I hope X1'll hit 10M before PS4 gest 20M, but I really doubt about that.
In this moment the generation is quite clear: PS4 dominates (as ps2?)

Well, it's possible. 

I clicked on this thread because I read 200m. Now it's not as fun anymore.

It could happen but X1 would have to completely break down after the holidays. I'm fairly certain that the PS4 will lose the 2:1 over the holidays.

well PS4 needs to keep outselling the XB1 at a 2:1 base for that to happen, and i dont see that happening during the holidays.

Sales between the two will be much closer during the holidays so I am guessing X1 will reach 10 MN a couple of months before PS4 reaches 20mn.

You can probably relax. x3 Minecraft's got a multi-platform advantage, i.e. it's on PC, mobile, consoles, nearly every platform under the sun, so whatever benefits Microsoft's figuring to get, it's going to be for their entire ecosystem, not simply the Xbox platform. The odds of Microsoft dropping anywhere near that sum for a property ONLY to bolster the Xbox platform are pretty small, as they've got next to no chance of ever seeing a return that's worth it. Heck, by the sound of it, they're not even going to be that restrictive in terms of what platforms they go with Minecraft. xP

Yes, MS is a strong company, far stronger and wealthier than Sony. They have the ability (not just in term of money) to spend to be on time or go back (MS-DOS, IE, Nokia, etc.).

But this time, I think there are large limits to what they can do:
- This not a core business. It has no impact on major activities like OS or Office. They will spend billions to not lose to android and ios, but put Zune in the trash bin.
- They can't expect the high return on investment they are used to: they lost a lot on the first xbox, are starting with a handicap on the XOne. But it's not just that, even Sony with 3 leading consoles (including the PS4), one half-success (PS3) didn't get high profit to that... 15 years of investisment and competition and the result is pocket money for MS
- They are already investing a lot on smartphone, and attacked at their core business. They can afford to spend in more areas, but most companies like to focus in term of goals and means, to increase impact and reduce risk.
- It's very expensive. For 2.5 billions $ you get something significant (Mojang), but you are far from getting a clear edge. How much is it to have a clear win in term of games ? What is the chance to get the money back ?

If you've looked at YtD numbers you know PS4 is selling more like 3:1 this year. With this in mind, and I don't see this trend changing, PS4 will be around 24-25M when the XB1 will get to 10M.

Anyway, on the original topic, I'm of mixed opinion about whether it'll happen. On the one hand, the PS4's shattered every sales expectation I had about it, and the Xbox One's kinda disappointed every time I expected a significant upswing. But there are a couple of things that I'd like to point out that are keeping me from going along with it.

First, the holidays are likely to be a bit of a crazy time for all of the console sellers. It's why I kind of roll my eyes when I hear the prediction that 'Oooo, this holiday, Xbox One will close the U.S. gap!' Depending on demand, it's actually pretty likely that, in that market at least, both sides will sell pretty evenly, as we'll be having a fair number of people just picking up a console for their young 'un, without much, if any research or preparation beforehand. (Heck, the mentality might even be 'Well, my kid owns an Xbox, might as well get 'im the new one!') Granted, even as I say this, I admit this might just be something else the Xbox One ends up disappointing me in. xP

Now, Europe and Asia will be another story- I don't know much of the buying patterns outside North America, so can't say for sure how much of a boost those markets get during the holiday- and so the PS4 could end up seriously cleaning house globally, especially if they don't have the supply issues there that they did last holiday. Depending on how the U.S. sales go, however, the global gap might not be 2:1 during the holidays.

Second, there is the 'Microsoft's An Eccentric Billionaire' angle, i.e. the fact that there still is a chance Microsoft will radically change the 'rules of engagement' again. While I think that buying Mojang is a bad example- because, as I mentioned in my earlier post, they seem to be looking more at mobile than Xbox with that move- there is the admittedly crazy bundling and deals they've been doing. Seriously, two brand new games AND a fifty dollar gift card for buying the console? o.O That crazy as hell Germany bundle that gave Halo: MCC AND Destiny at only a slight surcharge? Heck, even the free game U.S. thing, which was flat out; 'Hey, you know that really anticipated multiplat Sony has been advertising and has exclusive content that you might be getting a PS4 for? Buy us. We will GIVE YOU THE GAME FOR NO EXTRA MONIES.' That was a bold move. o.o God only knows what they have planned for Black Friday.

Now, don't get me wrong, the money-flinging certainly hasn't helped Microsoft narrow the gap, but it may have helped slow the rate it spreads a bit. If this holiday, and in early 2015, Microsoft starts firing on all cylinders and tries undercutting their competition to the point of obsession, they might be able to dig their heels in enough to hit the 10 million before the PS4 hits 20. Doubt they'll be able to STOP the gap from widening, they might just be able to slow how much it widens. xD

I'm thinking PS4 will reach 20m by late Feb/ March after finishing this year on roughly 17.5m. I think XBO will finish this year on 8.5m, so it'll need to increase its baseline a lot next year to win this particular battle.