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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Wanna predict how much the Switch will sell?

 

How much do you think Switch will sell lifetime?

<10M 39 4.02%
 
10M-20M 125 12.87%
 
20M-30M 137 14.11%
 
30M-40M 143 14.73%
 
40M-50M 121 12.46%
 
50M-60M 120 12.36%
 
60M-70M 70 7.21%
 
70M-80M 60 6.18%
 
80M-100M 60 6.18%
 
> 100M 96 9.89%
 
Total:971
superchunk on 19 January 2017

Lifetime... bit early to predict that I think. There is a lot of unknowns still.

Right now, assuming 3DS gets no 2018 support and NS gets 100% of Nintendo's focus by years-end, I would peg this at up to 30MM to 50MM. That is also assuming pricing remains similar to it is now and the online service is also relatively expensive since they've been pricing everything else relatively expensive (accessories, 1-2-Switch, etc).

I'll definitely revisit this topic in June when VC, online service pricing, E3 (future games support), etc have all been announced to the world. Plus, by then we'll see its lasting selling power to the masses.



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superchunk on 19 January 2017
RolStoppable said:
8m in 2017, more than 100m lifetime.

Quoting you on this. I think this is the first time I've seen you this ambitious on a Nintendo product. I don't remember if you were this optimistic with Wii even. I was... but I'm being  more cautious now as I want to see other data come in first. I may join you in your optimism come E3 though.



superchunk on 19 January 2017
RolStoppable said:
superchunk said:

Quoting you on this. I think this is the first time I've seen you this ambitious on a Nintendo product. I don't remember if you were this optimistic with Wii even. I was... but I'm being  more cautious now as I want to see other data come in first. I may join you in your optimism come E3 though.

I was more optimistic with Wii, but I was young and naive back then and believed that third parties aren't biased against Nintendo.

Though I think we could see 10MM in 2017, given acknowledgement that more "portable" titles are coming to NS. This has to be focal point of E3 I think. Showing future games that are traditionally portable only on 3DS to cement home the idea that NS is their solo platform. That with some good titles in addition to a blitz of info on the Mario game could drive a big holiday for Nintendo.... oh and bundles!!



superchunk on 19 January 2017
RolStoppable said:
superchunk said:

Though I think we could see 10MM in 2017, given acknowledgement that more "portable" titles are coming to NS. This has to be focal point of E3 I think. Showing future games that are traditionally portable only on 3DS to cement home the idea that NS is their solo platform. That with some good titles in addition to a blitz of info on the Mario game could drive a big holiday for Nintendo.... oh and bundles!!

I don't think Switch will gain that much traction in 2017. Bundles in some form are a given, so they are already factored into my prediction of 8m.

The price in Europe is just too high. The first digit of the price should have been a 2 for €299, not a 3 for €329-349. And while Switch is going to be the only Nintendo hardware in this upcoming generation, it's going to take more than ten months until that is abundantly clear.

Agree, if E3 doesn't make it clear 3DS is going away and NS is the final solution, then yes 8MM is much more likely. Then 2018 would be the pick up year when prices drop and 3DS is clearly being laid to rest.



Mnementh on 19 January 2017
RolStoppable said:
And while Switch is going to be the only Nintendo hardware in this upcoming generation, it's going to take more than ten months until that is abundantly clear.

Could even take longer. With FF Echoes Nintendo shows they are willing to support the 3DS more. So Switch will capture mostly home console users and possible new users first.



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MartinD on 19 January 2017

It will be something like the WiiU



Watch my NES Mini

fatslob-:O on 19 January 2017

Interesting poll statistics ...

There's over a 70% confidence rating that the Switch will sell below 50 million units in spite this site's demographics ...

As for what I think the Switch probably won't do any worse than the WII U when it has Pokemon, Animal Crossing, Monster Hunter and other smaller franchises from the 3DS should make it push well over 20 million units. How many more Nintendo can sell will rest upon whether the Switch can attract new or former gamers like rol said but for now I'm going to go with 30-50 million for lifetime sales ...



Kwaidd on 19 January 2017
Fusioncode said:

Oh & you want a number? Here's one for you: 12 million Switch sold by December 31, 2017.
Here's another: 35 million Switch sold by December 31, 2018.
Here's one more: 60 million Switch sold by December 31, 2019.
And one more for the road: 240 million LIFETIME Switch sales.

I see what you did there.  /chuckle

Where is that guy anyways....bout time for him to show up again, isnt it?



Soundwave on 19 January 2017

I think not making it clear that this is the future Nintendo handheld and console is a mistake on Nintendo's part.

They should be emphasizing that a lot more. Too many people think it's basically just the Wii U successor which is a problem I see right now. 



Aerys on 19 January 2017

15-25M , Maybe à bit more than GameCube



Predictions for end of 2014 HW sales:

 PS4: 17m   XB1: 10m    WiiU: 10m   Vita: 10m