Its almost at 8m with nothing Japanese to show in 10 months. 8-10m my guess

How well did MGS4 do in Japan? How well did the last console Dragon Quest spin off do in Japan? How well did Gran Turismo 5, and I'm doing you a favor there by not instead using 6, do in Japan? How well did the last console Persona do in Japan? How much better will any of them sell in a market place where consoles are far far less desired?

Reasoning with me is hard? There's statistical evidence on this site proving all this. I'm not making this stuff up. These aren't power house japanese megatons we're talking about. The west cares about most of this stuff more than Japan does. Dragon Quest did better on a handheld than it ever did on a console. A remake of Persona 4 on the Vita, Sony's worst selling gaming hardware so far, is matching and will likely surpass the sales of the original Persona 4 on the PS2, the best selling video game system of all time. The PS4 has been selling like garbage in Japan until this month. That's a fact. That trend will likely resume as soon as January sales start rolling in.

These are actual facts backed by concrete numbers. Japan prefers gaming on handhelds. They would rather buy their games on handhelds. They don't care about the "benefits" of gaming on consoles. Japan is caring less and less every year about gaming on consoles. That's a fact, and home console sales in Japan will suffer because of that fact.

I think you forgot to take into account the shrinking Japanese console market.

I would say 7 million. The ps4 won't have as long of a life cycle as the ps3.

8 million unless a main numbered dragon quest is released on it. In which case id say 8.5

I think it will sell over ps3 in the end, 12m

Console gaming has been on the decline for a good 10-15 years in Japan.  Even though the PS2 sold more than the PS1 it didn't sell as much software in Japan.  Perhaps Sony did a better job at making people buy their system twice that time around?  In fact the NES had more million sellers than both of them.  The NES had 2x as many million sellers as PS2.  

The gaming market was so much healthier back in the PS1 era when 3 systems were actually selling well.  In the PS2 era 1 system sold well and took all the sales masking the decline a bit in the japanese market.  There is no doubt anymore as the decline has rapidly continued since then.  

When we look at the million sellers by gen it is obvious the market peaked during the PS1 era with 43 million sellers and the most consoles sold overall.

first:

NES: 40

second:

SNES: 29

3rd:

PS1:31

N64:11

Saturn: 1

total: 43

4th:

PS2: 20

GC: 1

total: 21

5th:

PS3: 2

wii: 14

total: 16

Ok, I'm gonna slam this point home again:  Tie-ratio.

PS1 - 12.61

PS2 - 9.6

PS3 - 7.35

NES - 11.67

SNES - 11.35

N64 - 7.18

GC - 6.82

Wii - 5.43

At least as much as PS3.

PS4 has much more advantages PS3 hadnt

Its looking good for the PS4 at the moment, theres a strong software year coming up, I think in about 3 months the weekly base should be about 40-50k, it should be the #1 SKU most weeks. Lifetime 10 million minimum

I'll go with 6M.