...and here's why!

There's stronger competition from the Xbone this year. Last year was a complete disaster for the Xbone until November time when they implemented their US price cut, and now that the Xbone is more competitively priced I can't see the PS4 dominating it (in terms of % marketshare) like it was in the first 10 months of 2014.

Also, it has already sold less per week so far this year than it did in its lowest week last year back in May 2014, so if it's below that level now then how low will its' base sales be by May?! (traditionally the month with lowest console sales according to seece) 110k? 100k?! :0

There's also a general trend of people just using their consoles for netflix, Amazon instant video, etc. (like me I'm ashamed to say - haven't played a game in about a month) and now that people have smart TV's which they can satisfy their netflix urge with aswell as smartphones they can casually game on I can't see a gaming console being near the top of people's buying priorities as we move into the future.

There's a few more minor reasons but these are the main ones and I'm rushed for time. So yeah, I think it'll sell less in 2015 than it did in 2014, which was 14,020,685. Thoughts?

There will be a price cut before next holiday season and your prediction will look silly.

Price cut + games = LoLs at that.

X1 did well on a fire sale.  Now it back to losing like before, and thats before the games start dropping.

How will the sales be by may, maybe look at games line up by then.

Most haven't played a game in about a month since there was nothing to play till Dying light and that is you like zombie stuff.

It will sale more.

Well, i'm from the opposite group of people who just use their gaming consoles for gamin, seeing Netflix and such can also be done through tv's themselves, blu-ray players, etc. It's possible that it may sell a little less, but i'd be really surprised with the lineup of games coming out this year.

Might be. It will be quite far behind YoY shortly because of the Japan launch. However, its baseline in Japan will be comfortably higher throughout the rest of the year, so it will likely still manage to be up overall.

Elsewhere will be close. I have said previously that if it is up this year it won't be by much. As usual, PS4 is talked about like Sony aren't allowed to do anything themselves, and have to sit on the sideline as MS slash prices. Sony will lower the price this year, and when and how much will be the major factor. One thing is for sure, it will still be market leader.

So you're essentially saying it's going to be less than 32 million LTD by 2016. I don't think anyone predicted that low in Seece's thread. Could it happen? I guess it's possible. Will it though? I doubt it. Just because the XBO is more competitively priced doesn't necessarily mean the PS4 will lose sales because of that. Many people said that the PS4 was selling based on hype since the XBO clearly had better exclusives. I find it hard to believe that when it finally does get the exclusive software to justify its purchase it sales would suddenly go down. Also, I expect a price cut this year which will obviously help sales.

Also, the PS4 being down YOY in its second year isn't a good sign for the industry in general. So I hope it doesn't happen for that reason as well.

i don't get it... why are so many people blind or oblivious to this fact? Or do I have to make a thread about it?

Every console, outside its launch window or big game releases has a certain baseline in relation to its price. Call it its general perceived value if you will. Last year, the PS4 had a baseline of around 600k/month WW.

As long as the price remains the same, that is the baseline to expect from the PS4 this year, barring months with major game releases. All Sony has to do is reduce the price of the PS4.

No.

They will drop the price at E3 or at gamescom to 300, and it will sell like hotcakes.

i can see it being down in the first half, maybe up until august. but i think when the price cut hits, then uncharted and all the next gen only games, it will rise. this year there are a lot of must have games.

That makes no sense. If PS4 had a baseline of 600k/month at $399 (and the international equivalents) they would never drop the price. The fact is at any given price there comes a point where the market saturates and sales fall away sharply. Interestingly PS3 sold ~23 million consoles during the time it was at or above $399. PS4 has very little time left before it gets to that level and sales will fall away if the price doesn't come down. The market has been trained to expect regular price cuts and PS4 cannot go more than 2 years without one and retain a high levels of sales. Because of the market share swing towards PS4 this gen, it could sell up to 30 million at $399 and remain selling at reasonable levels, after all it only needs a mere 11.5 million in sales this year to get that. But regardless of what people say about profits coming first and total sales don't matter as long as there's profits the fact is both matter. The sharemarket would not look kindly on 2015 being a significnat down year, even a flat year would be a concern. It would worry that Sony's flagship product is in trouble. So Sony needs to maintain and improve sales momentum as well as achieve profits in order to keep shareholders happy and keep the share price bouyant.

The early part of the year will be down until there's a price cut. I think Sony will go straight to $299 and the holiday sales explosion that results will cause the year to be well up. However Sony could go to $349 and just try to compromise between profits and sales and accept a fairly flat year. I think the first sing of whether Sony intends to go to $299 or $349 will be in it's full year financial report in April when it will also announce projections for PS4 shipments through to March 2016. If it projects ~15 million shipments from March to March then the price cut will be $50. If it projects 17 million+ shipments from March to March then we're looking at $299. Dunno when SOny's full year reporting date is expected to be, but mark that date in your calendar for the price cut speculations to begin.