LOL absolutely not going to happen, the level of games coming out this year compared to last is much better, that coupled together with the level of multiplats is going to destroy the sales of last year.
PS4 sold 18.5M overall since launch, with 4.4M being 2013's sales, so it sold 14.1M in 2014.
Considering that PS3 and 360 both had stronger 1st years compared to PS4 and their second years were about on the same level if not lower in quality as their 1st, they still saw bigger than 20-30% sales growth in the 2nd year, there's no way PS4 doesn't see at least a 30% increase compared to last year.
It has about 3X the number of AAA exclusives, there's also the exclusive indies (yes Indies can sell hardware) and of course 3rd party is much better than what came out last year, with Star Wars Battlefront, Batman Arkham Knight, Metal Gear Solid, the Witcher 3, The Division, Rainbow Six Siege, Mortal Kombat X.
2014 really doesn't hold a candle to the quality and volume of games coming in 2015.
PS4 sold like 14.1M in 2014, this year it will at least be at 18.33M, although I think a 50% level of growth is actually far more likely even without a major price drop, so 21.15M is what I think PS4 will sell by the 31st of December 2015.
With a price drop down to $349 or maybe even $299 it easily rises to 25M and if GT7 launches in December I wouldn't be shocked if Sony sells a good 2M more on top of that, so 27M tops.
Considering that Samsung have already started production on 1GB memory chips cost reductions will be a certainty, APU production will ramp up even higher, as will all component costs, which will vastly reduce the price of the console at the production level.
Sony will most definitely drop the price of PS4 as this will result in huge PS+ and software sales across the board.
There's no way PS4 won't sell 18M this year though, it just doesn't make any sense for a sub 14.1M year to happen, not when PS4 did that with minimal AAA exclusive software support and good 3rd party/Indie games in 2014.
We won't see the peak PS4 sales year until probably 2016 or 2017 as the level of games and overall library of content will be much better in the future (we'll have the current library of 2015 and everything built up in later years), PS4 will probably get a huge price cut in those years too.
By the end of 2017 PS4 will likely hit it's sub $200 price point as parts will be ridiculously cheap by then.
IMO it makes the most logical sense that by the end of 2015 PS4 will have sold over 40 million, it has the games to support that and is yet to have a major price cut.
1) You compared PS4 with PS3 and XB360. that is wrong, because it is the last generation.
For a comparation: the Wii is increase by a fucking 40% the second year, but Wii U only by 10%, DS is rise by 100%, but 3DS by 5%, and PSP is rise by 30%, versus PSV that have sold less than last year... The first year PS4 have sold lika a monster because the hype, that now is ending, so, if it don't will be down this year, it will rise by 10-15 %, or maximum 20%...
2) 25-27 M?????
No seriusly, the fuck!?!?!?
You know that the Wii have sold less than 25,000,000 in 2008, and it have sold 500k-600k in a normal NPD (2M during the holiday), and 40,000-50,000 all week in Japan!? PS4 have 0 chance for sell as the Wii...