one every two months or so. Not saying they can't deliver that, but that's a lot to ask of any first party developer. If I were Nintendo, I'd be doing some moneyhatting right now to secure some third party exclusives and/or outsourced entries of in-house properties.



Miyamotoo said:
iron_megalith said:
The line is pretty much blurred. It's hard to compare it to Wii because Wii was actually a home console.

It's more comparable to the DS.

Switch is also home console despite it can be used like real handheld also, most accurate is hybrid of home console and handheld.

No. I won't call it a home console. The dock doesn't even have that much into it. It's all on the hand held console.

Because otherwise, we would call any device we can plug to a screen a home console. That includes Tablets and such.



iron_megalith said:
Miyamotoo said:

Switch is also home console despite it can be used like real handheld also, most accurate is hybrid of home console and handheld.

No. I won't call it a home console. The dock doesn't even have that much into it. It's all on the hand held console.

Because otherwise, we would call any device we can plug to a screen a home console. That includes Tablets and such.

Except it is both a handheld and a home console.



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