| bonzobanana said: The industry estimates have it from 5 to 14 million for sales up to March 2018. So if you split the difference its about 9 million as an average figure. I personally can't see it achieving that figure but was wrong about the wii and may well be wrong again. I use the logic that its overpriced and has a limited range of poor performance games but I realise sometimes its not about that its about the X factor, hype and marketing. |
Really? You don't see Switch hitting 9 million in a year?? I think it's got that wrapped up pretty easily. Reports are it sold probably at least 2.5 mil in March. If we say another 2.5 mil in Nov/Dec for its first holiday, and even just 500k each of the seven month in between, that gets it to 8.5 million by end of year. So that'd be 9.5 million by one year from launch. And that is likely an underestimate considering it just sold around 2.5 million in month 1 (assuming the low end of what I've seen as an estimated 2.5 - 3 million sold) and its sold out pretty much everywhere which means if Nintendo gets production up it could very well be 10 million and change by end of 2017 with 11-12 million by March 2018.
It's all just opinion right now but based on lots of hype and interest, great initial sales, and being sold out your estimate seems incredibly pessismistic. Switch isn't just another MS/PS more powerful box. Just like the Wii it is something different that is generating considerably interest from more than just people who want better graphics. It's got touchscreen, motion controls, two controllers built in, great HD graphics (yes all consoles at this point have incredible graphics as long as you're not a graphics whore, and incredible graphics if you view it primarily as a handheld and as a replacement for 3DS which it also is), it combines console market and Nintendo's very strong handheld market, Nintendo can finally focus all of it's dev resources on a single platform, and you can play it as a console or a handheld! For lots and lots of people that has much more value than just better graphics. Of course now it just needs the games.
Needless to say, I think Nintendo has made a masterstroke with the Switch. The interest in it is huge which I think will bring huge sales. Since the Wii people have been saying that Nintendo consoles aren't trying to compete with MS/Sony because they are trying to reach a different market, and while that was certainly somewhat true of the Wii in that it brought in a ton of new people, I think for the first time that is really the case because their handhelds don't compete with consoles and the Switch really is a super high powered handheld that you can play as a console, and which touchscreen it can go after console, handheld, and mobile markets.
