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Volterra_90 on 20 October 2016
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Lawlight said:
Volterra_90 said:

I think that this is it, N€ s sdo handheld + home console. So, maybe about 80M, which is more or less the current user base. And I think it's a safe bet, if they're not planning on releasing another handheld, which I think it's pretty much pointless right now. It's obvious that it won't sell 20M like some people are claiming. 80 might be a bit too much, but I think it's realistic. 50M minimum. C'mon, Pokémon games, Mario games, will all come in the same console. No way this could sell that quantity. I'll eat crow gladly if that happen though XD.

Here's what you're not taking into consideration:

1. These userbases overlap. So, how many WiiU owners don't own a 3DS?

2. Multiple revisions. The 3DS has had so many revisions that there's a bit overlap between buyers.

3. Price. You can get a 2DS for than $100 and 3DS XLs for less than $150. Keep in mind that the 3DS sales only took off when the price was cut to $169. Will the Switch go for those prices?

That's fair. Still, I think that the consolw concept is much more attractive than WiiU/3DS, so I expect they could attract new users to the Nintendo ecosystem. I still mantain my prediction. 50M is the lower mark. 50-80M is my guess.