By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Movies & TV - Star Wars :TFA - Avatar gap thread- Updated Daily! Post your predictions! - $2,064,018,389 as of 11th April 2016! - The GAP is in the OP

 

Can TFA make it to a Billion domestically?

Yes, explain below 35 31.53%
 
Maybe, but just barely 30 27.03%
 
No 38 34.23%
 
other post below 0 0%
 
see results 8 7.21%
 
Total:111
Chris Hu on 28 December 2015

TFA should hold the top spot domestically until Kung Fu Panada comes out on the 29th of January.



Around the Network
LordLichtenstein on 28 December 2015
Chris Hu said:
TFA should hold the top spot domestically until Kung Fu Panada comes out on the 29th of January.

 

The Ride Along 2 or this.



Chris Hu on 28 December 2015
spurgeonryan said:
Chris Hu said:
TFA should hold the top spot domestically until Kung Fu Panada comes out on the 29th of January.

 



You don't think The Revenant or Hateful 8 can do anything? It will drop at least 40 percent next weekend and more the week after that when school is back. No?

Both did great in limited release but neither one have enough mass appeal to knock TFA from the top spot plus both are R rated so they can't attrack as wide an audience as TFA.





Soundwave on 29 December 2015
spurgeonryan said:
spynx said:
It may pass Titanic but not Avatar. Worldwide can give it $1.3bil whiles the American market at best would give $750mil

 



Maybe not worldwide, but Avatar domestic is very plausible. It will be close to both Titanic and JW by the end of next weekend. Then we just see how long it holds up after the holidays, school starting and what other movies do to its viewers.

It will crush Avatar domestically. It probably will be the biggest domestic film for a long time. 

Apparently another $33 million for Monday according to RtH. This movie is a monster. 



man-bear-pig on 29 December 2015

1bn domestically is looking likely now :0 I think it'll beat avatar worldwide.

I've seen it in cinemas twice already and im planning on seeing it atleast 2 more times with different people



My prediction threads:

Wii U will sell under 40m units (made on 14th September 2012)

PS Vita will sell under 20m units (made on 30th September 2012)

Wii U will sell under 7m in 2013 - I was right

Halo 4 first 9 weeks sales prediction

PS4 to be down YOY in 2015

Around the Network
Soundwave on 29 December 2015

The scary thing is it's not really even a truly *great* Star Wars movie IMO.

It's just reasonably competent and captures a lot of the feel/fun of the originals.

Phantom Menace IMO could have beaten Titanic if it wasn't such a robotic, lifeless film with dull characters and a meandering plot about trade disputes.

The Force Awakens is showing what a new Star Wars movie can really do when it actually is true to the originals.



d21lewis on 29 December 2015

I don't know why but... I don't think SW is going to make it. It may sell more tickets overall but Avatar had the added bonus of mostly 3D ticket sales.



Lawlight on 29 December 2015
foodfather said:
spurgeonryan said:

 



Well 100 million would technically do it, but they only get 55 percent back from ticket sales. Now we are talking juat breaking even with no marketing included. Once you add that in things get more expensive.

 

Depending on the part of the world, its higher than 55%, which is why in the UK, cinema chains often increased ticket prices on big movies so they get a bigger piece of the pie. UK gross to the studio is most likely closer to 70%. 

That 50% myth is ancient news. Its not like that anymore. 

I think it's even lower outside of the US. Spectre with a $250M budget needed $650M to break even.



Mordred11 on 29 December 2015
man-bear-pig said:
1bn domestically is looking likely now :0 I think it'll beat avatar worldwide.

I've seen it in cinemas twice already and im planning on seeing it atleast 2 more times with different people

It won't beat Avatar worldwide.

$1b domestic is not looking likely anymore as it has been showing signs of slowing down in the past days. $925M-$950M domestic is where it's heading it at this moment.





Mordred11 on 29 December 2015

Star Wars popularity overseas has never caught up to how huge it is in NA. That + bad exchange rates compared to 2009- early 2010 killed all of TFA's chances to surpass Avatar WW before it even released. You guys are giving into the hype too easily, lol.