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Forums - Movies & TV - Star Wars :TFA - Avatar gap thread- Updated Daily! Post your predictions! - $2,064,018,389 as of 11th April 2016! - The GAP is in the OP

 

Can TFA make it to a Billion domestically?

Yes, explain below 35 31.53%
 
Maybe, but just barely 30 27.03%
 
No 38 34.23%
 
other post below 0 0%
 
see results 8 7.21%
 
Total:111
Teeqoz on 26 December 2015
spurgeonryan said:
Wonktonodi said:

 

I think they get about 40% of total ticket sales and about 10% on merchandise sales, plus don't forget the cost to make and promote the movie. They will absolutely make the money back but not for a little bit. 

 


I believe that boxofficemojo says somewhere that it is about 55 percent back on ticket sales, unless it has changed over the past 6 months. So for me, a 100  million budgeted movie needs to make about 145 just to break even

 

 

55% of 145 isn't 100...



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Teeqoz on 26 December 2015
spurgeonryan said:

I would like to point out that TFA has done these feats on a much smaller budget compared to the others!

Titanic did it with 200 million, but that was huge for that time! The Avengers, Jurassic World, and Age of Ultron! Then Avatar.....425 million budget! TFA did it with 200 million. Sure we can argue they through in nostalgia to tug at our heartstrings, technology is easier to manager these days, Titanic did not really have any nostalgia in it and neither did Avatar, but it is still impressive!

 

Release DateMovieProduction
Budget		Domestic
Opening
Weekend		Domestic
Box Office		Worldwide
Box Office		Trailer
Dec 19, 1997 Titanic $200,000,000 $28,638,131 $658,672,302 $2,207,615,668 Play
May 19, 1999 Star Wars Ep. I: The Phantom Menace $115,000,000 $64,810,970 $474,544,677 $1,027,044,677 Play
Jul 18, 2008 The Dark Knight $185,000,000 $158,411,483 $533,345,358 $1,002,891,358  
Dec 18, 2009 Avatar $425,000,000 $77,025,481 $760,507,625 $2,783,918,982 Play
May 4, 2012 The Avengers $225,000,000 $207,438,708 $623,279,547 $1,519,479,547 Play
May 1, 2015 The Avengers: Age of Ultron $250,000,000 $191,271,109 $459,005,868 $1,404,705,868 Play
Jun 12, 2015 Jurassic World $215,000,000 $208,806,270 $652,270,625 $1,670,400,180 Play

 

Avatar's production budget was 237 million.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most_expensive_films



Teeqoz on 26 December 2015
spurgeonryan said:
Teeqoz said:

 

55% of 145 isn't 100...

 

What is it then?

 

edit....ahhh yes.....should I have said 185 approx instead?

 

Yes, that's right.



Lawlight on 26 December 2015

A $100M movie needs $185 to break even? More like $250M.



Mordred11 on 27 December 2015
Lawlight said:
A $100M movie needs $185 to break even? More like $250M.

$250M is a bit high, especially if we are talking domestic gross only. People tend to forget about DVD/Blu-ray sales and the fact that the $100M could include marketing costs as well.





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foodfather on 27 December 2015
spurgeonryan said:
Lawlight said:
A $100M movie needs $185 to break even? More like $250M.

 



Well 100 million would technically do it, but they only get 55 percent back from ticket sales. Now we are talking juat breaking even with no marketing included. Once you add that in things get more expensive.

 

Depending on the part of the world, its higher than 55%, which is why in the UK, cinema chains often increased ticket prices on big movies so they get a bigger piece of the pie. UK gross to the studio is most likely closer to 70%. 

That 50% myth is ancient news. Its not like that anymore. 



Wonktonodi on 27 December 2015
foodfather said:
spurgeonryan said:

 



Well 100 million would technically do it, but they only get 55 percent back from ticket sales. Now we are talking juat breaking even with no marketing included. Once you add that in things get more expensive.

 

Depending on the part of the world, its higher than 55%, which is why in the UK, cinema chains often increased ticket prices on big movies so they get a bigger piece of the pie. UK gross to the studio is most likely closer to 70%. 

That 50% myth is ancient news. Its not like that anymore. 

 

The 40% I had used before he says higher numbers comes from world wide, full runs. Studios do get more in some places, and get higher percentage in the early weeks, but as the weeks go by the theaters get more and more. I read an article a few years back that cited regal theaters kept 48.2% in 2011. That would leave 51.8 for the studios and distributes. While that it's one theater chain they are large and had made 1.8 billion I in total ticket sales that year.  

 

And actually studios used to get much more and held far more power but got busted in an antitrust case in 1948



spynx on 27 December 2015

It may pass Titanic but not Avatar. Worldwide can give it $1.3bil whiles the American market at best would give $750mil



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S.Peelman on 27 December 2015

Worldwide will be difficult, because of Avatar's outrageous international sales. Domestic is probably already a done deal. Avatar will be toast by the start of next week. It's going over a billion there. Let's say 1.1b. Since China cracks up the international number a little let's say 1.2b for a total of 2.3b. Put that down as a prediction, it'll beat Titanic.

I would love to see it go all the way to at least 2.8b, because with all due respect, I feel like Avatar is just a bad Pocahontas knock-off and totally undeserving of the #1 position, but who am I?



Chris Hu on 28 December 2015
foodfather said:
spurgeonryan said:

 



Well 100 million would technically do it, but they only get 55 percent back from ticket sales. Now we are talking juat breaking even with no marketing included. Once you add that in things get more expensive.

 

Depending on the part of the world, its higher than 55%, which is why in the UK, cinema chains often increased ticket prices on big movies so they get a bigger piece of the pie. UK gross to the studio is most likely closer to 70%. 

That 50% myth is ancient news. Its not like that anymore. 

 

Well in China they get less then 50% of the box office.  Also movies usually get a higher percentage the first couple of days of a movies release.