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bonzobanana said:
curl-6 said:

It is way, way too early to be talking about Switch outselling the Wii. Sure, it has had a strong launch, but so did the Dreamcast and Wii U.

Let's see how it's selling this time next year.

I would of thought sometime like June/July would give us a good indicator. Nintendo still haven't satisfied their core audience with stock yet we still need to see if it will appeal to a wider audience. I went into a CEX store and they had 3 Switch's all at inflated prices (one in the window, one in the instore cabinet docked and one undocked) so at least 3 people decided to get rid within the month and they looked used rather than pristine. I only mention it because sometimes when there is real huge demand people will pay these prices immediately. I can't remember exactly what the price was something like £310-330. Maybe they sold them because there was issues with them and they were less than perfect examples.

The industry estimates have it from 5 to 14 million for sales up to March 2018. So if you split the difference its about 9 million as an average figure. I personally can't see it achieving that figure but was wrong about the wii and may well be wrong again. I use the logic that its overpriced and has a limited range of poor performance games but I realise sometimes its not about that its about the X factor, hype and marketing.  

June/July will give us a clearer picture than we have now, but I'd still be reluctant to draw long term conclusions before the release of tentpoles like Splatoon 2 and Mario Odyssey and before we know what their second year lineup looks like.