Prediction: PS4 to be down YOY in 2015

[binary solo]

Intrinsic said:
i don't get it... why are so many people blind or oblivious to this fact? Or do I have to make a thread about it?

Every console, outside its launch window or big game releases has a certain baseline in relation to its price. Call it its general perceived value if you will. Last year, the PS4 had a baseline of around 600k/month WW.

As long as the price remains the same, that is the baseline to expect from the PS4 this year, barring months with major game releases. All Sony has to do is reduce the price of the PS4.

That makes no sense. If PS4 had a baseline of 600k/month at $399 (and the international equivalents) they would never drop the price. The fact is at any given price there comes a point where the market saturates and sales fall away sharply. Interestingly PS3 sold ~23 million consoles during the time it was at or above $399. PS4 has very little time left before it gets to that level and sales will fall away if the price doesn't come down. The market has been trained to expect regular price cuts and PS4 cannot go more than 2 years without one and retain a high levels of sales. Because of the market share swing towards PS4 this gen, it could sell up to 30 million at $399 and remain selling at reasonable levels, after all it only needs a mere 11.5 million in sales this year to get that. But regardless of what people say about profits coming first and total sales don't matter as long as there's profits the fact is both matter. The sharemarket would not look kindly on 2015 being a significnat down year, even a flat year would be a concern. It would worry that Sony's flagship product is in trouble. So Sony needs to maintain and improve sales momentum as well as achieve profits in order to keep shareholders happy and keep the share price bouyant.

The early part of the year will be down until there's a price cut. I think Sony will go straight to $299 and the holiday sales explosion that results will cause the year to be well up. However Sony could go to $349 and just try to compromise between profits and sales and accept a fairly flat year. I think the first sing of whether Sony intends to go to $299 or $349 will be in it's full year financial report in April when it will also announce projections for PS4 shipments through to March 2016. If it projects ~15 million shipments from March to March then the price cut will be $50. If it projects 17 million+ shipments from March to March then we're looking at $299. Dunno when SOny's full year reporting date is expected to be, but mark that date in your calendar for the price cut speculations to begin.