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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Wanna predict how much the Switch will sell?

 

How much do you think Switch will sell lifetime?

<10M 39 4.03%
 
10M-20M 125 12.91%
 
20M-30M 137 14.15%
 
30M-40M 143 14.77%
 
40M-50M 121 12.50%
 
50M-60M 120 12.40%
 
60M-70M 70 7.23%
 
70M-80M 60 6.20%
 
80M-100M 60 6.20%
 
> 100M 93 9.61%
 
Total:968

Good in Japan, average to bad in North America, and makes the Wii-U look like the Wii in Europe and elsewhere.

IDK as for numbers man, maybe around the N64 or a bit more, being a bit optmistic here?

Mind you, I said 40m for the PSV and the Wii-U a few years back.



 

 

 

 

 

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I would say 30-40 million units, and I'm being generous here. It's a somewhat novel idea from Nintendo. But what they need is to dish out the games, quickly. Maybe then it'll sell around 45 million units.



More than the Wii U, less than the 3DS.

The rest depends on the price development, software support and future revisions.

If they manage to shrink the device to Vita/3DSXL size & weight, enhance the battery life and lower the price in 2 or 3 years (as an additional option to the bigger model), they could win back some handheld fans who don't want a clunky hybrid, it could exceed 3DS numbers.



Sell more than 3ds, since it will capture the 3DS audience, WiiU and some of the mobile crowd that played Pokemon Go and Mario Run.

Don't forget that once Nintendo launches Pokemon for the Switch, somewhere in 2018, it will be a massive sucess, if it brings Pokemon Go functionality with regular Pokemon Rpg



Lifetime : 50 mil
1st year : 3 mil



 

              

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It really doesn't matter what people "predict". The Switch is a wild card, anything can happen. Of course that isn't going to stop the lucky guessers to claim they knew all along and have no Idea how anyone else expected any different.

So my completely arbitrary guess is that is going to be one of the few systems to move past the 100 million mark.



“Simple minds have always confused great honesty with great rudeness.” - Sherlock Holmes, Elementary (2013).

"Did you guys expected some actual rational fact-based reasoning? ...you should already know I'm all about BS and fraudulence." - FunFan, VGchartz (2016)

1st year: 5.5M
LT: 32M



Mnementh said:
RolStoppable said:
8m in 2017, more than 100m lifetime.

This years seems to match more or less what many say. But lifetime many have less. Do you care to explain? Do you expect a long lifetime or do you expect strong changes in the sales curve?

I expect a strong change in the sales curve. Year 1 is going to be rough because the hardware price is high, but eventual bundles and price drops will correct this. The games will keep coming and people are going to realize that there's not going be a conventional Nintendo handheld this generation as Switch is the answer for both the home console and handheld market.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments

Well if it has Mario, Zelda, Pokemon and Monster Hunter, plus some of the smaller Japanese titles, than it will sell gangbusters in Japan. Possibly even match Wii U sales from that one country alone.

In the west, it will do ok, nothing more. Again, having all these big Nintendo titles in one place is going to be a great selling point, and I think the mere fact that Pokemon will be on the system will see growth for Nintendo in NA and EU.

It is hard to say, but 40-45m is my guess. Would love to know Nintendo's projections for the system long-term.



Too early to say. If it is a true successor to 3DS and Wii U combined I'd say 3DS numbers, especially if it can get to $200 in a couple years.