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Forums - Sales Discussion - Early Nintendo Switch Sales Predictions

Hard to say with limited information

I would dare say it has the potential to hit 100M but who knows?



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60 million



Lawlight said:
Volterra_90 said:

I think that this is it, N€ s sdo handheld + home console. So, maybe about 80M, which is more or less the current user base. And I think it's a safe bet, if they're not planning on releasing another handheld, which I think it's pretty much pointless right now. It's obvious that it won't sell 20M like some people are claiming. 80 might be a bit too much, but I think it's realistic. 50M minimum. C'mon, Pokémon games, Mario games, will all come in the same console. No way this could sell that quantity. I'll eat crow gladly if that happen though XD.

Here's what you're not taking into consideration:

1. These userbases overlap. So, how many WiiU owners don't own a 3DS?

2. Multiple revisions. The 3DS has had so many revisions that there's a bit overlap between buyers.

3. Price. You can get a 2DS for than $100 and 3DS XLs for less than $150. Keep in mind that the 3DS sales only took off when the price was cut to $169. Will the Switch go for those prices?

That's fair. Still, I think that the consolw concept is much more attractive than WiiU/3DS, so I expect they could attract new users to the Nintendo ecosystem. I still mantain my prediction. 50M is the lower mark. 50-80M is my guess.



I think about 60-70M, if Switch is really the continuation of both Wii U and 3DS. A huge hit in Japan is basically guaranteed, and with the developers of the 3DS flocking over to Switch, there will be no drought this time around even if the major western publishers would decide to jump ship... again.

For those who are asking "why not more then?", 3 reasons:

First one: The price. Switch will be way more expensive than a 3DS no matter what during the latter's lifetime, and not much cheaper than Playstation or Xbox at least early on. This will hamper sales early on, and delay the move from 3DS to Swich by the developers.

Second: A shrinking console market overall. While not shrinking as fast anymore as in the past, it's still on a downward trend. With the PS4/Pro already having a big chunk of the market and Project Scorpio probably taking a good chunk too, there is just not enough left for Nintendo to get bigger sales.

Third: Probably short lifespan due to the power limitations of a hybrid console. Though a pure mobile version could continue well into the future, the home console part will be outmatched as soon as no games will be made for the "base" PS4 and Xbox ONE/S. Which would mean creating Assets just for that console, which is probably too expensive for the big publishers by that time.



Anyone who predicts must note if he considers it a 3ds replacement!
Some low predictions are completely irrational if are being made with switch considered also a 3ds replacent by the predictor! I guess the high ones are with switch being a 3ds replacement on predictor's mind...

I mean if its also 3ds successor, how can you predict just 20m globally, when there is Japan... ;)



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tak13 said:

Anyone who predicts must note if he considers it a 3ds replacement!
Some low predictions are completely irrational if are being made with switch considered also a 3ds replacent by the predictor! I guess the high ones are with switch being a 3ds replacement on predictor's mind...

I mean if its also 3ds successor, how can you predict just 20m globally, when there is Japan... ;)

I already gave my perfectly logical reasons.



Think it will sell about 1.5m at launch worldwide.

If there is no 3DS replacement, and all Nintendo games like Pokemon and Fire Emblem etc will be on Switch, I think it can get past 50m lifetime if it starts at a good price



45-50m lifetime



I predict that the Wii U will sell a total of 18 million units in its lifetime. 

The NX will be a 900p machine

I am going to say less than the 3DS but more than the Wii U!



The absence of evidence is NOT the evidence of absence...

PSN: StlUzumaki23

If this launches at 249$.... and maybe over time goes down to sub 199$.
It could see this doing big numbers.

Like 70-80m.

 

Maybe Im too optimistic? But I like the concept.

I just want to to be cheap enough for people to buy it alone on the handheld aspect.

And cheap enough that people that buy it mainly to use for a home console, wont main it being a 2nd console maybe.

This one is probably very price sensitive (more than PS4 or XB1).

Throw in good media playback, and allow it to read ebooks, and this thing could be a huge even with casuals not really looking for a game console.