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Forums - Sales Discussion - Early Nintendo Switch Sales Predictions

Kerotan said:
I'd say about four hundred million billion. That's what the figures seem to suggest anyway.

It's hard to predict when you don't know if this is the 3DS successor or not.

It has to be..... not even nintendo are that crazy (to do another handheld, after it being the main draw of the switch).

I suspect what will happend is there will be a tablet only version (without the docking part) that costs like 199$.

Then the controller base + dock will be additional 50-100$.

Or a bundle where you get all of that for 249-299$.

 

Assumeing the Nintendo Switch is the replacement for the 3DS as well as the Wii U.... how many do you think it will sell?



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I think this is going to be pretty big. I won't put a number on it but I think Nintendo will be happy.

You can see from the promo that the focus really is the handheld market, and that is where Nintendo has always been strongest. And it will deliver a good experience for home console is a bonus. I don't see this having any chance of expanding the home console appeal.

Convincing hotels to install base units would be good if they can achieve a pretty wide take up. Certainly any hotels and resorts that want to cater to families would be smart to have a decent supply of base units.



“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."

Jimi Hendrix

 

Faelco said:

Sales predictions without a price, the specs or the games... Which type of dice do you guys use?

Can't speak for others, but I'm worried about the core concept, as I was when the Wii U and the Gamepad were revealed in 2012. Regardless of specs and games, the core concept remains the same, so it's possible by using present and likely near future market trends to make a half-decent guess as to how it will do.



JRPGfan said:
Kerotan said:
I'd say about four hundred million billion. That's what the figures seem to suggest anyway.

It's hard to predict when you don't know if this is the 3DS successor or not.

It has to be..... not even nintendo are that crazy (to do another handheld, after it being the main draw of the switch).

I suspect what will happend is there will be a tablet only version (without the docking part) that costs like 199$.

Then the controller base + dock will be additional 50-100$.

Or a bundle where you get all of that for 249-299$.

 

Assumeing the Nintendo Switch is the replacement for the 3DS as well as the Wii U.... how many do you think it will sell?

If that's the case the switch needs to sell 80m units or Nintendo face another gen on gen decline. 



I really want to see the pricing first. If its priced well and a successor to the 3DS and Wii U, then 40 million+ seems more than attainable. However, it needs to attract 3rd part support, or it will fail.



Made a bet with LipeJJ and HylianYoshi that the XB1 will reach 30 million before Wii U reaches 15 million. Loser has to get avatar picked by winner for 6 months (or if I lose, either 6 months avatar control for both Lipe and Hylian, or my patrick avatar comes back forever).

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40-50ml



I don't think this is a 3ds replacement its a much more expensive product. The rumoured $350 price and what appears a weak spec will keep the numbers quite low. I think a launch window figure of about 1.5-2m and lifetime sales of 9 million. Of course the lower the launch price the higher the sales figures will be. If it was $229 for example I'd go much higher in sales numbers.



50-65m
But yeah obviously super early, when they reveal the aspect that makes this a god awful machine then I can adjust down



80 million



@ 200$: 60/70M
@ 250$: 50/60M
@ 300$: 35/40M
> 300$: Virtual Boy level sales!



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n29CicBxZuw

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