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Forums - Sales Discussion - Early Nintendo Switch Sales Predictions

Lawlight said:
trunkswd said:

These are just early guesses. I expect most of us to be way off. 

Sure but it'll be great for people to explain why they think it'll be that number. Mine is because of the general Nintendo console trend.

20M makes sense with the sales of GameCube and Wii U. Other than the Wii Nintendo home console sales have been on the decline. It depends on what the general public think of a hybrid console. We won't really know that until after it launches. 



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I think that this is it, Nintendo handheld + home console. So, maybe about 80M, which is more or less the current user base. And I think it's a safe bet, if they're not planning on releasing another handheld, which I think it's pretty much pointless right now. It's obvious that it won't sell 20M like some people are claiming. 80 might be a bit too much, but I think it's realistic. 50M minimum. C'mon, Pokémon games, Mario games, will all come in the same console. No way this could sell that quantity. I'll eat crow gladly if that happen though XD.



It'll do great in japan, less so in the rest of the world.

As a hybrid it can tap into the handheld market which has always been bigger for Nintendo than the home console market. Plus with the combined approach development won't be split between 2 systems, meaning more games for the switch, and more games means more sales.

So depending on the price, battery life, and marketing it could be anywhere from 30-60 million in total sales. If everything plays out right I could see it rivaling the 3DS in sales.



Volterra_90 said:

I think that this is it, Nintendo handheld + home console. So, maybe about 80M, which is more or less the current user base. And I think it's a safe bet, if they're not planning on releasing another handheld, which I think it's pretty much pointless right now. It's obvious that it won't sell 20M like some people are claiming. 80 might be a bit too much, but I think it's realistic. 50M minimum. C'mon, Pokémon games, Mario games, will all come in the same console. No way this could sell that quantity. I'll eat crow gladly if that happen though XD.

Here's what you're not taking into consideration:

1. These userbases overlap. So, how many WiiU owners don't own a 3DS?

2. Multiple revisions. The 3DS has had so many revisions that there's a bit overlap between buyers.

3. Price. You can get a 2DS for than $100 and 3DS XLs for less than $150. Keep in mind that the 3DS sales only took off when the price was cut to $169. Will the Switch go for those prices?



90 million

Sales will be very close from US, EU, and Japan.



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this is their handheld replacement despite their insistence it is not. i don't see this getting traction with the old wii audience but nintendo's core portable and home console audience that bought 3DSs and wiiUs will likely buy.

i'm going to say ~50 million.

1 device means removing redundancy on those that traditionally buy both devices.
handhelds are dying so the portable would have been down 10-20% regardless.



80 million

 

Edit: Only if it's priced 250$ or less.



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Impossible to know now, but probably around what 3DS did or more.



I think less than 3DS, but it's hard to make any kind of definitive prediction on the basis of a 3 minute trailer with no info on price, other specific games, and many other issues.

3DS was a bit lucky in that it had a year or two where it didn't face the full brunt of damage from cheap tablets. When 3DS launched, iPad was basically the defacto tablet and it was expensive, only adults and really rich teenagers had them, but as tablets became so cheap that even little kids could have their own, we saw 3DS sales become stunted, and Switch (damnit keep wanting to say NX) is going to have to deal with that from day 1.

I think Nintendo has to allow Android apps somehow. Maybe not all of them, but at least the most popular ones. You can't ask kids to choose between their Android tablet and Switch. They love their apps and they aren't going to give those up, Nintendo has to be the one that bends, besides you can still make money off Android apps.

Not launching for Christmas is really regrettable, especially since from what I'm seeing from the hardware doesn't seem all that special. Really a wasted oppurtunity by Nintendo, March is a much shittier time to launch. 



Just for the heck of it I'll go with 65 Million



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