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Forums - Sales Discussion - Prediction: PS4 to be down YOY in 2015

It will depend on when and by how much Sony cuts the price of the PS4 this year. The general expectation should be that the PS4 will be down year over year until the price cut happens, then it's going to make up for the deficit and some more to finish the full year up year over year.

Probably won't be significant growth over last year, but rather something in the range between 10-25%, so between 15.5-17.5m for the year. That should be in line with what most people around here expect anyway. And that's probably as high as it's going to get for the PS4 in its lifetime, because we are likely already looking at a $300 machine this year and further price cuts won't be as impactful.



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Materia-Blade said:

so far, it's down 20% and when late february numbers come, the huge difference in japan will increase the gap a lot. people saying a pricecut is all it takes to keep flat aren't considering the variables. If the pricecut is late in the year, it will have to make up for many months of lower than 2014 sales and the cut itself won't necessarily make sales increase a lot.

true Japanese launch will hurt in comparisons but after launch it had such a low baseline there while now it will be higher with Japanese games incoming and already doing better than last year there.  Also China launch could help even the odds (won't sell 300k first week but over the year it could help)




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Nah... This year all the exclusive stuff is coming out. I'm sure there will be nice bundles. By year's end, this thing will be unstoppable.



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LOL absolutely not going to happen, the level of games coming out this year compared to last is much better, that coupled together with the level of multiplats is going to destroy the sales of last year.
PS4 sold 18.5M overall since launch, with 4.4M being 2013's sales, so it sold 14.1M in 2014.

Considering that PS3 and 360 both had stronger 1st years compared to PS4 and their second years were about on the same level if not lower in quality as their 1st, they still saw bigger than 20-30% sales growth in the 2nd year, there's no way PS4 doesn't see at least a 30% increase compared to last year.
It has about 3X the number of AAA exclusives, there's also the exclusive indies (yes Indies can sell hardware) and of course 3rd party is much better than what came out last year, with Star Wars Battlefront, Batman Arkham Knight, Metal Gear Solid, the Witcher 3, The Division, Rainbow Six Siege, Mortal Kombat X.

2014 really doesn't hold a candle to the quality and volume of games coming in 2015.

PS4 sold like 14.1M in 2014, this year it will at least be at 18.33M, although I think a 50% level of growth is actually far more likely even without a major price drop, so 21.15M is what I think PS4 will sell by the 31st of December 2015.
With a price drop down to $349 or maybe even $299 it easily rises to 25M and if GT7 launches in December I wouldn't be shocked if Sony sells a good 2M more on top of that, so 27M tops.

Considering that Samsung have already started production on 1GB memory chips cost reductions will be a certainty, APU production will ramp up even higher, as will all component costs, which will vastly reduce the price of the console at the production level.
Sony will most definitely drop the price of PS4 as this will result in huge PS+ and software sales across the board.

There's no way PS4 won't sell 18M this year though, it just doesn't make any sense for a sub 14.1M year to happen, not when PS4 did that with minimal AAA exclusive software support and good 3rd party/Indie games in 2014.

We won't see the peak PS4 sales year until probably 2016 or 2017 as the level of games and overall library of content will be much better in the future (we'll have the current library of 2015 and everything built up in later years), PS4 will probably get a huge price cut in those years too.
By the end of 2017 PS4 will likely hit it's sub $200 price point as parts will be ridiculously cheap by then.

IMO it makes the most logical sense that by the end of 2015 PS4 will have sold over 40 million, it has the games to support that and is yet to have a major price cut.



POE said:
Can Sony afford a price cut? If they can then it will be up yoy if not then theres no chance.


They should be making money off each ps4 sold by now..... SCE had big profits last quarter..... With PS now and PS plus.. They should be able to go 349 by end of year.. Maybe even 299.... But they shouldn't cut if the ps4 is still selling high numbers 



 

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JustBeingReal said:
LOL absolutely not going to happen, the level of games coming out this year compared to last is much better, that coupled together with the level of multiplats is going to destroy the sales of last year.
PS4 sold 18.5M overall since launch, with 4.4M being 2013's sales, so it sold 14.1M in 2014.

Considering that PS3 and 360 both had stronger 1st years compared to PS4 and their second years were about on the same level if not lower in quality as their 1st, they still saw bigger than 20-30% sales growth in the 2nd year, there's no way PS4 doesn't see at least a 30% increase compared to last year.
It has about 3X the number of AAA exclusives, there's also the exclusive indies (yes Indies can sell hardware) and of course 3rd party is much better than what came out last year, with Star Wars Battlefront, Batman Arkham Knight, Metal Gear Solid, the Witcher 3, The Division, Rainbow Six Siege, Mortal Kombat X.

2014 really doesn't hold a candle to the quality and volume of games coming in 2015.

PS4 sold like 14.1M in 2014, this year it will at least be at 18.33M, although I think a 50% level of growth is actually far more likely even without a major price drop, so 21.15M is what I think PS4 will sell by the 31st of December 2015.
With a price drop down to $349 or maybe even $299 it easily rises to 25M and if GT7 launches in December I wouldn't be shocked if Sony sells a good 2M more on top of that, so 27M tops.

Considering that Samsung have already started production on 1GB memory chips cost reductions will be a certainty, APU production will ramp up even higher, as will all component costs, which will vastly reduce the price of the console at the production level.
Sony will most definitely drop the price of PS4 as this will result in huge PS+ and software sales across the board.

There's no way PS4 won't sell 18M this year though, it just doesn't make any sense for a sub 14.1M year to happen, not when PS4 did that with minimal AAA exclusive software support and good 3rd party/Indie games in 2014.

We won't see the peak PS4 sales year until probably 2016 or 2017 as the level of games and overall library of content will be much better in the future (we'll have the current library of 2015 and everything built up in later years), PS4 will probably get a huge price cut in those years too.
By the end of 2017 PS4 will likely hit it's sub $200 price point as parts will be ridiculously cheap by then.

IMO it makes the most logical sense that by the end of 2015 PS4 will have sold over 40 million, it has the games to support that and is yet to have a major price cut.

1) You compared PS4 with PS3 and XB360. that is wrong, because it is the last generation.

For a comparation: the Wii is increase by a fucking 40% the second year, but Wii U only by 10%, DS is rise by 100%, but 3DS by 5%, and PSP is rise by 30%, versus PSV that have sold less than last year... The first year PS4 have sold lika a monster because the hype, that now is ending, so, if it don't will be down this year, it will rise by 10-15 %, or maximum 20%...

 

2) 25-27 M?????

No seriusly, the fuck!?!?!?

You know that the Wii have sold less than 25,000,000 in 2008, and it have sold 500k-600k in a normal NPD (2M during the holiday), and 40,000-50,000 all week in Japan!? PS4 have 0 chance for sell as the Wii...



man-bear-pig said:

...and here's why!

There's stronger competition from the Xbone this year. Last year was a complete disaster for the Xbone until November time when they implemented their US price cut, and now that the Xbone is more competitively priced I can't see the PS4 dominating it (in terms of % marketshare) like it was in the first 10 months of 2014.

Also, it has already sold less per week so far this year than it did in its lowest week last year back in May 2014, so if it's below that level now then how low will its' base sales be by May?! (traditionally the month with lowest console sales according to seece) 110k? 100k?! :0

There's also a general trend of people just using their consoles for netflix, Amazon instant video, etc. (like me I'm ashamed to say - haven't played a game in about a month) and now that people have smart TV's which they can satisfy their netflix urge with aswell as smartphones they can casually game on I can't see a gaming console being near the top of people's buying priorities as we move into the future.

There's a few more minor reasons but these are the main ones and I'm rushed for time. So yeah, I think it'll sell less in 2015 than it did in 2014, which was 14,020,685. Thoughts?

Overall I think both PS4 & XB1 will be up YoY.

Xbone has a better price now, but it's the games line up in November which improved Xbone's image, and this year it's a complete disaster in terms of games for 2 to 3 quarters so... we'll see what that does for it's sales.



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I think the first few months will be down a lot but I think the second half of the year will be up. Hard to tell overall. Good prediction though



It will most likely be slightly up YOY by 10% or less, but the first few months of the year won't be nice in terms of sales. X1 will most likely be up 10-15%.



China? China? China?