Will PS4 reach 20M HW sales before Xbone reaches 10M?

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Intrinsic on 20 September 2014

Its possible, but not gonna happen by the end of this year. Actually, if sales trends continue, they basically should happen around the same time.

If the PS4/XB1 keep selling at the same ratio and those sales translate to holiday boosts, for one to reach their milestone will mean the other has already reached it or is just a week or two away from it.

2015 will be a much bigger year for sony than this year though as FF15, Persona 5 and MGS5:PP which are all basically exclusives for sony in japan will jump start that market. Coupled with an inevitable price drop I predict sales in japan alone topping at around 4M for next year alone.

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binary solo on 20 September 2014

Dr.Henry_Killinger said:

ICStats said:

Umm, I follow your logic up until you said XB1 will hit 10 mil before PS4 20 million .

Let's say we use June as a baseline month (XB1 pricecut month!):

- PS4 June 756k
- XB1 June 306k

At those rates...

- PS4 will sell 2.8mil in 3.7 months.
- XB1 will sell 2.3mil in 7.5 months.

So PS4 would reach it's milestone in half the time...

I'm completely disregarding anything but YTD sales, because I consider monthly sales dependent on too many variables.

There isn't really any way to predict the weekly rates without wild guessing so, I use the rate of sales of consoles in general in holidays, selling the same amount in holidays as they did the rest of the year. So at minimum their is a 500k difference in favor of the One by the start of 2015, right now neither are trending towards 20/10 mill before January 2015.

But the YTD is suggesting that the PS4 selling trend is >2:1 over Xb one. So for Xb one to have a chance of getting to 10 million before PS4 gets to 20 million some time in 2015 Xb one needs to be more than twice as close to 10 million than PS4 is to 20 million. So if PS4 makes it to 17.2 million by 1 Jan 2015, needing 2.8 million more to get to 20 million, then Xb one needs to be over 8.6 million by 1 jan 2015 meaning it needs to sell less than 1.4 to get to 10 million.

By my calculations Xb one should get to ~8 million by 1 Jan 2015, and I don't think PS4 will get to over 17 million I think it is likely that PS4 will be 3.5 million short of 20 million by 1 Jan 2015, and Xb one will be <2 million short. That makes it very close but still maybe still slightly in favour of PS4. If Xb one gets to over 8.25 million by 1 Jan 2015 I think it will make 10 million before PS4 makes 20 million.

So I am kind of arguing against my previous post, now. I probably wasn't really thinking clearly about what the holidays are likely to do. I think Xb one will do relatively better in the holidays than through the year. So I can definitely see Xb one selling 3 million 1 jan 2015, which puts it well beyond 8 million LTD. PS4 should sell at least 5-6 million so it's lead will substantially increase, but it seems where PS4 will actually ceate that >2:1 LTD gap is during the quieter 9 months of the year. but that won't happen before Xb one reaches 10 million.

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ICStats on 20 September 2014

Dr.Henry_Killinger said:

ICStats said:

Dr.Henry_Killinger said:

thats 12.8 year sales PS4, 4.6 year sales XB1

add that to 4.4 PS4 2013, 3.1 XB1 2013

17.2 PS4 vs 7.7 XB1 at the end of this year as a rough minimum estimate.

Meaning XB1 being 2.3 away from 10 mil while PS4 would be 2.8 mill away from 20 mil.

Likely, XB1 will hit 10 mil before PS4 20 million, but another thing to consider is whoever announces it first, not to mention MS is less likely to announce 10 mill if Sony is anywhere near 20 Mil.

Umm, I follow your logic up until you said XB1 will hit 10 mil before PS4 20 million .

Let's say we use June as a baseline month (XB1 pricecut month!):

- PS4 June 756k
- XB1 June 306k

At those rates...

- PS4 will sell 2.8mil in 3.7 months.
- XB1 will sell 2.3mil in 7.5 months.

So PS4 would reach it's milestone in half the time...

I'm completely disregarding anything but YTD sales, because I consider monthly sales dependent on too many variables.

There isn't really any way to predict the weekly rates without wild guessing so, I use the rate of sales of consoles in general in holidays, selling the same amount in holidays as they did the rest of the year. So at minimum their is a 500k difference in favor of the One by the start of 2015, right now neither are trending towards 20/10 mill before January 2015.

Right, you're saying YTD is good enough for estimating end of 2014 sales.

What I'm saying is given your estimate for end of 2014, we can conclude PS4 will hit 20 much sooner than XB1 will hit 10.

PS4 is outselling XB1 by 2.8:1 YTD... so why not complete your logic.

I'd say roughly:

- Wii U @ 10 mil in December 2014
- PS4 @ 20mil in April 2015
- XB1 @ 10mil in August 2015

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TheWPCTraveler on 20 September 2014

XB1 will get to 10 million ahead of PS4 getting to 20 million, and I think China will play a big part in this.
Yes, I believe the 100k+ pre-order numbers that some people are talking about.

I hope that the Wii U will get to 10 million first, though~

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kupomogli on 20 September 2014

PS4 has been selling two to one or more the entire year. There's a good chance it hits 20m before Xbox One hits 10m.

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Dr.Henry_Killinger on 20 September 2014

binary solo said:

But the YTD is suggesting that the PS4 selling trend is >2:1 over Xb one. So for Xb one to have a chance of getting to 10 million before PS4 gets to 20 million some time in 2015 Xb one needs to be more than twice as close to 10 million than PS4 is to 20 million. So if PS4 makes it to 17.2 million by 1 Jan 2015, needing 2.8 million more to get to 20 million, then Xb one needs to be over 8.6 million by 1 jan 2015 meaning it needs to sell less than 1.4 to get to 10 million.

By my calculations Xb one should get to ~8 million by 1 Jan 2015, and I don't think PS4 will get to over 17 million I think it is likely that PS4 will be 3.5 million short of 20 million by 1 Jan 2015, and Xb one will be <2 million short. That makes it very close but still maybe still slightly in favour of PS4. If Xb one gets to over 8.25 million by 1 Jan 2015 I think it will make 10 million before PS4 makes 20 million.

So I am kind of arguing against my previous post, now. I probably wasn't really thinking clearly about what the holidays are likely to do. I think Xb one will do relatively better in the holidays than through the year. So I can definitely see Xb one selling 3 million 1 jan 2015, which puts it well beyond 8 million LTD. PS4 should sell at least 5-6 million so it's lead will substantially increase, but it seems where PS4 will actually ceate that >2:1 LTD gap is during the quieter 9 months of the year. but that won't happen before Xb one reaches 10 million.

ICStats said:

Right, you're saying YTD is good enough for estimating end of 2014 sales.

What I'm saying is given your estimate for end of 2014, we can conclude PS4 will hit 20 much sooner than XB1 will hit 10.

PS4 is outselling XB1 by 2.8:1 YTD... so why not complete your logic.

I'd say roughly:

- Wii U @ 10 mil in December 2014
- PS4 @ 20mil in April 2014
- XB1 @ 10mil in August 2015

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ICStats on 20 September 2014

Of course XB1 could get a bigger boost this holiday. I don't think PS4 & XB1 will get the same boost b.c. Halo & Sunset will probably boost more than LBP & Driveclub. February will be another big month for PS4 though.

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