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Forums - Gaming - How much do you think PS4 will sell in Japan?

 

How much do you think it will sell

5 million 37 14.74%
 
6 million 29 11.55%
 
7 million 28 11.16%
 
8 million 33 13.15%
 
9 million 13 5.18%
 
10 million 44 17.53%
 
15 million 16 6.37%
 
20 million 12 4.78%
 
Definitely more than PS3 39 15.54%
 
Total:251
Mummelmann on 05 February 2015

I've maintained all along that no 8th gen home console will sell 10 million in Japan; so obviously less than that. 8.5-9 million is my guess, it's currently sitting at around one million after almost one year in Japan and regardless of which games come out for it, I don't see it doing very well.

Most games on home consoles are very western centric, the Japanese home console market has deflated completely and the 8th gen will be shorter than the 7th gen by far.

Heck; you know what? The PS3 has just now barely crawled past the 10 million mark in Japan since its release in November 2006, the PS3 did a lot better from the start (about 20% more in its first CY, and the PS4 even had the benefit of a large first week launch week in February) and released in a kinder environment and sold quite well despite the Wii lighting the charts on fire. There is simply no way the PS4 will sell 10 million units in Japan; people are getting too hyped by global numbers and the pace it set in 2014 and are simply forgetting that Japan is fast becoming irrelevant.

Final Fantasy, Gran Turismo, Metal Gear Solid and the usual suspects will cause good spikes but overall the PS4 will not do very well in Japan, nor will any other home console in the 8th gen.



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Aerys on 06 February 2015
Mummelmann said:

I've maintained all along that no 8th gen home console will sell 10 million in Japan; so obviously less than that. 8.5-9 million is my guess, it's currently sitting at around one million after almost one year in Japan and regardless of which games come out for it, I don't see it doing very well.

Most games on home consoles are very western centric, the Japanese home console market has deflated completely and the 8th gen will be shorter than the 7th gen by far.

Heck; you know what? The PS3 has just now barely crawled past the 10 million mark in Japan since its release in November 2006, the PS3 did a lot better from the start (about 20% more in its first CY, and the PS4 even had the benefit of a large first week launch week in February) and released in a kinder environment and sold quite well despite the Wii lighting the charts on fire. There is simply no way the PS4 will sell 10 million units in Japan; people are getting too hyped by global numbers and the pace it set in 2014 and are simply forgetting that Japan is fast becoming irrelevant.

Final Fantasy, Gran Turismo, Metal Gear Solid and the usual suspects will cause good spikes but overall the PS4 will not do very well in Japan, nor will any other home console in the 8th gen.


You forget 3 things : KH3, FFXV, DQ ( yes it will be announced ) , PS3 hadnt that and it will change a lot



Predictions for end of 2014 HW sales:

 PS4: 17m   XB1: 10m    WiiU: 10m   Vita: 10m

 

wangjingwanjia on 06 February 2015

I will go with an optimistic view and say that it will match the PS3 in sales. I think the Wii U will get similar numbers. :)





黑色沙漠 - Black Desert - 검은사막

 

Mummelmann on 06 February 2015
Aerys said:
Mummelmann said:

I've maintained all along that no 8th gen home console will sell 10 million in Japan; so obviously less than that. 8.5-9 million is my guess, it's currently sitting at around one million after almost one year in Japan and regardless of which games come out for it, I don't see it doing very well.

Most games on home consoles are very western centric, the Japanese home console market has deflated completely and the 8th gen will be shorter than the 7th gen by far.

Heck; you know what? The PS3 has just now barely crawled past the 10 million mark in Japan since its release in November 2006, the PS3 did a lot better from the start (about 20% more in its first CY, and the PS4 even had the benefit of a large first week launch week in February) and released in a kinder environment and sold quite well despite the Wii lighting the charts on fire. There is simply no way the PS4 will sell 10 million units in Japan; people are getting too hyped by global numbers and the pace it set in 2014 and are simply forgetting that Japan is fast becoming irrelevant.

Final Fantasy, Gran Turismo, Metal Gear Solid and the usual suspects will cause good spikes but overall the PS4 will not do very well in Japan, nor will any other home console in the 8th gen.


You forget 3 things : KH3, FFXV, DQ ( yes it will be announced ) , PS3 hadnt that and it will change a lot

At best; that could bring the PS4 up to PS3 levels of sales performance, and with the shorter generation that would still leave it short of 10 million. There really isn't that much to support the notion of 10 million lifetime or more, regardless of games. Japan has become a wasteland for home consoles and that won't change any time soon.

I didn't forget anything; I'm simply seeing the lack of enthusiasm for dedicated devices in the Japanese market. If the 3DS is slumping with all the amazing software it has gotten and even a revision; there is nothing to support any view of the PS4 somehow faring better than the PS3.



Talal on 06 February 2015

I said equal to the PS3 before it launched. Now I say definitely less than the PS3.



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retroking1981 on 06 February 2015

I think it'll explode there this year. I'd say 15m

More than PS3 but definitely not as much as FC/SFC/PS or the mighty PS2.

What are the generation totals in Japan? Wii/PS3 and 360 were about 25m? PS2/GCN/DC and XB about 30m? PS/N64 and Sat somewhere inbetween?

I think PS4/WiiU and Xone can hit 20m combined.



thedawghousev2 on 06 February 2015
Mummelmann said:
Aerys said:
Mummelmann said:

I've maintained all along that no 8th gen home console will sell 10 million in Japan; so obviously less than that. 8.5-9 million is my guess, it's currently sitting at around one million after almost one year in Japan and regardless of which games come out for it, I don't see it doing very well.

Most games on home consoles are very western centric, the Japanese home console market has deflated completely and the 8th gen will be shorter than the 7th gen by far.

Heck; you know what? The PS3 has just now barely crawled past the 10 million mark in Japan since its release in November 2006, the PS3 did a lot better from the start (about 20% more in its first CY, and the PS4 even had the benefit of a large first week launch week in February) and released in a kinder environment and sold quite well despite the Wii lighting the charts on fire. There is simply no way the PS4 will sell 10 million units in Japan; people are getting too hyped by global numbers and the pace it set in 2014 and are simply forgetting that Japan is fast becoming irrelevant.

Final Fantasy, Gran Turismo, Metal Gear Solid and the usual suspects will cause good spikes but overall the PS4 will not do very well in Japan, nor will any other home console in the 8th gen.


You forget 3 things : KH3, FFXV, DQ ( yes it will be announced ) , PS3 hadnt that and it will change a lot

At best; that could bring the PS4 up to PS3 levels of sales performance, and with the shorter generation that would still leave it short of 10 million. There really isn't that much to support the notion of 10 million lifetime or more, regardless of games. Japan has become a wasteland for home consoles and that won't change any time soon.

I didn't forget anything; I'm simply seeing the lack of enthusiasm for dedicated devices in the Japanese market. If the 3DS is slumping with all the amazing software it has gotten and even a revision; there is nothing to support any view of the PS4 somehow faring better than the PS3.

if the ps4 does reach 10 million, does that still mean that home consoles are dead in Japan? 10 million is not too shabby.



Tachikoma on 06 February 2015

Id say around 13m lifetime, the majority of which will come after the release of morpheus



Kerotan on 06 February 2015

If it can average 20k a week for 7 more years it will sell about 8 million. That's my guess. It's significant because it's going to contribute about 8 million to ps4s lead over the xbox one. Japan is still a big player.



thedawghousev2 on 06 February 2015
Kerotan said:
If it can average 20k a week for 7 more years it will sell about 8 million. That's my guess. It's significant because it's going to contribute about 8 million to ps4s lead over the xbox one. Japan is still a big player.


yeah i know if you saw my post above i said 10 million is actually pretty damn good, 8 million would be decent as well. however i think it will surpass 10 million by a good amount. (i said 15 million in OP)